Although I am mainly talking about the US, I'm pretty sure the situation isn't that much different elsewhere in the world.
For years now I've watched the weather effects on the infrastructure and read reports about the deterioration of the infrastructure across the
nation, and wondered when the breaking point will come, and whether it will be gradual or sudden. By "gradual" I mean obviously happening over a
course of a couple of years, by "sudden", a couple of months. By breaking point I mean effecting the ability of the nation to maintain an economy,
i.e., contributing to or causing the nation's economic collapse.
Over the past few years there has been a large number of extraordinary floods, tornadoes, snowstorms and a lot of extremes in temperatures. Today, for
instance, there are reports of numerous water line breaks in many Plains and Midwest cities due to the cold. When seen in isolation, each is not much
of a much. A bridge goes down here, roads are damaged there, a few neighborhoods are without power or water for a few days, a road goes unrepaired for
a few months, and it simply seems locally bad but nationally insignificant. Cities like New Orleans and Cedar Rapids get devastated and much of the
damage is never repaired, but the stories just fade from the news.
But at what point does a lot of little local collapses turn into unrecoverable national disaster? How much more fraying can the infrastructure take
before there is a cascade failure? How many individual little things can go unrepaired because the money is needed more urgently for more obvious,
more dangerously ignored things that need repaired first?
Maintenance costs are abhorred by businessmen-politicians because they aren't sexy, they aren't grandly profitable, and if done right require either
tax increases or cutting more profitable programs, so for decades maintenance has been "deferred" by government entities of every size and locality.
As the economy worsens, maintenance money gets harder to come by and more likely to be diverted.
So the stage is now set, I think, for a spectacular collapse due an extreme wide-spread weather event, or more likely, a series of them. A road so bad
that it adds five minutes to travel time and a hundred or two a year in repair costs seems insignificant, but if there are ten or twenty such roads
along a trucking route, it adds a bigger drag every year. Adding a few degrees variation (colder winter temps, higher summer temps) speeds the decay
of bridges and roads, buildings in general. As this section or area is avoided, it puts more stress on the ones favored. I think it's highly possible
that a failure cascade could occur this spring if the weather is particularly bad: if major bridges, the roads leading to them, or railroad beds are
compromised the economic consequences could derail what little recovery there's been and cause severe to devastating problems.
So I ask my fellow ATS'ers to look around and report the state of their locality: which roads and bridges near you are really bad, which are
currently under repair. How are your sewage systems? How much weather damage has your area sustained over the past few years and is your local
government keeping up with repairs? Is there any stimulus money actually noticeably being spent on infrastructure repair? What kind of weather event
will be the local straw that breaks the camel's back? Any place where the morale of the locals is losing ground to continued floods, tornadoes or
other damaging events?
I'm trying to discern larger patterns from local reports to see where the rot is worst. It might help to know where the SHTF is likely to happen
first and what places to avoid due to infrastructure overload.
www.infrastructurereportcard.org...
www.cbsnews.com...
www.cedarrapidsfloodstory.com...
www.flickr.com...
[edit on 6-1-2010 by apacheman]