Middle East on fire

I have been following this thread and doing research myself
now i believe something is going to kick of soon.

i have also found this what is quite interesting...

US Beefs Up Defences In Persian Gulf

In his State of the Union address President Obama more
than hinted that his patience with Iran is clearly running out.
Sky News Washington analyst Jon-Christopher Bua

More news...

09:56 Israel transfers detained Lebanese shepherd into UNIFIL hands (Haaretz)

Finally...

Debka pro-war propaganda continues...
EXCLUSIVE: US intelligence finds 5,000 Hizballah trained to seize Galilee towns

Jones was not talking out of the top of his head, but on the strength of solid US intelligence gathered over months on detailed war plans Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas have drawn up to send five Hizballah brigades sweeping across the border to seize five sectors of Galilee, while also organizing a massive Israeli-Arab uprising against the Jewish state.

If this is true, which I think it may be, this could be big trouble... can you imagine 5.000 special forces in various cities bent on destruction? It would be hell. The only problem with this scenario..how the hell will those commandos go across the border without being shot by UNIFIL or the Israeli army?

Unless they plan a surprise attack, it won't happen.

Bolton doing more propaganda..

Iran may announce that it has become a Nuclear power in the revolution anniversary February 11th, ambassador John Bolton tells Fox News that it is now dead certain that Iran has become a nuclear power , the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadenijad said that he will make a big announcement in this coming 10th anniversary of the Islamic revolution in Iran in the coming February , observers think that Iran will announce to the world that it has now become a nuclear power , which will make the US and its Arab Gulf allied states and Israel in a delicate situation

Yeah Bolton, in the past, you've been at least 100X more wrong than you were right...so STFU.

And of course..
Iran will deliver telling blow to global powers on Feb. 11

The only thing they gonna do is announce 20% uranium enrichment and test some new missiles. Nothing else.

The US National Security Advisor made an interesting comment...Here

"When regimes are feeling pressure, as Iran is internally and will externally in the near future, it often lashes out through its surrogates, including, in Iran's case, Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza," Jones said.

Iran will feel pressure externally in the near future that will force them to order Hizbullah and Hamas to attack Israel? What does that means? Israeli attack? IMO, precisely that. Iran wouldn't attack Israel just like that for no reason, especially not only ``pressure``... because attacking Israel once more would means the end of Hizbullah forever, Israel would go ALL IN.

So I think this guy is hinting to an Israeli strike in the near future...

[edit on 1-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

If Jerusalem has any common sense or decency they will not do this as The US as well as the rest of their allies are stretched so thin that if they in fact do strike Iran, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon they will be left to fend for themselves plain and simple.

You just cannot keep on antagonizing someone and not expect some sort of retalitory strike. It's like for example, I start poking someone in the chest day after day, eventually the person whose chest I'm poking is going to get fed up with it and violently and brutally attack me to make it stop. Israel is the aggressor just itching for a fight and when they will not get their way yet again expect them to bomb themselves just to blame it on an Arab. It may have to get to the point where the world just says enough is enough and wipes Israel and Palestine off the map totally effectively ending the problem once and for all and for good.

Personally I'd rather not see it be taken that far but the options are slowly running out.

[edit on 2-2-2010 by TheImmaculateD1]

I doubt the west will turn against Israel...as long as our governments in the west are as corrupt as they are now...

Anyway, more news..

9:45am NNA: Israeli warplanes overflew Nabatiyeh and Iqlim al-Tuffah at 9:00 am and carried out mock raids over Marjayoun and Khiam.

Having some fun while breaching once again UN resolution 1701?

Barak: Israel Won't Limit Itself to Hizbullah Targets when Attacked

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has reiterated that the Jewish state would hold the Lebanese government responsible for any eruption of violence on the border.
Speaking to the Israeli army's top officers, Barak said: "The government of Lebanon is responsible for everything Hizbullah does. The organization has an internal Lebanese identity, in addition to its well-known affiliation to Syria and Iran."

"If Israel is attacked, we will not limit ourselves only to Hizbullah targets," the minister stressed.

In the absence of a peace deal with Syria, Israel could find itself at war with its neighbor to the north, Barak warned.

"In the absence of a deal with Syria we could reach an armed conflict that could develop into a full-fledged war," he said. "As is in the Middle East, immediately after the war we will sit down and negotiate exactly what we have been talking about for the past 15 years."

Commenting on the Iranian nuclear threat, Barak told the officers: "I repeat: All options are on the table and we mean it."

Now if Hezbollah starts something, Syria and the Lebanese army may as well go all in since they will be destroyed anyway.

[edit on 2-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

Several news stories... and important ones.

Report: N. Korea resumes military aid to Syria

Japanese newspaper reports that Pyongyang helping Damascus manufacture maraging steel, which is used in missile skins, ballistic warheads, and gas centrifuges. Iran denies connection to North Korean weapons plane stopped in Thailand last month

Israeli reasons for going to war with Syria/Hezbollah : +1

Iran said on Tuesday that it was ready to send its uranium abroad for further enrichment as requested by the U.N.
Now this is talk, let's see if he acts on it...

Netanyahu Accuses Lebanese Government of Allowing Hizbullah to Develop Military Capabilities

"These weapons are without doubt aimed at Israeli civilians," said Netanyahu. "It is the responsibility of the Lebanese government to prevent attacks against Israel and its citizens."

AKA Hezbollah = Lebanese government...

I'm sure in their mind, this alone would be reason for attack on Lebanon. Lebanon is like a ``terrorist country``...

Despite US threats, China urges talks on Iran
Yep, China is blocking new sanctions.

And I just remembered that from reading everything about a possible Iran war in 2006... China is very important.

The national defense/energy policy of China is that if any of it's energy sources are destroyed/captured by anyone, that it cuts the flow of energy to China, that it will be taken as a declaration of war.

Now if the US were to bomb Iran/invade them... wouldn't that be considered as an act of war? Or will the US do deal beforehand? Deals don't seem likely around now because of all that tension about Iran and Taiwan.... so we're not likely to see any attack on Iran by the US... by Israel we may however.

Anyway, technically, it's possible that it could turn into a standoff between China and the US... but in all likelyness, no.

UPDATE : About an hour ago, Israel bombed gaza.

Israel launches air strikes in Gaza: Hamas
Let's hope it doesn't begin...

[edit on 2-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

Hard to get a reading on what's actually happening right now. Internet reporting just retransmits the messages various regimes want to send to give an impression they're in control. We only see tips of the iceberg with small events reported.

Like North Korea cutting some deal with Syria. Closer to hard realities starvation is rampant in NK and the Chinese are afraid they'll be overrun at their borders with a good share of the 20+ million hungry people.

ca.news.yahoo.com...

A worldwide conflict would mean ruin for so many countries still reeling from economic collapses and impending food shortages.

No one wants to think about a conventional war with Iran. The mountainous terrain is inhospitable for tank invasion for one thing.

But Israel is being provoked and has to deter the proxy war Iran is pushing on their Gaza, Lebanese, Syria borders. The move into Gaza today is a message.

The Saudis who dictate foreign policy in the region for the majority Sunnis, after confronting Iran in Yemen may have decided it's time for a showdown with their upstart Iranian rivals who have internal stability issues.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is o course just a convenient showpiece. Iran wants to destroy Israel in it's path to the Saudi palaces and oil fields. The Saudis expect Israel to do their counter heavy lifting.

Syria may where the confrontation explodes. Damascus is Iran's client state and a safe house for Islamic radical activities. Putting down Syria would be a clear indication for Iran and the terrorist network that the US, Britain, Europe, Israel are fed up with years of unfruitful diplomacy and defensiveness.

Russia will capitalize on the chaos and instability to expand it's influence and profit from inevitable catapulting of oil prices. But they never really wanted a nuclear capable Iran on their doorstep and will step aside if Iran takes a beating.

China has no direct concern but will watch to see what develops and how they can use it to their advantage.

Iran is already making conciliatory gestures with their uranium enrichment announement, which may be a signal they realize they've pushed too far with their gamesmanship.

I don't think all this will not go out of control - no one really is looking for a major war. But some kind of power shift is looming.

Something's got to give. Weak and isolated Syria and Lebanon probably have the most to worry about.

12:10pm NNA: Israeli fighter jets overflew Jezzine and Iqlim al-Tuffah at 11:10 am. Warplanes also overflew Nabatiyeh, Hasbaya and Marjayoun at noon, carrying out mock raids.

Another violation by Israel... ain't that nice...

Iran test launches satellite rocket

This shows progress towards an ICBM capability...

11:55 Berlusconi: West cannot let Iran, open anti-Semites, have nuclear power (Haaretz)

Notice that he says POWER and not weapons... freudian slip?

Big news...

This is really rare for Syria to speak that way...

Syria to Israel: Next war will come to your cities

Syria on Wednesday issued a strongly-worded warning to Israel that a future war between the two countries would be a "comprehensive" clash that would "come to your cities," CBS News reported. [...]"No doubt, if we assume that this war would erupt - and we should not exclude this possibility from an entity established on expansion - I would say it is going to be a comprehensive war, whether it starts in the south of Lebanon or from Syria," Moallem said.

Is this confirmation that Syria will participate to the next war?

17:56 Israel Min. Yaalon: U.S. incapable of containing Iran nuclear ambitions (Army Radio)

Uh oh...that means Israel must take care of it...

Europe has pointed out Iran's latest announcement on allowing external uranium treatments is - guess what - another stall.

What Iran may not have factored in is that after all the endless rhetoric, posturing, provocations, threats, lame excuses - even the patient Europeans and Chinese have had enough.

The sentiment may be turning to "Can we please put them out of their misery so we don't have to hear any more of this."

Iran plays a game and thinks it's winning. They miscalculate how effective they are with their strategy. Syria and Lebanon have been dragged in. The US, the Saudis, Israel, now maybe Europe has been pushed to their limits.

Iran will come out with another story. It may not wash.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Big news...

This is really rare for Syria to speak that way...

Syria to Israel: Next war will come to your cities

I'm glad to see this link.

I had a convo with a poster in a similiar thread , who was all for "lets get this war rolling"

Then I asked him if he would be so gung ho , if the battle ground was Texas
or Idaho.

He was less enthusiastic .

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Big news...

This is really rare for Syria to speak that way...

Syria to Israel: Next war will come to your cities

Syria on Wednesday issued a strongly-worded warning to Israel that a future war between the two countries would be a "comprehensive" clash that would "come to your cities," CBS News reported. [...]"No doubt, if we assume that this war would erupt - and we should not exclude this possibility from an entity established on expansion - I would say it is going to be a comprehensive war, whether it starts in the south of Lebanon or from Syria," Moallem said.

Is this confirmation that Syria will participate to the next war?

17:56 Israel Min. Yaalon: U.S. incapable of containing Iran nuclear ambitions (Army Radio)

Uh oh...that means Israel must take care of it...

Lol when I checked the article I laughed, the actual headline of the article is

Assad: Israel leading the Middle East to war

and This is the full article:

Syrian President Bashar Assad said on Wednesday that Israel is not serious about its intentions to make peace with Damascus as evidenced by "its conduct which is leading the region to war."

The Syrian leader made those statements during a meeting with Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos in Damascus on Wednesday.

According to a report on Syrian state television, Moratinos told Assad that the urgent diplomatic issues of the Middle East will be at the top of the European Union's agenda. Spain assumed the rotating presidency of the EU.

Earlier on Wednesday, Assad's foreign minister issued a strongly-worded warning to Israel that a future war between the two countries would be a "comprehensive" clash that would "come to your cities," CBS News reported.

...and you forgot to include this lil' piece of info which alters the essence of the article as the Syrian replied to Ehud Barak's remark of an all out war

Just days after Defense Minister Ehud Barak cautioned that the stalled peace process with Syria is liable to deteriorate into all-out war, Foreign Minister Walid Moallem lashed out at Jerusalem.

"Israel is indeed planting the seeds of war in the region, I would tell them stop playing the role of thugs in the Middle East," Moallem told reporters Tuesday in Damascus.

"One day you threaten Gaza, next day you threaten Lebanon, later Iran and now Syria," Moallem told a joint news conference with Moratinos.

"Don't test, you Israelis, the determination of Syria. You know that war this time would move to your cities. Come to your senses and choose the road of peace. This path is clear," Moallem warned.

"No doubt, if we assume that this war would erupt - and we should not exclude this possibility from an entity established on expansion - I would say it is going to be a comprehensive war, whether it starts in the south of Lebanon or from Syria," Moallem said.

According to CBS News, Moratinos said during the news conference that he had left Israel with the impression that the country was in no mood for conflict.

"I came in from Israel after meetings with most senior officials there, and I would tell you that I heard no drums of war, rather I felt a desire for peace," the Spanish foreign minister said.

[edit on 3-2-2010 by December_Rain]

Originally posted by December_Rain

Syrian President Bashar Assad said on Wednesday that Israel is not serious about its intentions to make peace with Damascus as evidenced by "its conduct which is leading the region to war."

Of course outside of press release Lala land, on planet Earth, no one is particularly concerned about the pronouncements of Mr Bashar Assad. He was an extremely tenuous control of a poor Middle East regime that survives by being a proxy client state of oil-rich Iran.

About the last thing in the world he wants is yet another futile war between his country and Israel. This time the gloves will come off. A good chance he and the terrorist organization leaders hiding away in Damascus safe houses will have their silly heads blown off.

No one will really care much. Good riddance. Less problems for everyone.

He'll continue to talk big, act threatening, as Iran pays him to do. Let's see how he responds when Iran decides they don't really need a weakling like him running Syria any more.


[edit on 3-2-2010 by mmiichael]

reply to post by December_Rain


Sorry but they changed the title of the article. I quoted the title...

And if you read my post earlier, I posted that Barak said that... and I didn't try to imply that Syria was threatening war...I assume people read the articles... but yeah as you pointed out, it looks like I did that...sorry about that.

Yeah Iran might stage a coup against Syria using Hezbollah if Syria don't want war... or Syria and Hezbollah could say to Iran to go screw themselves too... Hezbollah might prefer staying in power in Lebanon and Assad may prefer to stay in power too... instead of being blown to bits for Iran...

There's factions pro-Iran and anti-Iran in both Hezbollah and the Syrian government... we'll see who won when Iran is finally overthrown/bombed.

Israel should stop making threats and maybe the pro-status quo would win over the pro-war faction...

20:06 Netanyahu: Israel hopes peace talks will resume within weeks (Haaretz)

Good...

20:24 U.S. says not in talks with Iran over prisoner swap (Reuters)

Not good...

Israeli military: Rocket fired from Gaza Strip

A rocket fired from the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip on Wednesday landed in Israel without causing any casualties or damage, according to the Israeli military.

EU and China are tired of Iran? Not so much...

EU Foreign Policy chief Catherine Ashton has called for prudence on further sanctions against Iran over the country's nuclear program.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu says Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi on Wednesday underlined the 'urgent' need for the continuation of talks over the Iranian nuclear issue.

Russian Navy to upgrade Tartus naval base by 2011

MOSCOW, Jan. 13 (Xinhua) -- Russia will finish the fundamental renovation at its naval logistics base in the Syrian port of Tartus by 2011, said the Navy's General Staff on Wednesday.

Having been upgrading the Tartus port for several years, the Navy's General Staff said in a statement that "the main purpose is to develop logistics...to upgrade the existing coastal infrastructures and create new ones that will provide convenient moorage and stable supply for Russian ships pulling into Tartus with fuel, water, food and other supplies."

"The bulk of the works is to be completed in 2011," said the statement.

The Navy's General Staff also said that its fleet already had a functioning logistics facility at Tartus, whose condition and capabilities fell short of requirements.

Russia is in Syria... if Israel kills one russian...

[edit on 3-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

www.debka.com...

Not quite sure how trusty the link is...

EXCLUSIVE: US intelligence finds 5,000 Hizballah training to seize Galilee towns

Jones was not talking out of the top of his head, but on the strength of solid US intelligence gathered over months on detailed war plans Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas have drawn up to send five Hizballah brigades sweeping across the border to seize five sectors of Galilee, while also organizing a massive Israeli-Arab uprising against the Jewish state.
Hamas would open a second front in the south and in the east. Syria is expected to step in at some stage.
This plan with attached special map was first published exclusively by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 430 on Jan. 22, 2010.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards instructors at especially established training facilities near Tehran are already well advanced in training a cadre of 5,000 Hizballah fighters in special operations and urban combat tactics to standards equivalent to those current in similar US and Israeli military forces.

At the outset of the course, the group was split up into five battalions, each given a specific northern Israeli sector for capture with details of its topography and population for close study.

Yeah Mr.Lizard, I posted this earlier... and I said that it was unlikely to succeed unless they did a surprise attack...

More news...

Debka warmongering...

Egyptian sources: Israel prepares to strike Iran from Gulf and N. Iraq

They report that the Israeli Navy together with the US Fifth Fleet have for some weeks been charting Persian Gulf waters and Iranian shorelines in preparation for attacks by Israeli naval and special operations forces.
IDF intelligence and special forces officers, they also say, have been marking out routes for their air and ground forces to drive into Iran and hit its nuclear installations.

If true, the timing would fit since no more sanctions are possible at this time and not in the near future. Iran is also supposed to announce something big on february 11, probably just uranium enrichment at 20%... and a few tests of missiles.

Ya'alon says Iran can still be stopped

Strategic affairs minister tells Herzliya Conference, 'It must be made clear to the extremist regime in Iran that ignoring the international community's demands will end in bitter tears'

Aka stop your BS or we're bombing you.

We'll see what happens in the next two months... if it have to start, imo it will start between february 10 and april 1... then another window opens around mid-june...

[edit on 3-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

50% of what Debka tells you about Israel is straight from the horse's mouth. The other half is propaganda they know the opposite side is reading.

Most of public pronouncements we're getting from all sides of the equation are public consumption deflections from the real issues.

The Saudis who have been calling ll the shots in the Middle East and dictating US foreign policy there are getting stiff competition from upstart Iran, now being run by the Revolutionary Guard and Mr A as the front man. A serious internal power struggle in Iran with the military no longer siding with the RG.

Iran may e feeling giddy because the Revolutionary Guard are on good terms with their opposite number in Pakistan, the ISI. This means by inference they have access to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and feel they could go one on one with Israel or the US if things ever escalated to a nuclear confrontation.

The concern for everyone, Russians, Europe, surrounding Middle East countries is how far Iran is willing to go in their Islamic Revolution zeal to control the Sunni oil regimes, Saudi Arabia, UAE, et al. Israel is the appetizer which they have thought will bring the fence sitters on line with them.

But it's not a viable strategy as was discovered when Israel went into Gaza a year ago. No one really wanted to assist Hamas knowing they were acting under Iranian prompting.

Complicated dynamics in all this.


M

reply to post by mmiichael


Interesting analysis, thanks.

Finally one who understands the situation :
Petraeus says strike on Iran could spark nationalism

War is cancelled, mother nature hates war :
After several days of fair weather, a storm is expected to sweep across Israel on Wednesday, with heavy precipitation expected to hit central and northern Israel as soon as the early afternoon.


Could also stop Israel from adequate re-supplying to the Golan front if war were to start...might tempt Hezbollah and Syria..

[edit on 3-2-2010 by Vitchilo]

Originally posted by Vitchilo
reply to post by mmiichael

 

Interesting analysis, thanks.

A problem for everyone now is one can't talk about Iran as if there's a political solidarity and singular leader.

The Ayatollahs may be wealthy, influential and powerful - but they no longer run the show. Mr A may formally have to defer to them but he sides with the ordinary people who have been the victims of a clerical revolution that turned into a dictatorship with competing factions.

The Rev Guard and the Ayatollahs systematically robbed and raped the people taking away the oil money and their cultural heritage. The county people believe they are being protected from potential invasion by the US or British. The small professional and intellectual class in North Tehran have a clearer picture of how opportunism is running rampant in the newly created wealth class of Mullahs and military warlords.

Gross mismanagement has lead to old money fleeing the country and outside investment drying up. The Russians sell them secondhand junk equipment at exorbitant prices, money is thrown at proxies like Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas - while people still go hungry in the countryside. The nuclear thing has brought sanctions and distress while delivering nothing except leverage for the politicians.

The economy is quietly approaching collapse. But preparations for war are being made.

A true mess with no easy solution.

More news...

Lieberman warns Assad will lose power if Syria goes to war

No you think?

01:02 Australia blocks Iran shipments suspected to be destined for weapons use (Reuters)
08:11 Australia blocks shipments to Iran over fear they were meant for nuclear program (AP)

Over fear... so it's based on nothing concrete? What a joke.

05:42 U.S.: North Korea to remain off list of state terror sponsors (DPA)

Yeah North Korea sure is lovely but Iran is bad bad bad.

04:02 U.S. Defense Secretary: U.S. looking at full range of options on Iran (Haaretz)

Full range of options include
- More sanctions (won't happen because of China)
- Military Strike
- Funding of resistant group (been happening since 2005)
- Blocus (act of war)
- Diplomacy

More news...

Maybe that's why the price of an AK-47 is so high in Lebanon...

Assad: Civil War in Lebanon Could Start in Days unless They Change the Whole System

Syrian President Bashar Assad said that "the civil war in Lebanon could start in days," adding that "one cannot feel assured about anything in Lebanon unless they change the whole system."

Trying to find a pretext to get power back in Lebanon?

19:59 White House: Nuclear Iran is not in China`s interest (Reuters)

Yeah except Iran, their source of oil, wouldn't be always on the verge of being invaded or bombed by some warmongering dumbass. Iranian nuclear bomb = stability.

20:59 Iranian envoy in Moscow says Russia assures it will deliver long-range missiles (Reuters)

Wut? Is he talking about S-300 or long range missiles, as in ICBMs?

22:25 Hezbollah chief: There has been a development in Syria-Israel affairs (Army Radio)

Which development? War talking?