Yawn: Another Day, Another Yellowstone Earthquake Swarm

So as I sit here watching another earthquake swarm happening before my eyes in the GEE program, and this time on the west side of the caldera, as opposed to in and around Lake Yellowstone like the last ones - no amount of pondering the shallow depth of these quakes will sway me this time into any kind of panic that the park is going to blow. Nope, sorry.

For as the uninitiated contemplate the worst, the scientists at the YVO sit there laughing. Because to them, and now me, this is just another bump in the long road ahead towards that fateful day, which technically, despite this and the other recent swarms, show no signs of being even remotely close- other than the swarms themselves- to the cataclysmic eruption the doomsayers seem to secretly wish upon. As if some kind of magic salvation would be at hand if it did erupt.

The truth is, according to the latest report from the YVO here-

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO OBSERVATORY MONTHLY UPDATE
Monday, January 4, 2010 11:32 AM MST (Monday, January 4, 2010 18:32 UTC)


YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO (CAVW #1205-01-)
44°25'48" N 110°40'12" W, Summit Elevation 9203 ft (2805 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Current Aviation Color Code: GREEN

December 2009 Yellowstone Seismicity Summary

During the month of December 2009, 70 earthquakes were located in the Yellowstone National Park region. The largest event was a magnitude 2.2 on December 18 at 1:38 PM MST, located about 8 miles north northeast of West Yellowstone, MT. No earthquake swarms were recorded in December.

Earthquake activity in the Yellowstone region is at relatively normal background levels.

Ground Deformation Summary: Continuous GPS data show that uplift of the Yellowstone Caldera has slowed significantly and may have stopped. The WLWY station, located in the northeastern part of the caldera, underwent a total of ~23 cm of uplift between mid-2004 and mid-2009. Its record can be found at:
pboweb.unavco.org...

The general uplift and subsidence of the Yellowstone caldera is of scientific importance and will continue to be monitored closely by YVO staff.

An article on the recent uplift episode at Yellowstone and discussion of long-term ground deformation at Yellowstone and elsewhere can be found at: volcanoes.usgs.gov...

Emphasis mine. And now hopefully yours. Now granted, this does not include commentary (yet) on this latest swarm, but so what? It's just another earthquake swarm at Yellowstone. Big whoop. Yawn again.

While no one can be absolutely certain, it's going take a whole lot of elements coming together before these guys are going to sound any kind of alarm at a few more 3.0 magnitude earthquakes in Yellowstone. Ground deformation has slowed to a crawl, despite these new quakes. Gas emissions appear ordinary. Water tables levels fluctuate as usual, but nothing over the top. It appears to again be nothing more than either some minor magma movement or geothermal activity under the western side of the caldera. Which the park overall has in abundance, and has had for decades and centuries.

The scientists at the YVO and USGS are used it and deal with it constantly. So maybe it's time the rest of us get a clue. No eruption for joo.

See the latest quakes here:

www.seis.utah.edu...

And they appear to be happening at Madison River, which you can see the webicorder graphs here:

www.quake.utah.edu...

I will mention that it's interesting that the Madison River station is not available at the moment in GEE- at least I have not been able to pick it up, no matter what channels I choose. Any of you have any luck getting that station?

But hey, if it's not going to blow, then who cares, right?

reply to post by TrueAmerican


This brings to mind the story of the boy who cried wolf. . . . there is a swarm...people are like omg we are all gonna die...nothing happens...time passes....there is a swarm...again...omg doom and gloom...nothing happens....then one day there is a swarm...no one pays any attention...screw it...this happens all the time and leads to nothing... yawn... no big deal.... but suddenly......Kablewy!!!!!!!! It never hurts to be aware and prepared for any disaster!

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I hope you have a very big wooden table to knock on... and some salt to throw over your shoulder...

This is really not an event I would want to jinx myself on. We are early in the ball game but this swarm seemed to start out a little higher in magnitude then the last.

reply to post by whoshotJR


Brillant comments like that one get you stars too!

A very excellent point!

reply to post by Greenize




That boy's been crying wolf for some 640,000 years! A few more won't get that wolf to budge from it's slumber.

And to WSJR:

Even if there was a 6 or 7 mag quake in the midst of these, until some other things start indicating "eruption imminent" I refuse to get on that train again. I rode it once, and that was enough. These guys know what they're doing, and at some point you gotta trust someone to give you the right information. Worry only if the YVO ups the alert level. And currently, it's a harmless green. IE: no worries.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Of course you have a valid point too. This has happened many many times....
There are many pros and specialists working and watching this thing at all times I am sure...you have to wonder though... with the potential for causing mass panic would they be allowed to tell the world that it was getting ready to pop...

Originally posted by Greenize
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

Of course you have a valid point too. This has happened many many times....
There are many pros and specialists working and watching this thing at all times I am sure...you have to wonder though... with the potential for causing mass panic would they be allowed to tell the world that it was getting ready to pop...

Exactly! Star for you.

That made for TV movie called super volcano is probably more real to life then we will ever know. We could have every scientist thinking its about to pop and they would still put out a statement its all gonna be fine, its just a normal cycle.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I'm not saying we should all freak out but its good to be educated and prepared. And If i did see a 6.0 in that area I would probably not remain very calm at the OP said he would. I wouldn't throw my hands in the air and saw we are all gonna die but my awareness level would be at an orange. If you are that calm then I think you went too far to the other side now

[edit on 19-1-2010 by whoshotJR]

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Is the fact that the ground has stopped rising a good thing or a bad thing?

Would this not lead to a build up of more pressure underneath?

reply to post by grantbeed


Its neither from what I remember. If the quakes were showing that magma was moving you would then look for where it was going though. If its just building up you would see the ground raise a bit.... or not. You may see water temps go up in the lake or even a die off of foliage in an area.

Like the OP says, don't worry too much. Just keep an eye on it and go through the yellowstone thread, you can learn a ton.

270 quakes in the past 2 days.Something is stirring at Yellowstone. Hopefully just another swarm and not indicative of an impending eruption. Game Over if that happens.

I agree hon. Something is going to kill us alright, but its not

going to be Yellowstone.

Originally posted by dgtempe
I agree hon. Something is going to kill us alright, but its not

going to be Yellowstone.

Hiya dg, hope you are doing well and had pleasant holidays.

The YVO has just issued an update, and according to them there is still no cause for alarm:

YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO OBSERVATORY INFORMATION STATEMENT
Tuesday, January 19, 2010 3:41 PM MST (Tuesday, January 19, 2010 2241 UTC)

Yellowstone Volcano
44°25'48" N 110°40'12" W, Summit Elevation 9203 ft (2805 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Current Aviation Color Code: GREEN

Earthquake swarm on the northwest edge of Yellowstone Caldera continues.

PRESS RELEASE FROM YVO PARTNER UNIVERSITY OF UTAH SEISMOGRAPH STATIONS

Released: January 19, 2010 03:00 PM MST

The University of Utah Seismograph Stations reports an update of information on an ongoing earthquake swarm in Yellowstone National Park that began January 17, 2010 (1:00 PM MST). The swarm is located about 10 miles northwest of Old Faithful, WY and 9 miles southeast of West Yellowstone, MT. The largest earthquake in the swarm as of 3 PM, January 19, 2010, was a magnitude 3.7 event that occurred at 2:31 PM, MST, January 19, 2010. and there have been 469 located earthquakes in the swarm of magnitudes 0.5 to 3.7. This includes 5 events of magnitude larger than 3, with 34 events of magnitude 2 to 3, and 430 events of magnitude less than 2. There have been multiple personal reports of ground shaking from observations inside Yellowstone National Park and in neighboring communities in Montana and Idaho for some of the larger events. Earthquake swarms of this nature are relatively common in Yellowstone National Park.

At this time the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory does not consider the swarm to be unusual and the earthquakes are likely related to tectonic fault sources. Also there is no indication of premonitory volcanic or hydrothermal activity, but ongoing analyses will evaluate these different sources.

Information on the earthquake can be viewed at the University of Utah Seismograph Stations: www.seis.utah.edu...

Seismograph recordings from stations of the Yellowstone seismograph station can be viewed online at: quake.utah.edu...

Anyone who has felt earthquakes in the swarm are encouraged to fill out a form on the USGS Community Felt reports web site: earthquake.usgs.gov...

This press release was prepared by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory partners of the U.S. Geol. Survey, the University of Utah, and the National Park Service: volcanoes.usgs.gov...

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

Note that the alert level is still a harmless green. So no real worries, but the swarm continues as I type this and watch them come in on GEE.

The yellowstone thread has more paragraphs than the bible, its too long, wonders too far from facts, and is asically one group of people trying to hog the information, i for one welcome new yellowstone threads, the main one is years old, and i want recent information not an archive to get lost in.

reply to post by la2


I sent a U2U to the original creator the other day and asked him to make a new one since he started the first. I figure if somebody made one its a billion stars and flags if they are into that.

It just needs updated links at the start of it and some of the highlights from the old thread. Call it- whats going on at yellowstone 2010 and your done.

Originally posted by whoshotJR
reply to post by la2

 

I sent a U2U to the original creator the other day and asked him to make a new one since he started the first. I figure if somebody made one its a billion stars and flags if they are into that.

It just needs updated links at the start of it and some of the highlights from the old thread. Call it- whats going on at yellowstone 2010 and your done. [/quote

SOOOO.......it was you who woke me up this early.

My curiosity started the big thread not intellect as some of my posts reflected.

Followed the whole thing and learned aton thanks to the brilliance of the main posters and the seekers like myself.

AS far as the yawn part TA....where I live winter is one big yawn and a pain in the ass.

Thanks YS for helping us shutins get thru the winter and look forward to seeing you next year.

peace HG

reply to post by la2


Guys,
Just follow the latest few pages. It's that easy.
You don't have to read that thread from its start.

Personally the thing i would look out for more is whether or not the uplifted caldera will sink again. If it dosent then that would mean its pressurizing and thats something to watch out for imo.

The number of 3s has increased over the last 48 hours.

www.seis.utah.edu...

hi all.

the discovery channel once made a "made for tv" short film about the yellowstone erupting.

good old youtube.

you can watch it here, the end of the world!!


www.youtube.com...

freestone

For those that have not seen this great documentary on Yellowstone, its history, and gives an overall sense of what is going on there, I highly recommend watching this. It was done in 2009 from the History Channel, and features Smith, Lowenstern, Lisa Morgan, who discovered the "bulge" under Yellowstone Lake, and more.

So when will Yellowstone erupt again? It seems from this series that will occur whenever the geology/land mass of the North American Plate, which is slowly creeping its way over the fixed hotspot, reaches a shallow or weak point in the crust that is not strong enough to contain the huge forces of the magma chamber. Excellent series here!

Part 1 of 5


Part 2 of 5


Part 3 of 5


Part 4 of 5


Part 5 of 5


And that's why this is so hard to predict for even the best scientists. To know exactly when it would erupt, they would have to know exactly the total stress level created by the magma plume, and also know the max stress supported by the incoming land mass above, as it moves over the hotspot. Those are figures which so far have been unobtainable to any reliable degree. And given that the plume is in itself constantly changing in size and pressure, it becomes an impossible task to predict the fateful moment when at any given point in the plate, it won't be enough to contain the pressure and boom.

This recent swarm has all the signs of rock fracturing, and none from direct magma movement, according to the YVO scientists. And with a 3.6 quake occurring in south Teton in the middle of this swarm, distant, but yet related, from this video series you can easier understand the relationship and why this might have occurred. The Plate is moving over the hotspot, creating more stress in some places, and releasing more stress in others. Faults are continually being created, retired, discovered, and mapped as this process continues on, and the moving land above reacts in unpredictable ways to the immense pressures from below.

There will be many more swarms, quakes, hydrothermal explosions, mud pots, changing water levels, ground uplift and subsidence, and more as time goes on. But chances are that if the land is holding today, it will likely hold tomorrow. As a land weakspot approaches the hotspot, signs of this will be ever more evident- and most likely first- from hydrothermal explosion(s) rather than any magmatic eruption. And these changes are likely going to happen over immense periods of time, rather than days, weeks or years. So yes, you have enough time to make another bag of popcorn and brew another pot of coffee.