Earthquake Risk: Seismic Gap South of Istanbul Poses Extreme Danger

Earthquake Risk: Seismic Gap South of Istanbul Poses Extreme Danger

www.sciencedaily.com

The chain of earthquakes along the North Anatolian fault shows a gap south of Istanbul. The expected earthquakes in this region represent an extreme danger for the Turkish megacity.

(visit the link for the full news article)

A new computer study now shows that the tensions in this part of the fault zone could trigger several earthquakes instead of one individual large quake event. If this is actually fact then why is it not common knowledge? or is it?
Surely it would be better to put things inplace now and be ready thean to have a repeat of what has just happened in Haiti?

www.sciencedaily.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

weather has been acting weird lately,It rained like crazy here in Vegas today, and that doesnt happen often, but I guess thats because of the storm from california(they got hit hard). I wonder if we really are going through some sort of gravitational pole shifting(no pun intended) causing these quakes. Is this it? ohhhhhhhh fear mongering.

Originally posted by enca78
If this is actually fact then why is it not common knowledge? or is it?
Surely it would be better to put things inplace now and be ready thean to have a repeat of what has just happened in Haiti?

www.sciencedaily.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

Unfortunately people who live on fault zones take the risk for granted, San Francisco is a good example. vis.

The latest assessment of earthquake risk for the San Francisco Bay region has not changed the odds much, but a lot has changed behind the numbers. Working Group 2002 (WG02), a committee of about 100 earthquake experts, issued its report for maximum impact during the same week as the 1906 San Francisco earthquake's 97th anniversary. The report is on the Web in two versions, one for a general audience and another for more technical readers with all the supporting detail.

The ten-second soundbite version of this report? Between 2003 and 2032, there's a 62 percent chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater somewhere in the Bay region, between Monterey and Mendocino. There's an 80 percent chance of one between 6.0 and 6.7. The map includes lots more detail. This is not an earthquake prediction, but rather a statement of the odds.

More here.
geology.about.com...

Note there is no mention of the 32% chance for a magnitude 8, San Francisco has an approximate 80 year cycle for large quakes, now 30 years overdue, the greater the pressure build up the greater the risk for a large quake.

Mankind needs more funds for research and better sensors along fault lines now that we this scientific generation are more aware of how quakes happened.

Where is the political and scientific leadership and will to act in advance, rather than later when lives are lost?

Sigh... when we will ever learn to do and fund that which really matters now than later?

Even if you are told a quake may happen 'this week' for example it wont help much if you stay in the 'zone'.... the devastation in Haiti happened in 7 seconds... barely enough time to think "what's that? Oh no... run!" let alone get out to 'safe' ground is it

First of all, human habitation should never had been allowed along Earth's fault lines.

Secondly, if compromises are necessary for habitation, at least single storey wood constructions or quake resistant architecture be construsted instead of pure reinforced concrete beams.

Thirdly, if there was warning, as long as it had been scientifically predicted and NOT 'climategate' style, inhabitants along the fault lines should take extra precautions such as moving to safer areas or conduct quake drills with the national emergency authorities.

Work and living while is important, but it is not as important as life itself. There must be political leadership in such cases, for scientific warnings are not psychic dribbles, and best be heeded.

Needless human lives had been lost in Haiti. Let's not allowed another tragedy to occur somewhere. Solar activity is becoming stronger recently and may be a reason affecting Earth's divided crusts.

[edit on 20-1-2010 by SeekerofTruth101]

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101


Needless human lives had been lost in Haiti. Let's not allowed another tragedy to occur somewhere. Solar activity is becoming stronger recently and may be a reason affecting Earth's divided crusts.

[edit on 20-1-2010 by SeekerofTruth101]

OK so lets say for example 'they' knew about teh quake in Haiti a day before... How would you move the people? Where to? Who would do it / pay for it?

And how would you predict what part of Haiti to evacuate? Or are you planning on having the whole of the globe deserted along 'fault lines' ?

WE are going to go broke just giving all these people that can't and or wont take care of themselves in the first place. So here is a scenario for ya, all this devastation keeps happening everywhere, and who comes to the rescue? the US, so after we had depleted all our reserves helping everyone else out. Who is gonna feed and water our nation when disaster strikes our country? No ONE The majority of the world does not like us. I personally believe if this quake zone becomes an issue, we need to stay out of it.

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101
First of all, human habitation should never had been allowed along Earth's fault lines.

True,but as a species we are notorious when it come to living in crazy places,like on faults or by volcanoes or floodplains-we never learn it seems,although many of these places are also key to our species,with major waterways,good soil etc.
Its a tricky balance we try to maintain I guess.

_________________________________________________________________________

From the OP article:

A new computer study now shows that the tensions in this part of the fault zone could trigger several earthquakes instead of one individual large quake event.

I have to question anything tagged "computer model."The "model" is only ever as good as the data collected-but more importantly,the data is only EVER as good as the people who collect and interpret it,and that often depends on the people that these scientists/data collecters serve or are paid by.
Then of course,theres the software used,and the computers themselves...
As we have seen with recent *Ahem* global warming models,mistakes can be made,or data can be manipulated and even faked.

the tensions in this part of the fault zone could trigger several earthquakes instead of one individual large quake event.

www.sciencedaily.com...

I do hope this is a mistake by the computer models,because a series of earthquakes in that region would probably be blamed on the US weapons by extremists in the area to drum up support...stranger things have happened.

One more thing,I forget the name,but there was someone a month or so back claiming that 2010 would be the year of earthquakes-anyone know who I am talking about?
I wish I could remember,as I would like to know what he based his prediction on.

Any ideas?

reply to post by yzzyUK


Which is where my, an insignificant self, call for research and funding into better quake sensor equipment to predict quake disasters, which are not far from our current tech knowledge!

No point in wringing our necks and tears when disasters strikes, for quakes happen frequently on Earth throughout recorded history. Millions of lives can be saved with better equipment and better study where the fault lines are MOST active at the current moment within weeks or months.

If at worst we knew the day when it strikes, limiting advanced warnings, then at least the masses be warned to take precautions, military on standby, emergency authorites ready and equipped, schools closed for a day, biz unless essential, take a break, for it had been scientific warnings.

Every nation has its reserves in treasuries meant for rainy days like these, and it would be criminal for any political party that neglects it and will be remembered. Stockpiles would have been ready.

If it comes, everyone would be prepared, for the few as not many human habitations are along fault lines anyway. Haiti had happened, let us learn from this lesson and not wait for another to happen. This is all I, a nobody and powerless, but a fellow human, ask.

how bout we get back on topic. istanbul is a treasure trove of historical finds. if a huge quake(s) were to occur there itd be a historians nightmare. istanbul has a population of millions and sits right between the agean and black seas.. i wonder if a big quake would sink the city?

Earth quakes there are common. It is rarely mentioned, but the Hagia Sophia WAS rebuilt during an Earthquake around the time of its construction. Most structures there were built on the idea that they last until a certain point, and then it all goes to hell.

Originally posted by TheCoffinman
how bout we get back on topic. istanbul is a treasure trove of historical finds. if a huge quake(s) were to occur there itd be a historians nightmare. istanbul has a population of millions and sits right between the agean and black seas.. i wonder if a big quake would sink the city?

Man I hope not,I do not want to see the amazing catacoombs get damaged.That would be a sad day for humanity.

www.anthroarcheart.org...

But never mind the historical importance,the people who live there today should be our main concern-If only we could create a computer model which got it all right so that we could save lives..

I just cannot help thinking that todays computer models are like the ancient seers or prophets-Some get it right,some do not.
No matter what data or technology we thow at the computer models,some will be wrong.
I hope this one is wrong for the sake of evryone who lives in Turkey and the area.