4th quarter earnings will be announced throughout February.
The numbers are expected to be low but the good news is, the low numbers are EXPECTED.
The "X" factor is how low. Will the numbers be so low, it will cause a second economic tidal wave? If so, it shouldn't take long for us to see
that effect in the form of commercial loan defaults.
If that happens, BIG banks will either fail or require another bail out. Also, you would see another round of layoffs. This second round of layoffs
would increase the number of consumer credit defaults.
In respect to the unemployment numbers, keep in mind the federal statistics only include those receiving unemployment benefits. They do not include
the unemployed who are not receiving benefits nor do they include the grossly under employed; people who grabbed any job they could either to keep at
least some money flowing in or people who refuse to take a government handout in the form of an unemployment check.
US Unemployment
Percentage
While that link shows just under 10% unemployed, if you include those not receiving benefits and those grossly under employed, the national number is
probably in the twenty percentile.
The general national unemployment trend has been violently upward from early 2008 to current and it continues to trend upward at this time.
State wide, the biggest victims are California and Michigan. In California, it's grim with over 12% unemployed BY FEDERAL NUMBERS. So it's really
worse. In Michigan, it's over 14%, but down from about 15.6% in July 2009.
The good news is the Dow is up about 4,000 points in about the last 18 months and despite a 100 point loss on Friday, that upward trend continues.
But the low 4th quarter earnings reports and the ramifications of those reports would likely have a negative impact of the DOW.
There are internet based rumors that claim California will be declared bankrupt before the spring which begins March 20th.
There is another internet rumor about President Obama wanting 1 million troops ready for action by January 30th for possible strife inside the US.
Rather then get into what the end result of those two actions taking place, let's wait the short time and see what happens. Again, internet
rumors.
One thing is for sure, if the US Unemployment numbers don't begin to trend down very soon...............let's just see what happens.