Originally posted by plumranch
no, I'm just an entrepreneur exporting, placing orders to outsourced factories. And because I kinda know and understand Westerners, so I can help
them to minimize the quality issues in Chinese factories, who tend to have a hard time to understand what the standards are outside China.
anyhow, as for the economic bubble we faced in the 90s for Japan, which they still did not really come out of, well, hard to say, I personally do not
think Chinese "bubble" will burst so easily as in Japan:
1) Unlike in Japan or the rest of the world, you will be still surprised how much areas and how huge the portion of the population of China are not
really enjoying the so-called economic success for the past 30 years. I mean there are still hundreds of millions of Chinese and millions of squares
areas practically undeveloped. The moment an area is fully developed the government put their attention towards the lesser developed areas and that
part will offset the issues and even decline in certain developed areas. This will have to take on for at least another 3 decades before the whole of
China is really developed. Currently the policies are aiming to develop the internal consumer market too in these developed areas.
2) Another big reason is that the Chinese government rules our country with strong hands and can take actions right away. How Beijing reacted to the
Asian Financial Crisis was ever famous, and more recently during the Financial Tsunami, I believe China was the only country really taking the proper
actions to stop a crisis from happening. I sincerely believed that China had a system like Japan or USA, we would have been way too late. Of course
many efforts were stopped and delayed at provincial levels, that's the downside of being too big, but you start to see that these officials who did
not catch up in time are slowly being replaced, with the Shenzhen mayor as one of the biggest example.
3) Inflated industries are the real estate and the stock market. Especially the stock market is one of the biggest casino in the world with too many
uneducated putting their whole life savings in banana stocks or believing that housing pricing has only one way to go. And when human beings are
always having a short memory, so these are the biggest concerns one can imagine. However, once again, if these two parts are to burst, so be it, after
all, and again quantity speak for itself this time, it will ONLY affect tens of millions "middle class", while there are in relatively lesser
developed areas another ten of millions of "middle class" popping up. Call it a lesson for the "victims" of these bubbles, after all it is not
like there is not a huge propoganda program going on warning people to be on alert and not play with stocks as it is only rising etc etc.
4) There is a tendency to move labour intensive industries towards the inner parts of China and "upgrade" the industries and manufacturing in the
coastal provinces, like the Pearl River delta area. These are done by implementing governmental policies such as minimum wages etc. For these labour
intensive factory owners it is a hard time now, literally forced to move. But again, eventually it is better for the longer term for the Chinese
economy. And unfortunately some sacrifices need to be made.
5) Unlike Japan, the Chinese government will just do whatever they believe is good for them and not for another country, see RMB.
no I do not see China attacking anyone in the upcoming 25 years, the Chinese people will go berserk, and too many corrupted officials will be affected
in a war, it is not like that China has such a huge private military industry sector as in the USA. I do see China confronting more often American
(and other) presence in areas where there are huge conflicts of benefits between China and USA (or someone else). It won't really lead to war, just
more tension, and hopefully nobody makes a real mistake....
[edit on 23-1-2010 by yiersan]