reply to post by karl 12
The man died in 1994, before modern methods of analysis. We hadn't even yet explored some of the extrema-morphs of life on Earth.
Let me whoop some good 'ol modern science up for you.
Osmotic pressure. It's what , amongst other things, lets trees grow tall.
it also allows trees to correlate with gravity. In gliese 581, the planet that is 1/3 bigger than earth? trees would be 3x shorter due to linear
relationships between max height and gravity. Predators can reach trees then. That means no primates, because they can't escape predators, as that
video we've all seen of the monkey annoying the tiger. No humans can ever exist. Too much gravity makes bipedal upright stature unfavorable. The
crane system like dinosaurs is far easier. They win.
3x less? like on Mars? 3x taller means primates can't exist. They fall, they die. They can never come down from the trees. They get too strong to
resist the fall? they either climb up, or go down. Big brains can't exist because light gravity means the bipedal creature has to be tall. Too tall
and it just falls down too much due to the accelerating nature of gravity. byby humans.
They get worse as you extrema the planet's gravity.
How about Earth? Upright bipedal motion only exists for 2 species I can remember: penguins and humans. And only one of those species is intelligent.
Now let's compare shall we?
The number of species with sentient-like intelligence is as follows:
elephants, whales, parrots, dolphins, crows, primates.
The number of species who seem to be in the direction of more intelligence in the future, or currently display abnormal intelligence for their species
groups are as follows:
cuttlefish, squid, octopus, pigeons, pigs, squirrels, and one other bird I forgot the name of.
Ok, so now let's account for a total number of all intelligent species besides man who ever existed on earth. For this we will be including extinct
species such as trodon, and a few other dinosaurs. We will NOT be including anything after homo erectus, because they poses the earth bias, where as
we are assuming that any change of the planet would have made their ability to survive impossible (as evident by the fact they went extinct the second
they couldn't find water, while our more intelligent ancestors learned to store water)
When we look at extinct species, we are taking into account relativity. That being that dinosaurs existed for 170 million or so years, and because
only the most intelligent species survive as a rule of thumb in evolution (as evident by early homo species wiping out most other species, and then
their ancestors, us, wiping them out. )
extinct higher intelligent species:
Trodon- as intelligent as a modern lower mammal.
Deinonychus- pack hunters that paralleled early man in their place in nature.
Tyrannosaurus Rex- dumber than cats and dogs, but smarter than most small mammals
Oviraptor- The ancient ostrich, which was almost an exact clone in behavior and appearance. modern ostriches play dead with predators, trap them, and
care for their young. Fossil records suggest similar behavior.
Maiasaura- care for young bordering the intelligence of most successful mammals. They also had herds in the 10,000s, requiring certain levels of
forethought for their size.
Ornithomimus- same thing as oviraptors in behavior.
Mammoths- As smart as modern elephants. Recognized death, was elf aware, etc etc.
So what we come down to is a total number of 12 current species. There are a total of some 7 extinct species as well. we now have a total of 19
species, with 20 including man.
MATH TIME BABY!
There are currently around 424 planets known to exist. out there, plus our 9 (Pluto IS a planet!) Due to the size of some moons and the chances of
them having life relevant, as well as the high probability that other gas giants have moons (as all ours do), we will be doing some additional
424 planets. out of these, only around 3 are known to be close to earth's size, ie, rocky. I'm going to go with 5 here, because many are unknown,
and that's around their rate of discovery and natural distribution. I'm also going to go with 10 total earth like world, because for every one
slightly bigger, natural mass distribution allows for smaller ones just as likely.
So we have 10 independent worlds the size of earth. Because the rest are likely gas giants, we're going to give 1 moon for each one, because it's
very likely they have moons, but we'll go for one just to be fair.
New calculations also suggest that low mass worlds would be pretty common, around 2x that of gas giants, so this allows us to be pretty accurate.
So we can take around 415 planets, and guess up to 830 earth-like worlds, each ranging between 1/3, 1, and 3x earth masses, because that's how it
looks so far. so that makes for 210 on each. 830, plus the 1 moon for each gas giant, is 1245 planets relative to 400 stars. so around 3x as many
planets as stars. There are around 200-400 billion stars in the milky way, so we're going with around 300 billion to be safe. out of this, the outer
stars are more gassy, while the inner stars are mostly carbon planets made of oil, gasoline, petro, etc etc. They're probably not going to have life,
despite the large amount of carbon. Most of the carbon is going to have been bonded to other stuff, and blocking the ability of water to form. No
water, and not much silicon, means not much life. So we're going to go with probably 1% of life for the inner 3rd of the galaxy. We are on the
medium-outer rim of our galaxy, and because we have Gisele so close to ourselves, we're going to estimate that we're close to the maximum
distribution of earth-like worlds, because of the carbon issue closer to the galactic core.
Ok so, out of the 60ish stars in that range, only one other has Earth-like worlds, and two, just like us (mars). so that's good enough to do some
1% of 100 billion= 1 billion + 2% mid galactic radius= 2 bil + 3% for our area= 3 bill.
Thus we have 6 billion possible solar systems like ours. 18 billion possible worlds like ours. 18 billion correlates to 20 above with the total
species of higher intelligence.
MORE MATH TIME!
assuming that size distribution remains with the natural distribution of worlds, we can eliminate 12 billion of these worlds from having earth-like
life due to their gravity changes. 6 billion worlds are likely to have species like birds, Cephalopods, and dinosaurs be their sentient species. And 6
billion are likely to have species like Elephants, whales, and large dinosaurs as their sentient life. And 6 billion are likely to have Earth-like
Let's stick with the 6 billion Earth-like ones. The others would have more successful species become sentient than man.
On Earth, Humans were not capable of evolving into as they are without other events. The extinction that allowed dinosaurs to evolve, and mammals,
killed off more than 97% of species ever to exist have become extinct. And only the best to survive in the conditions set forth survived. Man can only
have 1/20th of a chance to survive to be come THE smartest species, amongst it's brothers, surviving all extinction. 1/20th of these 6 billion thus
must not have humanoids. Now we're down to 300 million that have emulated Earth's evolution. Mankind's survival rates can be compared with the
total number of primates and itself. there are currently. 300-400 species of primates. So man had around 1/350 chance of surviving it's fellow
primates to become as it is. BUT WAIT! there are many extinct primates that could have out competed man if anything changed. so that's around 38
more. Thus, Early man, to have evolved, would have to out compete some 400 other species. So out of those 300 million worlds, only 1/400 had the right
conditions to allow early man to exist. That's a 4th of a percent. 750,000 worlds. These can then be divided into 3 groups. Hot, cold, and temperate.
Too Hot, and the ice age never happens to allow man kind to exist. Too cold, and mankind can't exist, just Neanderthal-like species with more fur. So
we'll take the 3rd of possible Earth clone worlds, not just Earth-like. I do this now, not earlier, because it has to be DURING this species
existence, and climate change happens over time. SO we come down to 250,000 worlds. But we can divide more! There was a large population of early men,
these being neanderthals, homo erectus, and our ancestors. We are now operating on worlds just like earth, because any change and humans won't meet
the conditions to have evolved as they did. These may be reptilians, or grays. But to evolve like us, they would need the same conditions. So of these
250,000 worlds, we have to do some work with how humans evolved. In the beginning, the number of Neanderthals and Homo erectus were the same. Our
ancestors directly replaced homo erectus. Because humans came very close to going extinct though and we want something with human look AND human mind.
Just human mind or human look is totally different. So, we know have to do some extreme things. The natural probability of one species to survive
should mirror the distribution between extinct species and living ones, because of the fact that it's chances on this earth-like world are just like
that. That means that this early man has a 3% chance of surviving or going extinct. From a large population across north Africa, only some few caves
are estimated to have survived the stress of the ice age and other events that created us. and from that, a population around 20,000 formed. So, 3% of
250,000 worlds. 75,000 worlds where men evolve, in our general shape and mind. From this, it narrows down even further. nuclear war, disease, etc
etc.... you can guess how few survived. But there's no way to directly amke a probability of it.