Mother Earth appears to be solving global warming on her own!, page 1

Why has global warming paused? Water vapor may be in the answer.

A decade-long plateau in global warming appears to have occurred in large part because the stratosphere – the layer of atmosphere that few but airliners enter – got drier.

That’s an explanation by a team of atmospheric scientists from the United States and Germany. They’ve studied trends in stratospheric water vapor over the past 30 years and calculated the effects of those trends on temperatures.

A decline in stratospheric water vapor between 2000 and 2009 followed an apparent increase between 1980 and 2000, according to balloon and satellite measurements that the team used. The decline slowed the long-term growth in global average temperatures by some 25 percent, compared with the warming one could expect from rising concentrations of greenhouse gases alone, the team estimates.

...

One of the "grand challenges" that researchers now face is trying to figure out whether the variability that Solomon and her colleagues have identified represents a natural swing in climate or whether it represents a broader climate feedback that might over the long term offset the effects of what scientists say is human-triggered global warming.

Solomon and others say they suspect that the decline she and her colleagues found represents a natural cycle in the climate system.

If it turns out to be a longer-term feedback, "it doesn't upset the apple cart altogether," she says. But, she adds, it would represent an offset to global warming that scientists would have to account for in their projections of how the climate system responds to increasing levels of greenhouse gases.

Sometimes things happen despite our efforts.

reply to post by loam

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Water vapor is a greenhouse gas. But only close to the surface. In the higher atmosphere, it forms clouds. Clouds reflect sunlight, resulting in an overall cooling effect.

Another contributor could have been sulfate aerosols from the rising number of coal-fired power plants in China, point out researchers such as Drew Shindell, with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

This is a more likely explanation than a lack of water vapor. Aerosols have the same basic effect as clouds (seeing as clouds are just large aerosol clumps) and reflect sunlight as well. However they don't stay in the atmosphere. A chemical analysis of global rainwater could easily tell us how much of an effect china's increased pollution is having in this regard.

reply to post by TheWalkingFox

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More from the authors of the study:

Water vapor is a highly variable gas and has long been recognized as an important player in the cocktail of greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, halocarbons, nitrous oxide, and others—that affect climate.

“Current climate models do a remarkable job on water vapor near the surface. But this is different — it’s a thin wedge of the upper atmosphere that packs a wallop from one decade to the next in a way we didn’t expect,” says Susan Solomon, NOAA senior scientist and first author of the study.

Since 2000, water vapor in the stratosphere decreased by about 10 percent. The reason for the recent decline in water vapor is unknown. The new study used calculations and models to show that the cooling from this change caused surface temperatures to increase about 25 percent more slowly than they would have otherwise, due only to the increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

...

An increase in stratospheric water vapor in the 1990s likely had the opposite effect of increasing the rate of warming observed during that time by about 30 percent, the authors found.

The stratosphere is a region of the atmosphere from about eight to 30 miles above the Earth’s surface. Water vapor enters the stratosphere mainly as air rises in the tropics. Previous studies suggested that stratospheric water vapor might contribute significantly to climate change. The new study is the first to relate water vapor in the stratosphere to the specific variations in warming of the past few decades.

Stratospheric Water Vapor is a Global Warming Wild Card

reply to post by TheWalkingFox

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So, saying what you just said in this comment.

Should we build more coal fired plants? You ARE saying it may be the plants that are cooling aren't you?

First its the CO2 causing global warming, now someone is saying the coal plants may be cooling the planet.

I wish the propagandists would get their stories straight.

reply to post by malcr

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You mean the same global warming scam artists "predicted" this.


No matter what happens, it is the fault of man made global warming.

Get a grip.

reply to post by mc_squared

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Originally posted by mc_squared
Climate deniers just grab any straw they can to absolve themselves of all social responsibility however they see fit.

And there is the equal truth that some "believers" will grab any straw to justify their desire to impose their will on others.

I'm sufficiently sick of both sides of the argument. I'm convinced the deceit and political motivations run deep at both extremes.

Me?

I'm hoping for a return to the science and our ability to weed through the BS.

This thread announces yet another poorly understood mechanism affecting global climate. Call it what you will, but it is another piece of the puzzle that deserves to be understood.

reply to post by Lemon.Fresh

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I agree. I have said the same thing in quite a few threads.

I am old though so no one listens to me.


As always great thrad loam.

Raist

reply to post by loam

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It's winter?

See if global warming is still "paused" this summer.

reply to post by loam

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And exactly how much has it warmed in the last 20 years? You Eco-nut's never stop amazing me with your over the top attitudes. Let me guess the next thing will be global cooling right? Give it a rest find a new hobby you lost. Plant a garden and worry about your backyard and leave everybody else's alone.

reply to post by Subjective Truth

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I can see 'reading' is actually a strong suit of yours.

reply to post by loam

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Oh great! The polar ice caps are coming back!!!!

Originally posted by loam
reply to post by Subjective Truth

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I can see 'reading' is actually a strong suit of yours.

You cannot expect everyone on the internet to read loam. After all with all the pictures on the internet who needs to read what another person is actually writing? See what you should have done is just made a picture story so everyone could understand.


I was talking with my wife about this subject last night. Well okay, not this one in particular but along the general lines of it anyway. I told her that I think this has been taking place since I could remember. In the late 70’s here there was a blizzard of sorts with over 12” of snow. There were a few summers in the 80’s that were incredibly hot a few winters later and we were hammered once again with a large degree of snow. Again this took place in the early to mid 90’s and now it has come back around.

The temperature might have risen or dropped a slight amount through all of this but the weather patterns here are not really any different. Of course they are always crazy here but that is to be expected with Missouri weather.



Raist

reply to post by Raist

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Yeah the weather changes from year to year but the planet itself shouldn't change. You still had polar ice caps when you were a kid. Your kids won't.

When the ice at the poles disappears it means the planet is warming up. You cannot get those back once they are gone.

Then the people of earth will cry and cry...Why didn't anyone do anything 50 years ago when we could have stopped this? Why didn't anyone tell us this would happen?

Well in the beginning of this century many people ignored the science and denied the planet was warming. They convinced others the planet wasn't warming and so here we are...aflame.
I can hear it now..."DENIED THE SCIENCE!!!???

But then it will be too late.

reply to post by loam

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S & F.

Good old Mother Nature always beats us ignorant humans - and long may she reign.

In spite of our attempts to wreck the planet, she steps in and saves it.

Brilliant.

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