A curious object is about to fly past Earth

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101
reply to post by Box of Rain

 

While that is true, do know that NORAD keeps track of every space junk, down to a piece of nut, more so when this 'oddity' is of size that can be seen with telescope, let alone radar tracked. NORAD certainly isnt being very forthcoming with informing the scientific community what it is, while the russians with equal capabilities, are saying something else.....

Perhaps (or perhaps not) they track everything in Earth orbit, but that's not the same as tracking everything. This object may be in solar orbit -- or it is at the very leats in a verrrry large or very elliptical Earth orbit.

As an example, the third stage booster rockets from Apollo as mentioned in a post above are somewhere in solar orbit, and supposedly nobody is exactly sure where they are.

So - as you claim - if NORAD does know where the Apollo third stage rockets are, then they are not sharing that seemingly innocent information with anyone. Considering this, it seems more likely to me that NORAD is not tracking all man-made objects in a solar orbit. And even if they are, this could still be man-made junk.

[edit on 12-1-2010 by Box of Rain]

reply to post by Box of Rain


Hold on to your horses, I am not claiming it to be something else artifical or unartificial unlike you. I have no wish to speculate, for there is no evidence YET to suggest it is anything other a dot on a screen.

We dont have to wait long anyway, as the closest approach will be tomorrow, and with the best telescopes, something may be made out of it.

So at this point of time, it is all pure speculation.

Cheers

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101
reply to post by Box of Rain

 

While that is true, do know that NORAD keeps track of every space junk, down to a piece of nut, more so when this 'oddity' is of size that can be seen with telescope, let alone radar tracked. NORAD certainly isnt being very forthcoming with informing the scientific community what it is, while the russians with equal capabilities, are saying something else.....

Are you ordering me to 'know' something that you have made up out of your wild imagination? I choose to disobey you.

...because you're wrong. NORAD's radar trackers are good out to a few tens of thousands of miles at most. They do NOT have any ability -- nor do its tracking telescopes -- of following the paths of 'escaped' objects beyond the moon.

It's amazing how weird your opinions can get when you can make false 'factoids' up out of thin air -- or the vacuum of space.

reply to post by SeekerofTruth101

I was responding to line in your post when you said certain evidence "...rules out the object of being terresterial origin such as boosters from rockets or space metallic junk". I was just pointing out to you that nothing yet rules out this being man-made.

And I never said it is definitely man-made, either (and I thought that was clear by my use of the phrase "this could still be man-made" in my earlier post).


[edit on 1/12/2010 by Box of Rain]

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101
reply to post by Box of Rain

 

Hold on to your horses, I am not claiming it to be something else artifical or unartificial unlike you. I have no wish to speculate, for there is no evidence YET to suggest it is anything other a dot on a screen.

We dont have to wait long anyway, as the closest approach will be tomorrow, and with the best telescopes, something may be made out of it.

So at this point of time, it is all pure speculation.

Cheers

It'll probably be too small for more than a single pixel image, BUT spectral analysis could be helpful -- as in, what brand of white paint did it use? Also, a good light curve -- how fast and how much it brightens and dims as it spins -- also provides differential data.

Its "size" so far is only estimated on assumptions of its surface material, and the albedo of its surface. If it's very white, its dimensions could be a lot less and still give the same brightness in the pixel.

Originally posted by Box of Rain
As an example, the third stage booster rockets from Apollo as mentioned in a post above are somewhere in solar orbit, and supposedly nobody is exactly sure where they are.

Good point. There also are a whole s**tload of SLA panels, big, and white on one side, tumbling away.

Curious that it orbits around Venus, similar orbital nodes as well, and back to Earth in a one year cycle.
JPL Applet
Could this be part of a Venus probe like Magellan or Venera?

I do not know if it will work, but I am going to point my crappy tripod mounted digicam in the direction of Orion tomorrow night and make exposures about twenty minutes apart. Then string them together in an animation and see if this thing shows up as a moving point of light.

I wish I had a barn door tracker to interface my camera to the heavens.

Barn Door Tracker

Barn Door Tracker 2

Barn Door Tracker 3

Barn Door Tracker 4 On link 4 you will have to choose Barn Door Mount from the left hand menu.

Barn Door Tracker 5

Barn Door Tracker 6

Barn Door Tracker 7

Barn Door Tracker 8





[edit on 1-12-2010 by groingrinder]

[edit on 1-12-2010 by groingrinder]

Originally posted by Devino
Curious that it orbits around Venus, similar orbital nodes as well, and back to Earth in a one year cycle.
JPL Applet
Could this be part of a Venus probe like Magellan or Venera?

That's an interesting thought...Here's another:

Perhaps it's the Centaur booster engine from the Cassini Spacecraft. If you remember, Cassini was not launched directly toward Saturn, but was lauched toward Venus to get a gravity assist from Venus, then another gravity assist from the Earth.

After the Centaur booster did it's job and pointed Cassini toward Venus, the Centaur separated from the probe. Cassini later went on to do a fly-by of Venus (gravity-assist), then a fly-by of Earth (gravity-assist). Perhaps it's just a coincidence, but that graphic you posted shows the orbit of "2010 AL30" as flying-by the orbits of both Venus and the Earth, very similar to Cassini's original trajectory after launch.

Perhaps the Centaur followed the path of Cassini for a while before being pulled back into an orbit that still keeps it near Venus and Earth. What I'm say is that while Cassini slingshot past the Earth towards Saturn, the Centaur may have been grabbed by the Earth's gravity which flung it back toward Venus.

Edit to add:
By the way, the Centaur upper stage used on Cassini was about 9 meters tall and 4 meters in diameter.


[edit on 1/12/2010 by Box of Rain]

Hello ,

We should have a better view of the object by tomorrow. The size of the object appears to be 18 meters as mentioned on spaceweather.com. I am not surprised we do not know what is it as the military of several countries also got quite some activity out-there , so it could be a booster from military equipment too.

ps: I still wish it is an UFO haha

[edit on 12-1-2010 by Romanian]

I hope its a UFO as well. but theyre too sly to be discovered and keep a close eye on...

How funny would it be if it was that tether incident coming back to us? haha the aliens were prolly like "F*& that lets throw it back at them!!" haha

reply to post by Box of Rain

The Cassini space probe performed two gravitational-assist fly-bys of Venus on April 26, 1998, and June 24, 1999.
On August 18, 1999, at 03:28 UTC, the Cassini craft made a gravitational-assist flyby of the Earth. One hour and 20 minutes before closest approach, Cassini made the closest approach to the Earth's Moon at 377,000 kilometers, and it took a series of calibration photos.

Venus/Earth fly by.

If Cassini's booster rocket, Centaur, was released after a burn towards Venus then it would remain in this orbit unless otherwise impeded by another force. From this information I assume that Cassini would have to make another burn to accelerate out of this Earth/Venus orbit leaving the Centaur booster behind.

If this is indeed the case then I find it curious that it is just now being rediscovered over ten years later.

reply to post by Devino

They have only been tracking this object for a couple of days now, so they are extrapolating the orbit based on the small arc or trajectory that they have observed. They have no idea (at the moment) what this object's past orbital history was.

Maybe it's possible that this is Cassini's Centaur, which was in a different orbit for most of the past 10 years, but whose orbit was recently perturbed by Venus, which then put it in it's present orbit. That could be why it was not noticed until now.

I'm not saying this IS Cassini's Centaur, but perhaps is could be? Or perhaps it's another piece of junk, or an asteroid -- or, who knows?, maybe even an alien-made craft .

And by the way, Cassini did have its own motor to conduct correction burns -- but that's not necessarily how it could have escaped the Earth-Venus orbit to go to Saturn. Because Cassini and the Centaur were on slightly different trajectories after they separated, it's possible that the slight differences in trajectory is what allowed Cassini to slingshot past Earth while the Centaur may have been captured by Earth's gravity back into an Earth-Venus orbit.

That difference in the original trajectories of the two objects (after separation) could have resulted in one heading to Saturn and one orbiting between Earth and Venus, without either of them making another burn.

But, like I said, it could be plenty of other things.

[edit on 1/12/2010 by Box of Rain]

reply to post by Box of Rain


What time will I pick it up in the UK, I have a fairly decent scope.

2nd Line

Originally posted by Bunker or Bust
reply to post by Box of Rain

 

What time will I pick it up in the UK, I have a fairly decent scope.

2nd Line

Look it up here:
ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...
I'm planning to put it into cartes du ciel if I can so I can follow it without generating second by second coordinates: I hear it'll be moving at 10"/sec at close approach.

Will this object be visible in all hemispheres or do I have to be in Alaska to see it? 99% chance it's just a asteroid.

reply to post by Imagir

Thanks for posting the image. In answer to your question, it looks to me like a black dot with a circle around it. No offense meant my friend, I just couldn't resist.

Originally posted by SuperSlovak
Will this object be visible in all hemispheres or do I have to be in Alaska to see it? 99% chance it's just a asteroid.

Northern hemisphere should be able to see it all throughout tonight, though it'll get brighter by about a magnitude by the time it reaches closest approach.

Originally posted by sunspot0
reply to post by Larryman

 

Well first off all its a 30 foot asteroid and second its a third of the moons distance not 3 tenths so we are pretty safe

cheers

So like .3333 is so much more comforting than .3000 ?

I was wondering if this was sarcasm or not. Anyway, that would be considered a NEAR MISS in stellar terms.

>> I don't think that our magnetic field is strong enough to pull in something like this made of iron. With a 1-year period and that density, it's probably got way too much inertia.

Volume of a 60ft sphere; (4/3) * pi * radius3
= 113,097 cu\Feet
Assuming a Weight of 1 cubic foot of cast iron = 450
Then we look a force:
F = ma
V = d/t (so T = d/v)
a = v/t

Assume that the change in velocity is pretty much it's speed (really fast) going to nearly zero. Big-big fireball in the sky in atmosphere but not much would be burned up.

A lot is depending on the angle of approach. If you assume it's "grabbed" by gravity, and just falls as an object from the sky, that's going to be a lot different than an impact straight at earth. So this goes from algebra to calculus if it's anything between a straight impact or a drop.

LINK

The country's leading astronomer said he expects the meteor to prove to be the largest to hit Norway in modern times, even bigger than the 198-pound Alta meteorite of 1904. 'If the meteorite was as large as it seems to have been, we can compare it to the Hiroshima bomb. Of course the meteorite is not radioactive, but in explosive force we may be able to compare it to the bomb.'

I'm kind of out of my element on this, maybe a REAL astronomer or ballistics person can get it right -- but just falling in terms of a normal meteorite, at 450lbs a cubic foot, you can just make a really rough guess of 113,097 atomic bombs in force.

Though, we could just say Two Atomic Bombs, up to A LOT -- and say that such an object hitting the earth would be the event of the year -- or the event of the century.

Originally posted by Box of Rain
They have only been tracking this object for a couple of days now, so they are extrapolating the orbit based on the small arc or trajectory that they have observed. They have no idea (at the moment) what this object's past orbital history was.

I figured that it goes without saying that this is all based on what little information we have now. My basis for a connection with Earth relies on an orbit of one year that comes close to Earth's orbit.
It orbits the Sun in near the same time that Earth does (1 year), assuming the estimated trajectories are correct. Because it appears to also follow the orbital path of Venus, orbital direction and node crossing with a similar angle of obliquity, I surmised that it was connected with both Earth and Venus.

I don't think a natural object would just so happen to mimic the complicated orbit motions of the spacecraft Cassini, if this is indeed the case.