Madeleine McCann 'Died In Holiday Apartment'

Originally posted by Silcone Synapse
This is the key to the dog aspect IMO-although what you say is true,(that it is hard to quantify the animal's senses),We have to look at the record of these dogs,and how many times they have led to a positive identification of other bodies.
That is how we should judge the dogs IMO.

There was mention in the reports of the dogs having a 200/200 sucess rate.

If thats true,I would take their opinion as accurate.

Dogs do not make things up,they tell us truths only IMO.

If you need to see if that is a true statement,try setting a "false trail" though the woods and get a dog to follow it,instead of following you.
A good dog will get you every time in my experience-they will see the fake trail,then double back.

The capability of dogs noses are pretty much incomprehensible to us mere humans.

All you points are well taken. I know dogs well and am constantly amazed by their acute senses.

But I think the abilities of dogs to separate bonafide evidence from faked or to confuse an animal has not been examined well enough to rule out erroneous assumptions based on their responses.

Dead human tissue smell may not always be from the corpse of a victim and animals can respond to other smells.

The odds of someone successfully faking a false lead are small but cannot be totally eliminated.

I know this goes down a rabbit hole of when can you trust any gathered evidence.

But the dog thing is different from human provided testimony. One would not like to base a murder conviction solely on the strength of it.

reply to post by EMPIRE


Information about the girls eye,and its potential meaning was described here by Iamnow:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Worth a read IMO.

reply to post by mmiichael

The odds of someone successfully faking a false lead are small but cannot be totally eliminated.
I know this goes down a rabbit hole of when can you trust any gathered evidence.
But the dog thing is different from human provided testimony.

One would not like to base a murder conviction solely on the strength of it.

Very true,Its a tough thing to judge,and you can't base the whole case on the dogs behaviour.
But they should not be ignored.

A lot of the points made against trusting the indications of a cadaver dog, for instance, are well made and quite accurate. There is easily accessible information on sniffer dogs their training, purposes, falibilities and court cases where their indications have been fought over, sometimes ruled admissible and sometimes not.

If we assume that the dogs were handled properly and trained properly, then it pays to look closely at the dog indications in this case, keeping in mind the limitations of their capabilities. The dog's record of success, their use both in the UK and in the US argue for an assumption that both dogs and handler are first class representatives of the genre.

What alerts did the dogs give?

www.mccannfiles.com...

On July 31, 07, the sniffer dogs searched Apt 5a (the McCann's apartment) at the Ocean Club.

Cadaver odour is indicated in the McCanns bedroom by the wardrobe, in the living room behind a sofa and a light scent indicated outside in a flowerbed. A blood indication is made behind the sofa.

On August 2, 07, at the McCann's villa:

Cadaver odour is indicated on two pieces of Kate's clothing (trousers and blouse), on a red T-shirt believed to belong to Madeleine and on the soft toy known as 'Cuddle Cat'.

On August 6, 07,

Cadaver odour is indicated on the McCanns Renault Scenic hire car and also the key of the vehicle. Blood is indicated on the key of the vehicle and the interior of the car's boot.

The dogs gave no alerts during a very thorough examination of Robert Murat's home and no alerts during the searches of the apartments of the other members of the Tapas 9. They gave no alerts on the other nine vehicles in the garage with the McCann's Renault Scenic.

Either the dogs were being cued to alert to things and places associated with the McCanns by their crooked handler and the corrupt police forces of the UK and Portugal or the dogs were genuinely detecting blood and death associated with the McCanns.

If the dogs were simply making mistakes there should be a more random and non selective distribution of the mistakes.

The dog indications are still no more than indications, though, as others have pointed out.

Originally posted by mmiichael
The McCanns will always be given the benefit of the doubt as this is high profile and no one wants to mistakenly condemn people later proven to be innocent. Were this a low level case with known previous offenders of any type of crime it might be ramrodded into a guilty verdict.

Police forces of late have come under a lot of scrutiny and criticism as we are finding many people falsely imprisoned, some even executed, who were later exonerated by new techniques like DNA testing.

That's not the case with Portugal, maybe in part because of our relatively short sentences.

And I don't remember any case that was "rushed" to a specific verdict, in Portugal the problem is precisely the opposite, most trials take too long.

Many times people are on preventive imprisonment awaiting trial for so long that when they finally get their sentence, it's shorter than the preventive imprisonment period. Portugal appears on Amnesty International list every year because of that.

I never follow these cases but this one is more like a problem solving exercise.

If the parents did hide the child's corpse, and I'm leaning towards believing they did - when, what, where, how? Was it discovered, hidden in a vehicle, in someone else's rental unit?

What are the most credible theories on this?


M

reply to post by mmiichael

Amaral's own theory involves refridgeration. He thinks that because there were fluids found in the Renault, Madeleine's body must have been refridgerated or frozen during the period it was hidden.

The Smith family's sighting of a man carrying a child around 10:00 PM on the night of the disappearance and the location of that sighting, not far from the church, makes me wonder if somehow the person carrying the child had access to the church and to a refridgerator or freezer in the church.

I haven't looked carefully at this aspect of things. We know too little about the precise movements of the Tapas 9 on the evening in question. We know nothing about the church facilities or other facilities that might have been accessible on that night.

Amaral does not believe that Madeleine's body was buried. If that were the case, he says that some degree of "mummification" would have taken place. I haven't looked into this aspect of the case at all.

The police are holding details back, I am sure. One wonders why they have not charged the McCanns. The confusion with regard to the DNA results must be a big factor. The DNA sample contained too many elements from the McCann family to enable identification of any one individual.

I think this is why so much was made of the question of Madeleine's real biological parents. I believe there is one Portugese paper that still stands by a story that Gerry McCann is not the biological father of Madeleine. I have never heard about this question being conclusively resolved.

Obviously that question is at the top level of any inquiry involving DNA. I don't believe that the Portugese police have pronounced on the matter. In fact, although it may be out there, I am not aware of a detailed breakdown of what the DNA tests found, both of blood and fluids and in all locations in which they were found.

This keeps getting more complicated. The McCanns may completely amoral sociopaths out of some bad Hollywood movie - or just an unfortunate couple who have had their dirty laundry aired in public like some celeb .

From some experience related, the real bottom line is no prosecuting body want to take the chance of falsely convicting two white English doctors whose daughter may actually have been abducted.

They'd have to have iron-clad testimony and evidence. N o weight of circumstantial evidence or high probability would suffice.

I don't think this is forthcoming. So the McCanns just walk, guilty or not.

I hate to sound callous, but there are terrible things happening to children all over the world every minute. Thousands die terribly every years. 99% of those responsible never see any legal redress.

This case is fascinating as a puzzle. But the poor little girl is dead, almost certainly. The parents have two more children to raise. At the very least they'll be extra careful not to do something wrong.

Life goes on.

reply to post by mmiichael

I agree that Madeleine is very likely dead.

I think her parents have taken a lot of money from a lot of people in a campaign that, if she actually had been kidnapped, would virtually guarantee that she would then be killed.

This is actually quite a good reason to believe that they knew she was dead before they even started the campaign.

They could easily and much more smartly have issued a general description of a four year old blonde female, and even have issued a photo that did not emphasize the dark patch in her eye. Little blonde four year olds are pretty much the same everywhere.

Cute little Bushra ben Hisa, spotted in Morrocco, is a perfect case in point.

They would have had as many sightings. Instead they turned their daughter into an item that was way too hot to handle, but who served another important purpose, i.e., to grab the world's attention and sympathy, so that they could carry on with their lives, without facing charges of child endangerment.

They now carry on, fighting for their lives and their surviving children's lives. I'm sure they are a much different couple from the couple who got up to a bright new day on May 3, 07.

Maybe the situation as it is now, is the best one could wish for. Putting Kate and Gerry in jail would ruin the lives of the twins and perhaps do other unforeseen damage in exchange for very little good.

Watching the story unfold is quite fascinating. The more bigwigs who endorse the McCann's efforts, the more difficult it will be to ever charge them with anything, at least in the UK, where their big and prestigious backers are.

As with the OJ Simpson case and the issue of 9/11, the more big name individuals who lend their names to one side of an issue, the less chance of an informed and impartial rendering of judgement on the topic. If Kate and Gerry were indicted for any felony in connection with this case, numerous people and institutions in the UK would suffer embarrassment and loss of face.

It's not going to happen, at least not in the UK.

The only thing that could change that is some kind of breakthrough by police or some kind of breakdown (or breakup) among the Tapas 9 and that seems unlikely, but not impossible.



[edit on 23-1-2010 by ipsedixit]

Have avidly, almost obsessively followed the disappearance of Madeleine McCann since late May 2007.

The following is strictly my personal opinion.

Madeleine Beth McCann is dead, earlier than May 3 quite possibly May 1 2007 not as the result of a straight forward accident.The parents and holiday friends know this, although they may know different versions of the story.Reading the rogatory interviews you can see that all the Tapas 9 are lying as there is no consistency in there tales....Why are they ALL lying ?

The control of the media, Government involvement/ interference, visits to the Pope, legal precedents, Portuguese Government rolling over, blatant witness intimidation, D notices and attempts at internet censorship are not at the behest of a pair of run of the mill doctors.....Ruperts media has actually been spreading propaganda and portraying the McCanns in a positive light....Why ?

Someone or something HUGE is behind all this.... None of the T9 are related to any big hitters..

There was talk of Andrew Brown (Gordons brother) being on holiday with them when this all occurred....He is involved with Committee on Medical Aspects of Radiation in the Environment (COMARE) which advises Government departments on the effects of radiation.Gerry McCann is apparently an advisor to this body.

The P word obviously crosses class boundaries and appears to involve alot of well connected people.....

IMO Madeleine McCann was a clone, created in Holland in 2003, not legally a person, DNA that wouldnt match that of her 'parents' and a subject no Government would want to confront....

Originally posted by 00112245712198


IMO Madeleine McCann was a clone, created in Holland in 2003, not legally a person, DNA that wouldnt match that of her 'parents' and a subject no Government would want to confront....

Interesting theory! Have you got any more info on this? Or can you expand on why you think this?

Originally posted by unicorn1
Anyway here is a question for the super sleuths out there. If the apartment was left unlocked as reported and you returned to find your child missing, why would you automatically assume the child has been abducted?

I can answer this one from experience.

My daughter disappeared from our newly rented home one afternoon when I had been out the back gardening. She was just a bit younger than Madeleine. I had no theory, just a total mind-freeze of "she can't be gone!"

I searched the house, the garden, ran up the street in both directions asking the closest shopkeepers if they'd seen her, ran back home and searched more carefully, looking in all the cupboards she might have hidden in, then ran back up the street to a telephone and rang the police saying my daughter seemed to be missing. I probably did all that in about 10 minutes.

In this case it was the police who assumed abduction because there was a dangerous prison escapee on the loose in my area that day. But even hearing that I was not jumping to conclusions and was hoping she had just wandered off.

Originally posted by mmiichael
You've never been around kids. The ongoing fear of parents especially with a young daughter, is that their child will be taken away from them. Embedded instinctual parental fear is their child will be abducted, harmed, raped, murdered.

It's the first and overriding thought any parent has even when their kid has just is out of sight or not where they are expected to be.

Absolute cowcrap. Your first thought is that the child must be there, somewhere. A parent's mind at that time goes through a hundred terrifying possibilities. And the more intelligent you are the more possibilities you will come up with. That's a function of intelligence.

Originally posted by ipsedixit
I think a lot of the behavior of the McCanns can be explained by their high IQs and their medical backround. If one analyses the case carefully, and by the case I mean the McCann's particular situation from the moment that something happened to Madeleine, onward, It becomes clear that prioritising their response to the situation was critical.

This is because they faced two very dangerous threats. Ranking these two threats is critical to understanding the McCanns behavior.
There is no doubt that charges of child neglect or child endangerment were the most serious and potentially damaging danger that they faced.

If your child disappears, it's the worst, most nightmarish thing that can happen to you. All you want in the whole world is your own child back. You no longer give a damn about your career, your reputation, endangering yourself in any way, you just do everything in your power, including opening up your whole life to police and answering every question, in the hope it will help them find her.

I assumed and expected that when I reported my daughter missing I would be their first suspect. But that was not even a consideration, just something I knew was part of the policeman's job. So I answered every question they asked and gave them 100% co-operation so they could check me out as fast as possible and get on with the investigation.



By the way, this ended happily 5 hours later with the police and I, they had little children of their own and seemed to care as much as I did, joining hands and dancing in the middle of a major highway at peak-hour when she was found. - Stupid, yes, but we were so over-the-moon to have her found we didn't even know what we were doing.

If the detective is right about the body being refrigerated, or at least kept somewhere cool, then surely it must be possible to find where it was kept.

You would assume that for dna/cadaver traces to be in a car hired 23 days after she went missing that this must be the obly answer, but it leads to some other questions.

If The McCanns had found someone willing to help them conceal the body, why would the McC's move the body themselves?

If someone was willing to partake in this, then surely they could have moved the body themselves later rather than running the risk of the McCs doing it and being caught (they might be being watched for example), which would in turn implicate their involvement.

So where could you hide/refrigerate/keep a body cool where no one is likely to find it for a few weeks?

The church crypt? - The McCs had access (they were given the keys) and the priest is now very unhappy with "being betrayed."

Under water? - would this even be possible? It would have to be outdoors, so the body could easily be found. Also, how would they recover the body?

In a fridge contained somewhere that it can be powered yet won't be found. - How would they find such a place? Could they have used the fridge from the apartment, and how could they disguise this?

There cannot be too many places where the body could have been hidden and kept cool, so surely it can't be that difficult to trace it.

Shame they didn't have a tracker on the car, but Isuppose that if GM and/or KM had their mobile phone on them then it should be possible to get a general idea of where they were at any given time from the phones interactions with mobile towers - as the Police did in the Ian Huntley case.

That might lead to finding where the body was hidden, and where it was finally laid to rest.

Surprising they haven't done this already.

If they were involved and MM wasn't abducted, allegedly, perhaps, maybe, etc

I wonder what talking with the witnesses of them in the resturant revealed? I would like to know how long they dined and in what mood they appeared to be. Could they have already killed the child and then gone out to cover their tracks?

I mean really, noone would go out in a distant country, and leave all their children alone.

reply to post by antar

Originally posted by antar
I mean really, noone would go out in a distant country, and leave all their children alone.

Exactly!

I have worked at vacation spots for the wealthy. From my experience wealthy families always bring the nanny. Sometimes if multiple families vacationed together with many children several nannies would accompany them. Infants would often have their own private nanny with the older children being watched by another.

I waited on many nanny tables. Often the parents would request a separate dining room. The parents would enjoy their evening without having to tend to children. The nanny/children would leave early. This was the norm. I worked days off at the ski area daycare it was used exclusively by employees or locals. The wealthy vacationers didn't use it they preferred their own nannies.

I thought of looking into some things I have taken for granted, starting with the distance from the tapas bar to the McCanns' room.

The problem with things like this is that we may create a mental image of the place of we use it as a reference, and, at least in my case, that mental image is nothing like the reality.

This is a photo showing the tapas bar (number 1) and the entrance to the short stairway leading to the back door of the McCanns appartment (number 4).


(source)

I hope this helps other people too.

Originally posted by 00112245712198
Madeleine Beth McCann is dead, earlier than May 3 quite possibly May 1 2007 not as the result of a straight forward accident.

She was seen on May 3 by a witness, manager of the beach-side Paraíso restaurant.

Originally posted by Kailassa


So I answered every question they asked and gave them 100% co-operation so they could check me out as fast as possible and get on with the investigation.

Sorry if I misunderstood your post...Are you saying team McCann are innocent or guilty...?

Drawing on your experience, why would someone not answer the Police's questions?

You answered the questions, why would a caring worried mother like KM not answer 48 questions posed to her?

edit to add: IMO its all abt the fridge...

[edit on 23-1-2010 by slinkey10]

Originally posted by Kailassa
If your child disappears, it's the worst, most nightmarish thing that can happen to you. All you want in the whole world is your own child back. You no longer give a damn about your career, your reputation, endangering yourself in any way, you just do everything in your power, including opening up your whole life to police and answering every question, in the hope it will help them find her.

Congratulations on your good fortune in finding your daughter unharmed.

I think that what you say is very reasonable and probably accurate for most people. It is the contrast between this attitude and the attitude and actions of the McCanns that makes people suspicious of them. Their behavior made the police suspect them almost right from the beginning. They have been atypical all the way along.

They certainly have not answered every question the police put to them. Kate McCann answered zero questions in her rogatory interview.

And then there are the cadaver dog indications.

I agree Kate not answering the questions looks suspicious. But just to play devils advocate, she was probably so advised by her lawyer. She was after all dealing with a foreign justice system and fighting to keep her family together. There were the twins to consider.
That said, too many things just don't add up here.