CME might be heading for earth - how can it be a 'big unknown'?

Originally posted by CaptChaos

Originally posted by mormonmike
Will it lower our taxes ? Will it raise our paycheck [ for those of us who have a job] ?........ if not, why worry about it. [sigh] mm

by burning the entire earth to a cinder, eliminating taxes entirely along with everything else alive.

You watched The Knowing far to many times. As far as i know their is no evidence of the earth ever being scorched by a CME.

[edit on 25-2-2010 by ker2010]

The guy that runs Spaceweather.com has nothing to do with the "official" space weather forecast. He just posts information that he gets from NASA and various other sources. So who's to say he isn't just wanting more views to his web page from panicked people. With that said here is the forecast from the SWPC:

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2010 Feb 25 2201 UTC Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. Regions 1050 (S19W40) and 1051 (N16E54) were quiet and stable Bxo/Beta groups. SOHO/LASCO images showed a faint, slow CME from the southeast quadrant late yesterday (estimated plane of sky velocity 348 km/sec). No new regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low during most of the period. However, there will be a chance for C-class flares beginning on day 3 (28 February) due to the expected return of old Region 1045 (N19, L=251).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (26 - 27 February). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (28 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. The CME mentioned above is not expected to disturb the field during the period.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Feb 083 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 082/080/082 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 081


V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 005/005-005/006-007/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/15 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B.

High Latitudes Active 05/05/20 Minor storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01

They say there is a slight chance for some active periods (K index of 4 or lower) They also say it will be caused by a coronal hole high speed stream and not the CME.

reply to post by CaptChaos


lmao scorch the earth yeah if we didnt have an atomsphere the worst thats gonna happen knock our satellites out but most likely wont hit us and if it does it will be a nice show

You watched The Knowing far to many times. As far as i know their is no evidence of the earth ever being scorched by a CME.

[edit on 25-2-2010 by ker2010]

I beg to differ...it has happened before. I speculate that if it happened again, in this fashion, the results would be far more devastating to a world completely reliant on it;s modern technology. So many of us humans in the 21st century, lack the common survival skills that were part of everyday life in 1859...
science.nasa.gov...

[edit on 25-2-2010 by odd1out]

If all the satellites got fried, that might set the Rothschilds' plans back a few centuries, eh? Prove that even the best laid plans can come to naught. I'm off to spend the weekend getting drunk, then if the Earth doesn't get fried, what the heck. I've dealt with hangovers before.

There was a dramtisation on the TV some years back, interlaved with interviews with "scientists" regarding CME.

One thing that stuck with me was the concentration on what the polarity of the CME is. basically desides what problems are caused. worse being a southern polarity

From what I remember its not so much about the "force" of the ejection but it potential to mess with our electric systems.

Maybe he unknow factor talked about here is that the polarity cannot be known until the secondary wave of the CME hits one of those funky hi-tech Sattethingies in the sky.

Which apparatly once know literally gives us a matter of hours before it hits.

All good fun!

I rather enjoyed the knowing for what it was,.... a film.

I find the reality far scarier!

reply to post by odd1out



There is no paleontological evidence of extinctions triggered by a solar flare

I didnt say it wouldnt kill communication satellites and destroy our energy grids. I said the earth wouldnt be scorched like in the movie the Knowing. I can pull up a few links that back my statement. :|

science.nasa.gov...

Can Our Sun Produce a Killer Flare?


The short answer to this is "no".

The longer answer is a little more involved. Whilst a solar flare from out Sun, aimed directly at us, could cause secondary problems such as satellite damage and injury to unprotected astronauts and blackouts, the flare itself is not powerful enough to destroy Earth

[edit on 25-2-2010 by ker2010]

Originally posted by ker2010
reply to post by odd1out

 

There is no paleontological evidence of extinctions triggered by a solar flare

I didnt say it wouldnt kill communication satellites and destroy our energy grids. I said the earth wouldnt be scorched like in the movie the Knowing. I can pull up a few links that back my statement. :|

science.nasa.gov...

Can Our Sun Produce a Killer Flare?

The short answer to this is "no".

I generally agree with you, with a caveat.
Yes a big flare could kill satellites. Astronauts outside of Earth's magnetic shield would be at risk as you said, though the ISS and operations in orbit have some protection from that, though not as much as people on the surface do.

But here's the thing to think about, the Earth's magnetic field has flipped poles several times. When the north and poles shift, the magnetic field strength gets pretty darn low, as shown by the six arrows pointing up at the bottom of this graph:

scienceblogs.com...
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/89ee640c5889.png[/atsimg]

So if the magnetic field strength could get pretty low then I think a massive CME could be a problem in that case.

Fortunately it seems unlikely we will see our magnetic field flip again in our lifetimes, and it's a slow cycle on Earth, and apparently not as regular as the cycle that flips the magnetic poles in the sun. But look at this graph of the magnetic field strength of the Earth and see if it suggests anything to you:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/d3542ab085df.jpg[/atsimg]

Well that graph goes back to 1900 so the first thing it tells me is, we will be fine in 2012!

But it also tells me that in 100 years from 1900 to 2000, the strength has gone from 8.32 to 7.79, which is a change of about -0.5 per century. If this trend continues, then about 15 centuries from now, or about the year 3500, the field strength will reach zero, if the poles are really flipping. but the historical record shows it actually doesn't get quite to zero, so there's still a very weak field, which might provide some minimal protection, but only a tiny fraction of the protection we enjoy today.

But we can't and don't assume that this trend will necessarily continue (though it's possible it could):

In each case, the reversal is preceded by at least 20,000-40,000 years of fairly continuous decay in field strength to about the same (very low) value, with a much more rapid recovery in field strength following the transition. In this context, a couple of centuries' worth of field decay is not particularly significant, especially since the present field strength (about 8 on the scale in this figure) is still a lot higher than the value reached during all of these reversals

But actually the field strength has been decreasing for more than a few centuries, it's been doing so for two thousand years, though from an unusually high value of over 11 VADM:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/3f0b05c4f74a.jpeg[/atsimg]

it has been decreasing again for most of the last 2,000 years. If you compare the duration and magnitude of the recent decrease (the red box in the figure below) to the field behaviour for past reversals, it doesn't look like we have to worry about the field reversing for a while - it looks like it needs to continue weakening for a few thousand more years, and reach a much lower strength, before a reversal is going to happen.

OK I buy that, and again 2012 won't be a problem. But eventually I think we could have a problem, over 1000 years from now. Even then will a big CME cause any global extinctions like the movie knowing? No, it takes a big asteroid impact to do that, and that could happen. But a CME at low field strength might cause some problems like maybe mass quantities of genetic mutations, and I suspect maybe even some deaths of animals living near polar regions where field strength and CME protection is weakest, but I don't think it will be a global planet killer like the movie.

If you want to worry about global extinctions, its appropriate to worry about it because it's happened before and it will happen again, but the cause will be a big rock hitting the Earth and not a CME.

I'm wondering whether there is any correlation between the CMEs generated by that 1 million km + solar prominence (filament) and the 7 magnitude earthquake in Japan and todays 8.8 magnitude earthquake in Chile. Is there a connection or is it really just a big coincidence? Anyone know of any studies that show a connection between CMEs and earthquakes?

reply to post by Aelfrede


It's what many have been saying, but apparently we are wrong.

Even though on the 27th we see this Quake in Chile.... Coincidence?

Found a study in the American Astronomical Society's 'The Astrophysical Journal', to do with the correlation between solar prominence eruptions and CMEs:

'Out of the 186 events studied, 152 (82%) were radial events, while only 34 (18%) were transverse events. Comparison with white-light CME data revealed that 134 (72%) PEs were clearly associated with CMEs.'

Read the full extract here (you can also access the full study text):

www.iop.org...

reply to post by NotAgain


exactly. I can't believe there isn't a connection.

reply to post by Aelfrede


There is no can't believe "Because you do" and "I do" it's that others cannot accept these beliefs because they think "Science" is always correct first time round" I understand why people do say "This is impossible" but that again is based on scientific data that is mostly theory.

I find this highly coincidental and it only raises more questions about the Solar Activity/Tectonic plates & the breaches in our magnetosphere.


A Month of Sunspots, A month of Big Quakes. I don't think all Quakes are related to solar activity, tectonic plates move all the time. However I think magnetic energy that breaches our magnetosphere only speeds up that movement.


[edit on 27-2-2010 by NotAgain]

Originally posted by Phlynx



The picture of the sun thingy ^^. If weather and natural disasters have anything to do with the sun we are in for a big one. (If the theory provides true)

[edit on 25-2-2010 by Phlynx]

Looks like I made a semi-successful prediction.

reply to post by Phlynx

The CME has not arrived. The solar wind and the magnetosphere are very calm and have been since before the Japan and Chile earthquakes.

reply to post by Phlynx

The CME has not arrived. The solar wind and the magnetosphere are very calm and have been since before the Japan and Chile earthquakes.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Phlynx

 

The CME has not arrived. The solar wind and the magnetosphere are very calm and have been since before the Japan and Chile earthquakes.

Even if it hasn't arrive, I think it's odd there was sun activity before the Chile quake and the Haiti quake. I think I made a somewhat successful prediction, even if nothing hit Earth.

reply to post by Phlynx


according to spacweather on the 24th they are arriving.. or "have" arrived

somebody on this site took a snapshot of the page. i thought i remembered reading this.. 209.157.64.200...

here is the text..

"OH, SNAP! The 'Great Magnetic Filament' on the sun that we've been tracking for the past week finally erupted yesterday. Click on the image to make the filament snap:

Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) images bracket the eruption between 0719 and 1919 UT on Feb. 24th. The event did not produce a bright solar flare, as sometimes happens when filaments erupt, but there was a coronal mass ejection (CME).

SOHO coronagraphs observed at least one and possibly as many as three clouds billowing away from the sun: movie. If any of this material is heading for Earth--a big unknown! It should arrive on Feb. 27th or 28th. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras on those dates.


I have been questioning if they knew exactly what was coming.. and when. and their obvious and sort of to me obnoxious aloofness about what and where it was heading was their way of telling us they knew but were not telling.

reply to post by Phlynx


There has been sun activity every day since November. But over the last couple days solar activity has been calmer then it has been in recent weeks. The solar x-ray flux has been in the A range. A couple weeks ago we got an M8.8 flare.

[edit on 27-2-2010 by Cruxshadows]

So what is the update with this? I have not been able to find any mainstream news articles talking about it. Have they been removed?

What date/time exactly is it suppose to hit and which hemisphere?

I had read previously that a CME can have a billion tons of solar material. That seems like a lot.