posted on May, 29 2004 @ 04:31 AM
Russia is still pressing the issue of building a reactor for Iran. If the Russians are in fact helping us track down a possible Iranian boomer, then
the Russians are being uncharacteristically honest about the peaceful intent of their reactor project. Frankly I have a hard time believing that the
Russians are being helpful unless somebody has a gun to Putin's head. As or the Russian fleet being deployed, I need to see a link.
Now for motive. Why in the hell would Iran want to mount a first strike? A blackmail operation with the goal of forcing the west out of the region and
unifying the middle east has always been what was expected. Why destroy the world when you can become a major power in it instead. Why play
tic-tac-toe win poker will work better?
The sane one: I find your prediction unlikely, and your expected outcome impossible. Let's think about this. An Arab coalition (likely core members
are Iran, Syria, Jordan, Egypt... it would take a hard-line coup to bring Saudi into the war actively.) invades Iraq, and America can't hold. We
don't just sit there and wait to be over-run.
1. We attack right through Syria and Jordan, taking them out of the equation and linking up with Israel, with the goal of holding the Straight of Suez
against the Egyptians and having Turkey attack from the North to cut Iranian lines of supply.
or if we don't trust NATO to save our butt in such a precarious situation,
2. We move North, unopposed, into Turkey where we pressure NATO for assistance (having put them in the combat zone already) and prepare a counter
offensive to begin within 1-2 months, while reinforcing Israel's hold on Suez and making incursions from Turkey to relieve pressure on Israel's
Either way America escapes Iraq with major losses of equipment but gets a blank check to invade any thing and everything in the middle east. We'd
could move enough equipment to counter attack within a couple of months, especially if we could bring the Europeans into it by promising Marhsall Plan
style reconstruction. Within 6 months the full might of American power can be brought to bear, Gulf War I style, and within 8-12 months of the
beginning, American troops will be at the heart of prison abuse scandals in every country from Egypt to Iran.
1 year of pan arab war, a few thousand American casualties, a couple hundred billion dollars, and total control over the middle east. It's the
American government's wet-dreams come true. If Iran tries to nuke somebody, Donald Rumsfeld had better hope the bomb goes off, because its sure to
have a "made in the USA" sticker on it.