CME might be heading for earth - how can it be a 'big unknown'?, page 1

I've started this thread because I want to query the news from Space Weather regarding the CME that has come from the broken down filament in relation to another article about CMT monitoring, as there seems to be an inconsistency.

The news from Space Weather today is:

"The 'Great Magnetic Filament' on the sun that we've been tracking for the past week finally erupted yesterday. Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) images bracket the eruption between 0719 and 1919 UT on Feb. 24th. The event did not produce a bright solar flare, as sometimes happens when filaments erupt, but there was a coronal mass ejection (CME). SOHO coronagraphs observed at least one and possibly as many as three clouds billowing away from the sun: movie. If any of this material is heading for Earth--a big unknown!--it should arrive on Feb. 27th or 28th. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras on those dates."

taken from: spaceweather.com...

What I am querying is the comment about whether the CME is heading towards earth, which they say is 'a big unknown!'

Well according to the following article, scientists have been able to monitor CMEs all the way from the sun to the earth's orbit since 2007. Check this article out:

"Every two days or so, our star spits out a billion-ton cloud of particles that go racing into space. These solar storms are called coronal mass ejections. The particles in the storms have electric charges.

A solar storm, which appears as a white spot on the left side of this picture, lifts off the sun and heads into space—and possibly toward Earth. The sun isn't really blue, but the camera scientists used to take this picture makes it look that color. Once in a while, the particles hit Earth. When they do, they can knock out power systems on land and interrupt satellites in space.

Now, for the first time, scientists have been able to follow coronal mass ejections from inside the sun's atmosphere all the way to Earth's orbit. This makes it possible for them to better predict when the particles might hit Earth."

you can read the rest of the article here: www.sciencenewsforkids.org...

Yes, I know it's at 'science news for kids' but it's the only site I could find this article in its entirety without having to subcribe to read all of it.

What I would like to ask the more knowledgeable among you is, if what this article says is true, how can it be a 'big unknown' if the CME is heading towards earth?

Aelf



[edit on 25-2-2010 by Aelfrede]

Perhaps I am remembering incorrectly, being pretty much a novice to space phenomena, but don't the scientists usually say when a CME is heading towards earth? (Which means they have some way of monitoring it, which would go in line with the second article in my post above).

I think this is pretty strange. I should imagine that the best astronomers in the world would have been keeping a close eye on that filament (which by the way was nearly 3 times bigger than the previously largest ever recorded: "the largest observed by SOHO was seen in 1997 and was some 350,000 km (216,000 miles) long - some 28 times the diameter of the Earth." - taken from en.wikipedia.org...
Well they'll have to update their records now!)

To have such a filament (prominence) nearly 3 times as large as the largest ever recorded would surely have those scientists looking hard with all possible equipment? But instead we hear it is a 'big unknown' what direction the CME is heading in. This is totally inconsistent and doesn't make sense. Does anyone agree/disagree/have anything else to add?

reply to post by Aelfrede

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I'm no expert on CME tracking but yes I think that given time we can determine the trajectory and will know whether or not it's going to hit Earth before it does. But that's basically just an educated guess on my part, if someone with intimate knowledge of CME tracking methods can add more, I'd be interested in a more definitive answer.

Edit to add: Here's an example I thought of, let's say the baseball has just left the hand of the baseball pitcher and you're up at bat. You don't know when that baseball leaves his hand exactly where it's going, and whether it's going to hit you or not. But the closer that ball gets to you, the better idea you have of exactly where it's going. (I'm assuming no curve ball for that example). But it's a lot easier to tell where a solid baseball is than a somewhat amorphous CME.

[edit on 25-2-2010 by Arbitrageur]

There's more than one it's three take a look.
spaceweather.com...
That's not to say they are all coming this way but there is three.

Well at least we know when they should get here 27th/28th should be some good auroras on those dates.

THANKYOU

. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras on those dates.

Source

Nothing I'd be worried about, just more sky lights and auroras.
Sounds like our Sun produces these all the time.

reply to post by Aelfrede

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Did the now discredited Ed Dames predict such an event? As I remember the earth has already had a warning event, a "shot across the bow", according to Ed Dames.

If this CME hits the earth full force, a big if here, industrialized society could be pushed back a few years. We don't have complete land line back up of our communications.

Hopefully it will just drift by and create some northern lights type effects.

I found a good explination on how they determine whether or not a CME is Earth-directed or not on the NASA site.

www-istp.gsfc.nasa.gov...

The picture of the sun thingy ^^. If weather and natural disasters have anything to do with the sun we are in for a big one. (If the theory provides true)

[edit on 25-2-2010 by Phlynx]

reply to post by Aelfrede

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The current CME is not the normal kind. It is a rare occurance and the data they have from normal CME's may not apply to this one.
On a personal note, I think it will apply, they are just Covering Their A's.


[edit on 25-2-2010 by Ratkiller]

reply to post by Ratkiller

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Can you tell me what is abnormal about the CME?

reply to post by Phage

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hey Phage i am interested to hear your take on this your words are at least based on facts not speculations is this a new danger or just a regular day in the neighborhood

reply to post by triplescorpio

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Judging from the SOHO images I reckon that the CME won't impact us at all, it seems to be heading in the wrong direction. But even if we get a direct hit it doesn't appear to be much of a CME. There was no associated x-ray flare, an indication that it was nothing special. If it did indeed originate from the prominence we've been watching (likely) it will be a very short lived blast, not a lot of material.

From what I can see there is little to be concerned about but it's impossible to avoid some speculation. We won't really know until (and if) it reaches us.

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