Chinese economic collapse, 'Dubai times 1,000'

reply to post by Misoir


I just checked about a half dozen China ETFs or exchange traded funds that are a good barometer. If anything they are bullish rather than bearish on China today. There seems to be only one guy betting against China, Mr Chanos and he has little leverage himself.

All the factors he mentioned about China, the real estate bubble, the unstable banking system, the top heavy management, good old boy system, overborrowing, book cooking tendencies, stretching the truth, have been well know and recognized for years. Mr Chanos is the only one trying to short the Chinese market and even he admits it is difficult.

My advise is to put in some stops at about 15% on your China stocks and go back to watching the Wild Card Playoffs!

Well here's the thing...
China always wanted to be a major player in the global market system but never really understood capitalism... it runs contrary to their communism... So they had this huge influx of cash and they did what a lot of people do who find sudden wealth, they went crazy...


The analogy between the UAE and China is appropriate... what we all saw them do in Dubai worlds largest tower, private island... the Chinese did on an even grander scale

Filmed during and after G2E Asia in 2008. Views of Macau's Casinos in the downtown area and along the Cotai Strip.


If that's not enough for you Check out Shanghai Today... holds a record, over 4,000 skyscrapers and they plan to add another 1,000 in the next few years.


The growth in Shanghai has been nothing short of explosive from 7 million to 20 million in as many years the pace of expansion was incredible... was it all fueled by foreign investments? in part but they too have their own notes for loans that are now coming due. to make matters worse we lowly Americans are buying less, so is the rest of the world... with deep cuts in those revenues it makes it harder and harder to make those payments...

even without the current crises there are many of us who believe capitalism and communism simply cannot coexist. if there is a bubble to burst one of the two of them must go... who's to blame... their own greed

But one thing in China's favor is that China knows how too do it tough! I think they will be alright not great but still make it through. They always do.

Originally posted by Zosynspiracy
Dubai x 1000? Is this guy a moron? More like America times a thousand. HAHA! What's going to happen to China is already happening here in the US. Hyperstimulated economy? CHECK!
Government bailouts? CHECK
Overextended real estate market aka speculative real estate capital? CHECK!

What this idiot fails to realize is that China is IN DEBT TO NO ONE! Unlike Dubai and America China OWNS other countries' debt. This guy is another useless talking head on Wallstreet just trying to make money. He doesn't care about anything else...........least of all his own country that has made him filthy rich while everyone around him is losing their rear end. Another empty WallStreet suit.

[edit on 9-1-2010 by Zosynspiracy]

I'd call you a moron and an idiot but then I'd be breaking the sites rules.

Do some research on him and others like him.

The global financial crisis was predicted long before it happened, by one man, but nobody would listen. Then it happened.

This guy predicting China's demise, is a billionaire.
Do you want to know how he made his fortune and how he continues to make money?
He puts money on 'bad' thing's happening economy wise...I'm not sure what the exact technical term is for that.

Do some research before making a fool of your self in the future.


If you want to listen to peoples predictions, it's people like this guy who you should be listening to carefully, not some deranged individual chasing non existent things.

God, re-reading the drivel you posted infuriates me.
You are so ignorant it's beyond belief you are even able to operate a computer without electrocuting your self.

Originally posted by MOTT the HOOPLE
But one thing in China's favor is that China knows how too do it tough! I think they will be alright not great but still make it through. They always do.

Well, I suppose you are right, there is after all, still a "China" after thousands of years. But, I think that your comment really depends on what you mean by "alright." China has made some pretty serious errors of judgment that have come with some pretty high human costs to its people.

www.times.com...

In the late 1950's and early 60's, China suffered a prolonged and terrible famine. The human toll was higher than from any other famine in modern times -- and in all likelihood, greater than from any previous famine in human history. While a precise count of the victims will never be possible, Western analyses of official Chinese census figures subsequently indicated that as many as 30 million Chinese perished from ''excess mortality'' between 1959 and 1961.

In a country with so many people, I suppose 30 million here or there may be a drop in the bucket, but..........I am not sure that qualifies as "doing alright." By that standard, basically any country can be said be doing alright.

[edit on 10-1-2010 by Illusionsaregrander]

Even if their economy does collapse, the Chinese populace will not be affected as much as we are now. Think about it. We Americans have mostly enjoyed this consumer-driven bloated dead fish of an economy right into it's state of near decomposition. Hopefully, Obama can reanimate it before the maggots finish feeding. Anyway, my point is that the vast majoriy of the people in their republic have never expierienced anything other than poverty (until recent times). Eating dirt and rocks won't be alien to some of them if their economy collapses. I, and many of my other fellow westerners, on the other hand, have never had to eat dirt and rocks before.

reply to post by SLAYER69


Luxembourg and the Caribbean Banks own 8.5% of US treasuries???? WTF. That really surprised me.

We have people on this forum and everywhere else stating we are in debt to China etc etc, but what happens if we can't pay our debt all the imaginary money China has disappears their super economy collapses on its self that has been my way of thinking this whole time. They say China is expanding out of the US but either way if only 20% of your economy went bankrupt what would happen that 20% is assuming Europe take a major role in China's export which won't happen any time soon.

reply to post by ahddm


Once there are more people with disposable cash in China, they will not need us to buy their trash. They can drive their own economy without us by buying it themselves.

reply to post by tamusan


If thats a photo of you and your family in your avatar, then yes, there are generations of Americans that are going to be very, very sad when the twinkies no longer flow like golden rivers into our grocery stores. But, I dont know that anyone anywhere is really ever prepared to eat dirt and rocks. And, remember that famine was largely caused by inefficiencies within the system itself, not by lack of grain. I have more faith in our system. (despite Katrina and other obvious examples of our incompetence.)

That to me is one of the things that makes a Chinese economic collapse plausible despite all the cheerleading. China isnt a capitalist democracy. (And yes, I know that could be argued about us as well) But its very political structure allows the strong possibility of group think, and concealment of flaws, and incentives to overstate on all levels. Just as it censors information its people are allowed to see from the outside world, I feel it is safe to assume that the information we on the outside are allowed to see is also censored. Group think alone can bring a company down. Group think coupled with censorship and little accountability of its leaders to its people is certainly a good recipe for disaster.

reply to post by tamusan


They will not be able to support a large majority of their economy though, much of rural China may not have disposable income for decades.

reply to post by Illusionsaregrander


I am in the top 50% of American income, but my parents are in the bottom 20%. I am only sharing this to establish that I have lived in both worlds. I didn't mean for the dirt and rocks part to be taken so literal. I was mostly alluding to how we here in the U.S. have been living large longer than the Chinese. I know so many people that have been hit hard by these bad economic times. They have lost it all. I'm lucky, because I learned to be frugal as a child (and my wife can squeeze a quarter out of a penny). We have traditionally had a fair portion of our society living in poverty, but so many of us have only seen debt to pay for giant houses and german luxury cars (myself included). I was trying to point out how those of us in that fortunate segment are going to feel the hit much harder than anyone in the PRC.

That's my wife, one of my sons (he's a step), and I in the photo. I don't understand why your response is contingent on that info. Maybe I'm fat and will miss the twinkies, but my wife and kids do not have an ounce of fat on their bodies. (nor are they Americans)

china is owed money yes LOTS and LOTS of it, mainly from western powers...

so im sure thay should be ok...


if thay ever get it back of course...


the global ressesion was created by western powers FACT, in a desprate bid to RESET/slow down the rise of foreign potential superpowers,

global warming is another bid to RESET/slow down the rise of foreign potential superpowers,

just have a little think about it.

reply to post by ahddm


That's true for the most part. One variable is that they do not need to exponentially inflate the price of domestically produced and sold items so that a dozen middlemen can turn a buck too. The problem for them is that their citizens with money do not want cheap Chinese crap. They want fine imports. Why do you think the Japanese are making a slight effort to improve relations. They see China as a place to unload what we Americans have stopped buying.

reply to post by tamusan


Lol, no, you arent fat. I was asking because of generation. Your age. I am of the same generation, and it is true, many Americans of our generation and younger are living large and are not used to doing without luxuries, (hence the twinkie comment) but many of us grew up like you did. I have also risen a good deal above the level I was born into. And, many older Americans have lived rough, (Depression era) or rural, and do know how to get by on little. I am not so frugal as to be able to squeeze a quarter from a penny, but I have saved, and even if it were all gone, I would be able to get by on whatever I could scrounge. I enjoy not having to scrounge, and I like to eat well, but I wouldnt be psychologically crushed if I had to. Some would, but I think the "spoiled American" thing is a bit overblown. We certainly have our fair share of those types, but we have also always had our fair share of the poor, the frugal, the hardworking and the rural. I think that we as a country could pull through some very rough times, and come out better for it. I personally think the bailout was a mistake, and that we should have let the cards fall where they may, suffer for our lack of oversight and excesses, and pick up and do better.

Nice family by the way.

Originally posted by SLAYER69
reply to post by 13579

 

Don't confuse Nationalism with CORPORATISM
Understand what's happening. The US is loosing jobs domestically and they wont come back as American Companies are also in the mix pumping Billions of dollars into the Chinese economy in search of ever increasing profits.

When that well runs dry...
And It Will in Time.

They will simply move on to India, The African continent or South America etc.

GM sales in China surge 67 percent in 2009

General Motors sales in China surged 67 percent last year, the company announced Monday, as the automaker and its joint ventures exploited rising affluence there to sell more than 1.8 million cars and trucks.

GM, already among the most important auto manufacturers in China, said the market share of its Chinese ventures rose to 13.4 percent, up 1.3 percentage points from 2008. Leading the company's sales in China were Buicks, as well as inexpensive small vans and pickups.

IBM Will Offer China Financing

International Business Machines Corp. said it will launch a financing business in China with chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. as its first client.

IBM will provide accounts-receivable lending, also called factoring, to AMD, providing them with upfront payment while they wait up to four months to receive payment from a customer.

IBM spokeswoman Harriet Ip said the deal would generate "hundreds of millions of dollars" of business for IBM this year. IBM also anticipates adding new customers for the financing unit.

The move highlights how IBM is branching into service, consulting, and financing businesses in China that are far removed from its original core business of manufacturing computers.

Well then that cinches it... the wealth is flowing to china, and then to be pumped back out into corps who are getting into the finance racket...

ugh

If their economy does collapse.

They will have to start selling there gold reserves.

China holds gold reserves of about 1,000 tons.

This being dropped on the market would send gold prices to $300/$400 a ounce.
gold prices are now around $1,128

It would also increase the value of the US dollar by a factor of 5 to 6.

Originally posted by ANNED
If their economy does collapse.

They will have to start selling there gold reserves.

China holds gold reserves of about 1,000 tons.

This being dropped on the market would send gold prices to $300/$400 a ounce.
gold prices are now around $1,128

It would also increase the value of the US dollar by a factor of 5 to 6.

Id be surprised if gold dropped that much my friend.

I did some quick calc. and if they sold all 1,000. tons, at current prices.

That would net them 35.2 billion, a sum I would like no doubt, but in

today's world, it is not really much at all.

Good, it will froce america to make its OWN rtelaible good again and pretty much halt global uniting for qutie some time
personally it sounds like fear mongring* thats all. china already owns over 84A% of land here in US, so its said* their not goin bankrupt anytime soon.

reply to post by Sean48


Yeah but in no way, shape, or form would they drop ALL OF THEIR GOLD. That is a hard asset that must be utilized. As for the USA, I believe it is known that WE in fact own most of our debt. That is US based treasuries bought up by US Reserves, can anyone clarify this?