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Peter Schiff Predicts 2010, (4.1.10) not good

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posted on Jan, 15 2010 @ 05:36 AM
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Can anyone show me 1 prediction that was not just some generalized mambo jambo that was 100% spot on and came true? Otherwise everyone go about their business, nothing to see here.




posted on Jan, 15 2010 @ 03:09 PM
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Originally posted by poedxsoldiervet
Diddnt he say the dollar would fall in 2009? Or did he the economy would collapse? We should be able to see a trend here i hte next couple of months but I will be stocking up on Beans and bullets.


The US Dollar did go down a good deal in 2009.

US Dollar Value 2009 Chart

What he was saying concerning inflation already being here, I will explain. The prices on some things have gone up, while others have stayed the same. Many point to the fact that those things whose price hasn't gone up as being proof of no inflation. However the opposite is true. Price is the reflection of purchasing power as it related to supply and demand. So, why the dollar declining, it means we have less purchasing power since our dollars are worth less. Additionally with people and businesses buying less, supply is greater. Combine those two and prices should be down across the board. It is inflation that is propping those prices up. That has masked much of the inflation, which only can happen for so long. Eventually with those conditions I described above, prices will start rising dramatically.


[edit on 15-1-2010 by johnny2127]



posted on Jan, 15 2010 @ 04:25 PM
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Originally posted by DEEZNUTZ
As an outside observer, I find it funny that people still try to hang this collapse around Obama's neck. Thank 8 years of Neo-Con War spending and breaks for their buddies and a nice fleecing of the treasury. He's the backup QB brought in to throw the hail mary pass because that was all that was left to salvage the US and it was a massive gamble and appears to be failing. In his defense he wasn't left with any real choice. Bush & Cheney doomed him from the start.


Being from the outside, you might not know, but this has been an inevitability for the past 30+ years now.

Productivity and the economy has been rising while the wage has not, so credit was the gap filler. It worked for quite a long time, but there comes a point in time when the credit outpaces the ownership. Any hiccup and it comes down.

The same is true now, only the corrections must be bigger and bigger. The same thing happened to Bush and we continued via the US Housing Market scam.

Bush is only 1 link in the chain. Clinton, Bush 41, Reagan, Carter. They all screwed us.


On topic I think Schiff is pretty bang on. He's been right so far. The US dollar took a good beating last year and is almost at parity again with CDN$. It's hard to say how severely this will impact us. Our banks are in better shape but when our largest trading partner goes down it's going to hurt us.


Most other nations won't be as affected as everyone thinks. There are a lot of other people willing to buy resources and products previously allocated to US consumption.



posted on Jan, 16 2010 @ 01:04 AM
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reply to post by KrazyJethro
 


It's been happening since the end of WWII. I always use this analogy when describing the situation in the US.

It's like when someone is soo in debt that they're using 1 credit card to pay the minimum on the other and so on. They've already borrowed from everyone they know and have gotten payday loans and pawned everything they can and yet they still have 13 days to go till the next payday and round of payments that have been differed for so long that they'll be cutoff.

Then one day it all catches up to you. I was stupid enough to make the above mistakes along time ago and I'm still digging out but almost at the end. The US is in the same situation. Come tax time and revenues for the gov't are way down and the budget gap will explode and erode the little gains if you can call it that, that the markets and economy have made. This will cause a run on the dollar and no demand for US gov't debt instruments.

Investors around the world are just milking what they can as long as they can until the dollar tumbles and I believe once it starts it's going to sink like a rock. Everybody knows the US is insolvent. The world is just cashing in.

I hope it doesn't happen. Having our largest trading partner go down won't be good for Canada or the rest of the world but I fear it's inevitable.



posted on Jan, 16 2010 @ 04:35 AM
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reply to post by KrazyJethro
 


Exactly. The cycle has accelerated in the last 15 years but it began in the Carter years. I always viewed one of the turning points as the emergence of the Discover card, originally issued through Sears. No annual fee, usually a higher limit than the common issuers of the time such as Visa or Mastercard and hey, they have a cashback bonus that actually rewards you for using it.

Credit cards were once a privilege of the more well to do and to be used only for emergencies. You were approved because you had solid financial standing for an extended period of time. Credit loosened during the 80's and in the 90's it reached the point that a teenager could have a credit card regardless of the fact that they had no financial status. They could just ride the backs of their parents.

It blew up in the 90s with the advent of the internet and e-commerce. All of a sudden you had instant approval, all you had to do is fill out a form and you had instant approval. Maybe it was for $400, maybe it was $4,000 but there it was. Ask someone what their credit rating was in 1985 and they would give you a blank look. Today, many people live and die by it. When you get right down to it, it doesn't matter if it's a bank card, a merchant card, a mortgage or a home equity loan. People live and die by credit but basically, credit is money that you have to spend that you don't have.

Mostly in the last 15-20 years, credit has gone from a privilege to a lifestyle and that is why we're in the boat we're in. Mortgages, car loans and easy credit have become a lifestyle and living within one's means is a distant memory.

The consumerist society was truly fired up back in the 60's and it's been in full swing since the 80's. Production doesn't drive our economy these days, spending and consumption does. You can work 60 hours a week but your working doesn't affect the economy as much as your spending what you make does.



posted on Jan, 16 2010 @ 08:30 AM
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reply to post by Graybeard
 


The US economy is like a child's birthday party.

There are Balloon's everywhere , Once 1 pops, parties over



posted on Jan, 16 2010 @ 08:55 AM
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reply to post by DEEZNUTZ
 


Anyone who places the blame solely on Obama is a fool, as is anyone who places it on the prior administration. Maybe we can go back to FDR or W Wilson to find a starting point, but it's still irrelevant. The bottom line is that no one has sacked up and tried to fix the problem using sound logic. Instead each administration has taken it's own part in making the problem exponentially worse. Obama is no exception. As this crisis comes to a head the last thing we need to do is throw money at it.....as if covering a basketball sized zit on the back of an elephant with a bandaid will keep it from fermenting. We need to lance this boil and let the healing begin.



posted on Jan, 16 2010 @ 09:42 AM
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I may be naive in the ways of international commerce, so correct me if I'm wrong: If the dollar tanks, wouldn't that be incentive for Americans to buy American? We may have diminished buying power for food grown overseas, but for food grown, processed, and sold in America, wouldn't the value stay the same? After all, the farmer gets paid in the same dollar that the factory worker, grocery store clerk, and person buying the food do.

If I'm missing something, please correct me.



posted on Jan, 16 2010 @ 09:50 AM
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I believe this guy is on the right track. The sheeple are being fooled once again. Another economist that is saying more or less the same thing is Gerald Celente, he predicted the first collapse, and says that this year the commercial industry will take the biggest hit. we are far from out of the woods yet. Check out his site for yourselves.

www.trendsresearch.com...



posted on Jan, 16 2010 @ 10:18 AM
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reply to post by ziggy1706
 


I think Schiff is having a hard time pinpointing the collapse because he can't predict when the FED will stop propping up the dollar and let the inevitable collapse happen. I love watching his videos and try as they might the others on the panel just can't make a point that he can't refute or debunk in some way! I remember watching him before people even had an inkling of what was to come and they laughed at him, belittled him, but now when he speaks on air no one seems to be laughing!



posted on Jan, 16 2010 @ 10:27 AM
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reply to post by keenmachine
 


Exactly what you said, is true.

Schiff is basing his predictions on the facts as they are .

Government intervention changes the facts somewhat , so while things
are changed slightly, they aren't fixed , Long Term.



posted on Jan, 16 2010 @ 10:46 AM
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reply to post by Sean48
 


You are correct and I have to add that by printing more money and making more loans or "bailouts", keeping the interest rates low, etc, etc, making the "Quick Fix" which is as you said is no fix at all, they are only making "D-day" worse and probably more problematic than it would be if they simply threw their hands in the air, allowed the inevitable to happen and proposed a true, albeit, intricate solution.



posted on Jan, 16 2010 @ 11:14 AM
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reply to post by Sean48
 


I like hearing Schiff.
I've posted a few threads with his take on things. The one thing that annoys me though is that he rarely gives solid advise on what exactly is the best way to proceed. It's one thing to talk about whats wrong and another to give advise. Otherwise it's like a broken record.

U.S. Economy: Trade Gap Grows as Oil Prices Jump; Exports Climb

Spending by American companies and consumers will continue to push up imports, while a 12 percent drop in the dollar since early March and growing economies overseas mean U.S. sales abroad may also improve. China’s move to cool its economy by raising bank reserve requirements caused stocks to tumble worldwide.

“There’s continued strong export growth ahead,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “On the import side, it’s logical that if U.S. companies are no longer running down their inventories that they’re going to need to import more.”


We Don't Need More Debt

"Wide acceptance of an idea is not proof of its validity." -Dan Brown (The Lost Symbol)

I've decided to preface my first note of 2010 with a quote from the author of The Da Vinci Code. Dan Brown's latest thriller, The Lost Symbol, is set in Washington, D.C. How fitting.



posted on Jan, 16 2010 @ 11:45 AM
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Originally posted by LiquidLight
I may be naive in the ways of international commerce, so correct me if I'm wrong: If the dollar tanks, wouldn't that be incentive for Americans to buy American? We may have diminished buying power for food grown overseas, but for food grown, processed, and sold in America, wouldn't the value stay the same? After all, the farmer gets paid in the same dollar that the factory worker, grocery store clerk, and person buying the food do.

If I'm missing something, please correct me.


Here it is as simple as can be said.
We live in a global market.

Domestically, if a loaf of bread costs $20.00;
will you be happy making $10.00 per hour?



posted on Jan, 17 2010 @ 08:41 PM
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reply to post by Absum!
 


Of course we live in a global market, for now. But you're not understanding what I'm saying. If, for example, the value of the dollars decreases against the value of say the Euro, then that's incentive for Americans not to make transactions with countries that deal in Euros.



posted on Jan, 17 2010 @ 11:29 PM
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Originally posted by LiquidLight
reply to post by Absum!
 


Of course we live in a global market, for now. But you're not understanding what I'm saying. If, for example, the value of the dollars decreases against the value of say the Euro, then that's incentive for Americans not to make transactions with countries that deal in Euros.


Actually it reduces imports as you suspect, but it increases exports because their currency would be stronger. (US goods would appear cheap.)

Everything we import, which is almost all manufactured goods because the US manufactures so very little (NAFTA, and outsourcing) will cost more.

Yes, the local carpenter also has devalued dollars, but he won't sell you a chair for $100.00 USD when they will give him $300 EU.

Does that help?



posted on Jan, 17 2010 @ 11:46 PM
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reply to post by Toadmund
 


Hey genious if the U.S. dollar falls its not just the U.S. ecomony its the World ecomony that will collapse next.

What what you going to do when thier is no bread to even buy becuase all money will be useless before the New Amero is offered by the NWO.

Think about that idiot.



posted on Jan, 18 2010 @ 10:52 PM
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reply to post by Absum!
 


Very much so, thank you.



posted on Jan, 19 2010 @ 12:06 AM
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reply to post by silent thunder
 


good post, and i believe that when a nation reaches its peak it does not stay there very long. decline begins, speed unknown. the US has passed its peak.



posted on Jan, 19 2010 @ 12:38 AM
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Well, I see the prices rising already, I used to beable to take a 5 dollar bill to the store and bring home a loaf of bread and a gallon of milk. Now I have to make a choice bread or milk.

The last few months little changes happened that I asked the stores about that made me wonder. Why is it when I buy a "loaf" of bread it look as if its already been cut in half and your selling halfs as wholes for a higher price? -- that's the way we get it

Any way about the buying stock, I can see why he would say buy over seas, because US is going down but ( I didn't go to business school ), who many people actually watch and follow the tips? from tv shows?

Now lets say quite a few. We have loads of people buying up Foreign stock because US is going to go down hard and heavy. Wouldn't that help push it there?

If people stop buying stock in a company wouldn't the company layoff/fire people to make up for the loss?

When the company I was with stocks where well over 45 a share we had 3 shifts many employees, even sold our "stuff" over seas, when the stocks hit 30 we went to 2 shifts and well right now we don't exist anymore. Yes the product wasn't selling as much as it used to but before the tumbling started it was when the stocks dropped was the first of the big layoffs.

Now when I hear this Its good info but it makes me wonder. Would the collapse/fall/bad,bad times happen sooner if there is no investment in our own?

Wouldn't investing in our own manufacturing companies help them push products to sell over seas?

Like I said I didn't go to school for that stuff, just a question.




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