Originally posted by grantbeed
Kaku has been posted on ATS several times in the last few months talking of this.
But in reality the next solar maximum is not due until the first quarter of 2013, and it's expected to be a relatively low maximum too.
I do agree that ahuge storm could have severe effects on our satellites etc, but there is no link with 2012 what so ever.
An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.
If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
science.nasa.gov...
Right, because the traditional 11yr model worked so well in predicting the minimum we just went through. Surely NASA has those predictions nailed down. Why were they wrong with this minimum? What causes a prolonged minimum to occur? Does a long minimum mean the next cycle will be low, or will it be like seismic activity where the longer you suppress that energy, the faster and hotter it will pop when it finally does wake up?
Face it, we are talking cycles here. The sun has its cycles, as does the Earth, moon and even us humans. Some cycles are brief - like a heartbeat. Some are longer like solar magnetic reversal (11yr). Some are REALLY long. Is the sun nearing the end/beginning of a REALLY long cycle which we humans have never recorded (accurately) yet? It is entirely possible.
And yes, the 11yr solar cycle could coincide with the Mayan long-count calendar. It seems many cycles that are terrestrial, solar, human, economic etc all culminate at/around that 2012 date. They don't all seem to hit right on the head, but if it is a big enough event that it may take place over a period (like a year) rather than an instant (like 11:11am 12,21,2012) then we could expect to see all of these cycles hit between 2011 and 2013.
And you can have a devastating CME anytime +/- 3 years from a maximum. If the initial guesstimate of a maximum based on 11 year cycles was late 2012/early 2013 (previous max at 1991, 2002) then you are looking at 2010 to 2016 as being the period of highest likelihood for a major CME. The odds are greatest in the middle of that range.
Now NASA is pushing the maximum date toward 2014. That is fine by me, but the reality here is that nobody knows why the sun deviated from its cycle and nobody knows what will happen when it gets 'back on track'.
I'd say Kaku is probably on target. A large portion of mankind relies on electricity in today's day and age. What happens when that all goes away in an instant?
