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13.5% Unemployment - 9.1 Million jobs lost since Oct 08

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posted on Jan, 8 2010 @ 11:50 AM
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The BLS failed to increase the Labor Force number as the Population grew. This skews the employment rate.

Looking at the numbers on BLS here: ftp.bls.gov... and using numbers previously saved from that page, population has risen and fewer people are employed.

___________________October 2008___December 2009
Non Inst. Population ....... 234.6M ............. 236.9M ... ( 2.3M )
- Employed ...................... 144.6M ............. 137.7M ... ( 6.9M )
= Not working ................... 89.9M ............... 99.1M ... ( 9.1M )

Normally jobs grow as the population grows. The additional 2.3M people didn't have jobs waiting for them. Instead the number of jobs decreased by 6.9 Million, which means that a total of 9.1Million people who are not working normally would be.

Percentage not working grew from 38% (234.6/144.6), to 41.84% (236.9/99.1).

Now looking at the Unemployed numbers, they only related to the Civilian Labor Force numbers minus Employed. Fortunately for BLS the Civilian Labor Force number keeps decreasing even though population increases.

___________________October 2008___December 2009
Non Inst. Population ....... 234.6M ............. 236.9M ... ( 2.3M )
Civilian Labor Force ......... 154.9M ............. 153.0M ... ( -1.9M )
Percent of Population ........ 66.0% ............. 64.6%

Someone at BLS fudged the labor force number vs. Population. Now if this percentage was not adjusted, then Civilian Labor Force really is 156.4M for December (236.9 * .66). This means that there are more unemployed and the rate is higher (but you knew that).

___________________October 2008___December 2009___Corrected
Non Inst. Population ....... 234.6M ............. 236.9M .......... 236.9M
Civilian Labor Force ......... 154.9M ............. 153.0M .......... 156.4M
- Employed ...................... 144.6M ............. 137.7M .......... 137.7M
= Unemployed ................... 10.2M ............... 15.2M ............ 18.6M
= Unemployment rate.......... 6.6% ............... 10% ............ 13.5%

So the unemployment rate is 13.5% if the BLS corrected the math on their own site. We're not even questioning their numbers.




posted on Jan, 8 2010 @ 12:08 PM
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Excellent work.

I've pointed the same thing out several times as an obvious dodge to artificially deflate the unemployment figures. As you point out, using their own published numbers, they're off by 35%. Personally, I think the published numbers are as bogus as their calculations.

I'm really tired of being lied to.

Time to call DC again, not that it does any good.



posted on Jan, 8 2010 @ 12:09 PM
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Yea... things are definitely totaing a large amount of suckage. But as is true with so many things in life, there are two sides to the story. Here is an interesting chart showing job losses by month from January 2008, one month after thye start of the official recession:

chart and article

Being a glass-half-full kinda guy there is some (though not enough) positive take-away here.



posted on Jan, 8 2010 @ 01:09 PM
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Originally posted by Dbriefed
Fortunately for BLS the Civilian Labor Force number keeps decreasing even though population increases.


Didn't you mean, fortunately for the Administration? They are all liars, liars, pants on fires ... AND everyone KNOWS IT!



posted on Jan, 8 2010 @ 01:11 PM
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Dosnt this make you wonder, WHY obama wants to legalize 12 million illegals here, and not do anything for US, its citizens???



posted on Jan, 8 2010 @ 09:30 PM
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reply to post by ziggy1706
 


The reason Obama wants to legalize the illegals is that he needs some one to vote for him in 2012.



posted on Jan, 8 2010 @ 11:36 PM
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Never ending story.




posted on Jan, 9 2010 @ 07:18 AM
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I hate to be a party pooper but we’re all doomed (maybe).
It all started back when we won ww2. We were the only country left that still had a manufacturing infrastructure left unscathed. We rebuilt the world after the war and prospered handsomely from it. Resulting in dollar becoming the most trusted and strongest currency in the world.
Well it appears the rest of the world has finally caught up to us and now we have to compete with them. The only problem is the operating costs in these countries are a fraction of what they are here in the US. You can hirer several people in places like India for what it costs to have one worker here in the US do the same job. So over seas the jobs went, and we were convinced that we had become a service and information based economy. But we know all this.
The point is that companies will always be finding ways to do things for less. Now that we have collapsed or are collapsing are economies, companies have learned to do more with less. That is less employees and I don’t see them needing them back any time soon.
I believe the PTB feel the only way we can create more jobs in this country is to ether raise the cost of doing businesses abroad or reduce the salaries of are work force here at home. Typically salaries here at home will keep up with inflation year over year. But what if this time they didn’t and on top of that we had hyper inflation, a collapse of the dollar and soaring interest rates. Well as a result we would have a cheaper labor force. the dollar will be worth less in exchange for currencies abroad resulting in it costing more dollars to do business over seas. So with current salaries saying where they are and not adjusting up for inflation it may result in it becoming more attractive to return manufacturing to the US. And if rising interest rates and increased foreclosures bring property values down because no one will be buying, it will eventually balance out with reduced salaries of the work force.
Now I know this all sounds a bit crazy, but I think this may be the real recovery plan at work. The big down side to all of this of Corse is that the plan requires us to go through another great depression and this one will be much, much worse than the last one.
Well …have a happy day.



posted on Jan, 12 2010 @ 01:50 AM
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Something to backup those that state the unemployment rate is higher than 13.5%, state and local income tax is down 16.5% over a one-year period. I can't find Federal income tax revenue, maybe there's a link for that.

Source: www.census.gov...



Ah, found it...
www.cbo.gov...


REVENUES THROUGH NOVEMBER (Billions of dollars)

Major Source ............... Actual FY2009 ......... Preliminary FY2010 ....... Percentage Change
Individual Income ................... 146 ........................... 109 ........................ -25.5
Corporate Income ..................... 2 ............................. -8 ............................. n.a.
Social Insurance ..................... 135 ............................. 134 ........................ -1.1
Other ....................................... 26 ............................. 32 ............................. 23.6
Total ....................................... 310 ........................ 267 ............................. -13.7


So looks like Income Tax for state and local dropped 16.5% from Q308 - Q309, and Federal will drop by 25.5%.

Previous data was from the Congressional Budget Office Monthly statement from December 2009.

Yup, last few months of 2009 show a 20-25% decrease in Federal Income Tax receipts, here's a chart based on the last few years of data from Monthly reports here: www.cbo.gov...



Wow. Hard to justify 10% unemployment with revenue losses like that.


[edit on 12-1-2010 by Dbriefed]

[edit on 12-1-2010 by Dbriefed]



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