The economy is in much worse shape than we think

The msm will have us believe things are turning around and by next year the economy will be recovering. What I see however is alarming.

Since January 1st, 2 of my local lunch spots (mom and pop) have closed for business. I went to open the door of these establishments and a sign was posted at the door stating they have closed for good.
A few other business in town have moved their operations to smaller spots (probably due to rent).
I find this very disturbing, These types of businesses help the local community and local economy. If this is a trend then 2010 will be a very bad year financially.

Has anyone else noticed small businesses closing in their communities?

reply to post by crw2006


It is a continuation of what happened in the past few years.

It won't be worst but it's the aftermath.

It's like the bottom half of a circle. 2009 reached the very bottom and we are barely scraping back up the other side.

It is MUCH worse.

Look at this.

www.usdebtclock.org...

12 Trillion dollars in debt. That is a scary thing to see.

And, now we see gas prices on the rise, again. Which, I believe, was the impetus for the current recession.

The economy slowed, when people quit buying "stuff", because all of their disposable income was being pumped into the tanks of their cars. To get the economy on the road to recovery, people need to resume buying "stuff", which isn't going to happen if gas prices skyrocket, again.

6 lines = $0.02

Edit to add: I believe you are corresct in looking at your local situation, to gain a true sense of how bad things are.



[edit on 17-1-2010 by WTFover]

Predictions of doom are very often self fulfilling prophecies. If you personally think doom is here, very often, your preceptions will be tuned to negative aspects and presumed it as such.

Only perceptions, but ultimately it will inhibit your performance and confidence to react with rationality and courage.

The only constant in life is change. What you see around you is only a rationalization of change. The closure of the mom and pop shop is not an ending, but a beginning to keep up with changes. They need to rationalize their operations, and will take on jobs instead or retire if they have savings. It does not affect you.

The next better will come along if the marketing depts handles it right and be profitable, perhaps selling better products. If not, the landlords will have to rationalize their rents to market forces, or they will be bankrupt. But as it is a physical stock, someone else will buy it, and the game goes on.

Money must circulate, and you must continue to contribute to such circulation by having a job, rationalize your spending and saving to a have a balance, otherwise if money is hoarded up, it will eventually be drawn down to nothing to survive and worst, no one else is getting in the meantime to grow and expand. This will be the real doom we MUST avoid.

There is a lot of money in the world. It doesnt disappear. It just went into hiding and if it continues to do so, its adious world as we all starve to death and the rich robbed and murdered, reverting mankind back to the jungles and its laws.

But it is not happening, as govts around the world are attempting to jump start economies by throwing money into the markets to help the masses regain their confidences. We can do without material goods, but we cannot go without water and food and the little luxuries we al enjoy from time to time. So people will spend, and it will be this miniscule start that will save our world. You play a part in it too.

Cheers!

This economic debacle has been coming on for years...large corporations (you know, those things that liberals despise) have greatly reduced their numbers...many corporations have shipped jobs overseas where people are just as intelligent as those in the West and they don't have regulations and taxes up the wazooo...a lot of other people have lost their jobs to greatly improved technology (I have a relative who's background is a graphic artist - there are very, very few print shops today as compared to twenty years ago).

Yes, it's a very scary situation which will probably only get worse for the U.S. I'm not sure about the EU but the U.S is going to have major problems for years to come despite the MSM trying to paint a rosy scenario on behalf of the Obama administration.

Good luck to us...we'll need it!

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101

The only constant in life is change. What you see around you is only a rationalization of change. The closure of the mom and pop shop is not an ending, but a beginning to keep up with changes. They need to rationalize their operations, and will take on jobs instead or retire if they have savings. It does not affect you.

I disagree. I don't know where you live, but regardless, take a look at the number of commercial properties with 'For Sale' signs. You must, also, consider the number of people those Mom and Pops employ and their families. The closing of one affects more people than just the mom and pop. With a wife in real estate, I can tell you commercial properties are not turning, in our area.

Americans are intelligent people, due to its massive education social spending. Many jobs had been lost to other countries, but that is an issue the political administrators will have to address seriously with its corporations, failing which, it is the job of the politicians to protect industries, workers and mineral resources of US in face of economic threat that affects the livelihood of americans.

Technology had increased the economic wealth of nations in the past, so too will technology increase wealth today and the future. Americans are the leaders of technologies and marketing, are a no brainer competition when pitted against the chinese, indians or africans, as mentioned, not out of ethnic discrimination but the high level of quality education offered to every american child.

It just need to have its confidence back, get the garages and kitchen tables fired up again, and new industries growing, but this time to be smarter to ensure its people and tech are protected first before giving out charity. More critically, the political adminstrators had better make a level playing field when dealing with competting countries, which can help the people better than greedy Corporation slave drivers.

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101
Predictions of doom are very often self fulfilling prophecies. If you personally think doom is here, very often, your preceptions will be tuned to negative aspects and presumed it as such.

Yeah I guess if we wish everything to be puppy dogs and lollipops then they will be? The power of positive thinking?

The US economy is on a crash course. People need to wake up and realize that. It's not GLOOM AND DOOM........it's the G'DAMN truth!

the only thing that has been created is an illusion of recovery. Yeah if i needed people to buy things i could throw money at them and as long as they have that thrown money they will buy, until that money is gone then we go back to square one. prices will go back, gas will go back, stocks will drop. people will be scared even more. we have started a cycle that will not end. EVER. the only question is when will the presses stop making this money that doesn't even exist. Whats really retarded is that the mass media brings these "statements" from "top economists" saying simply. "the economy is getting better" well no #. but for how long. people eat that up and word of mouth spreads before you know it everyone is brainwashed that hey were doing good now. only half as many jobs lost. haha yeah only because were running out of jobs to lose. its only gonna get worse. oh and when the stores i go to for my cheaper services close because of the recession. i think it does affect me. listen labor is slipping, land is slipping, entrepreneurship is still functioning but no where near where it needs to be no one has the money to just invent # unless their already rich, and capitol is a joke now. our resources are done take out all the complicated economic stuff and just look around. that's the problem people bury their heads in numbers to deep they don't see what happens around them. we could fix this now but hell that's all politics and lazy soft America. its not over at all.

Sorry for my rant.

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101
It just need to have its confidence back, get the garages and kitchen tables fired up again, and new industries growing, but this time to be smarter to ensure its people and tech are protected first before giving out charity. More critically, the political adminstrators had better make a level playing field when dealing with competting countries, which can help the people better than greedy Corporation slave drivers.

Yes but do you think that our current system will ever go back to a level playing field. once your a slave driver. you'll never go back, big CEOs are making money and they aren't going to stop. do you think the gov will ever sell back the close to monopolies they have bought from us? I'm all for what you say but do you think that the greed will disappear? What would it take?

reply to post by Zosynspiracy


I dont know much about 'positive thinking' or what it entails, but I do know what is called survival. We still need food and water and it aint gonna drop from the sky, even in the best of times.

The world may fall around us, but are we to just give up and let ourselves be crushed without a fight? It's not even doom, at least not yet as there are still economic activities around.

Rather than to talk generalisations, a realistic aspect would be to remain in that job as long as possible, or if retrenched or out of job, to quickly look for another one, no matter how mean. Once the market stabilizes, which it will as mankind still have needs to be meet, we all can look for better opportunities.

Today's for sale sign will be tomorrow's occupied premises. Which wealthy person will give up on a bargain? More so properties which are fixed assests with guaranteed returns over time, as long as it is a prime spot?

Now is not the time to roll over and think dead, unless you think it is. It's your life to live.

I think issue will come to a head when we all have to start repaying these bailouts.. Reality is that the establishment is still in bailout mode..

Although we maybe nearing the end of that phase, we are close to the next phase, which is repaying the money the establishment has given out/borrowed/printed.

That liability falls on all of us in the middle and at the bottom, tho I suspect the hardest hit will be the local stores and family businesses..

And the ways our government will increase taxes will be upfront and sneaky back door taxes like the new "Victims Levy" on car parking offences (here in England) Which is simply another way of increasing the revenue by 25%.

You and I both know the establishment will strike as best they can at all the revenue streams available to them to claw as much cash out of our pockets as they can..

That is the bit that I feel will really hurt our economies, damage any possible recovery and put a lot of good people out of work.

I worry how people are going to respond to that part.. unpopular taxes have been a cause of a gread deal of public angst over the centuries and I am not going to kid myself it will be sweetness and roses this time.

reply to post by thoughtsfull


No one, no one loves taxes. That's a reality.

But unfortunately, do know where the taxes are going to. Social spending in a civilised country is only natural if we are to maintain a standard of civilised living.

Who's gonna subsidize for the cop's salary to feed his family and keep us all safe? Who's gonna subsidize for the less priviledged child's education? Who's gonna subsidize for the old folk's medical bills when he falls sick?

Bailout monies though painful and at times seem unfair, but those are not charity, but loans with interest to be repaid back as well as a foot into the Corporation's boardroom, to direct and control by the people's elected representative, an opportunity not to be missed to hamper corporate greed.

How the taxes should be expended is a question mark, but a question mark we have control over every 4 or 5 years depending on the country we live in by our sacred votes.

If we dont agree to taxes, then you and I best be prepared to find a jungle in the uninhabited Amazon jungles to live out the rest of our lives.



[edit on 17-1-2010 by SeekerofTruth101]

You are right about that my friend, is getting much, much worst, even my husbands company that is one of the top three biggest defense department budget recipients has cut money out of the employees checks one month before they are schedule to give the annual pay increases.

And all this happen without even telling the employees they were doing that.

So they can come around and keep the salaries the same and called a pay increase.

Unbelievable.

And now the president is coming out and making a big deal about making the big to fail pay some type of taxes while they reaped billions on unrestricted and interest rates free tax payer, so they can pass that on to us.

Deceiving.

4th quarter earnings will be announced throughout February.

The numbers are expected to be low but the good news is, the low numbers are EXPECTED.

The "X" factor is how low. Will the numbers be so low, it will cause a second economic tidal wave? If so, it shouldn't take long for us to see that effect in the form of commercial loan defaults.

If that happens, BIG banks will either fail or require another bail out. Also, you would see another round of layoffs. This second round of layoffs would increase the number of consumer credit defaults.

In respect to the unemployment numbers, keep in mind the federal statistics only include those receiving unemployment benefits. They do not include the unemployed who are not receiving benefits nor do they include the grossly under employed; people who grabbed any job they could either to keep at least some money flowing in or people who refuse to take a government handout in the form of an unemployment check.

US Unemployment Percentage

While that link shows just under 10% unemployed, if you include those not receiving benefits and those grossly under employed, the national number is probably in the twenty percentile.

The general national unemployment trend has been violently upward from early 2008 to current and it continues to trend upward at this time.

State wide, the biggest victims are California and Michigan. In California, it's grim with over 12% unemployed BY FEDERAL NUMBERS. So it's really worse. In Michigan, it's over 14%, but down from about 15.6% in July 2009.

The good news is the Dow is up about 4,000 points in about the last 18 months and despite a 100 point loss on Friday, that upward trend continues.

But the low 4th quarter earnings reports and the ramifications of those reports would likely have a negative impact of the DOW.

There are internet based rumors that claim California will be declared bankrupt before the spring which begins March 20th.

There is another internet rumor about President Obama wanting 1 million troops ready for action by January 30th for possible strife inside the US.

Rather then get into what the end result of those two actions taking place, let's wait the short time and see what happens. Again, internet rumors.

One thing is for sure, if the US Unemployment numbers don't begin to trend down very soon...............let's just see what happens.

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101
reply to post by thoughtsfull

 

How the taxes should be expended is a question mark, but a question mark we have control over every 4 or 5 years depending on the country we live in by our sacred votes.
[edit on 17-1-2010 by SeekerofTruth101]

As you stated it is all about the spending.
We in the US don't have a lack of tax revenues,
what we have is a lack of control on what it is spent on.

On changing it every 4-5 years, that is the concept,
however the problem is politicians lie and continue the same madness.
They push the two party system to keep us evenly divided.

You don't go to the neighbors house and try to
get it in order until your own needs are met at home.

I wonder how many Republicans would select backing a war over receiving tax reductions?

Or how many Democrats would select backing a war over expanding civil services?

I would guess Independents want no war and a little of both.

I say eliminate the wars and empire building,
create jobs that enhance our civil infrastructure,
and allow the US to thrive once again.

edit sp.

[edit on 17-1-2010 by Absum!]

I say we just give the bank a few hundred more billion. They've always been so helpfull and honost. I'm sure that will make the economy better!

reply to post by Genfinity


Star to you sir. I agree with all you said.
The problem the PTB are having is the public will lose more confidence if the truth be said.

So spin the bad news, massage the figures to sound better, and compare the "gains" to limited data sources.
Without the peoples confidence it will be game change time.

For example; they report “Job losses are slowing.”

“On the positive side, unemployment held steady at 10 percent.”
“The US only saw a 10,000 increase in lost jobs compared to last month.”
“Showing positive signs of recovery for the US job market.”

We still lost 700,000 jobs for the month of December.

Recovery!?! Positive signs?!
No matter how they spin it,
a recovery won’t happen until we get a report saying,
“There were gains and no job losses this month”

Our biggest problem is the jobs market.
All the future US problems are linked to the lack of earnings.

The OP is right things are going to get worse... instead of falling prices we're going to see rising prices... which is already apparent through gas and gold right now.

There were many causes for this depression, but the falling dollar and our debt is going to be what kills us sure the national debt is 12 trillion but 54 trillion is the real amount of debt the US carries. The Federal Reserve was a big contributer to this mess with the low interest rates making loans cheap and easy to get.

Anyone who claims we are in recovery mode is misguided... the markets on wall street are not in sync with the way it is on main street. 10% unemployment and rising... but the real number of unemployment is actually around 17% since they don't count "discouraged" workers.