Volcano watch 2010

reply to post by alysha.angel


Trashed it - Am had already done it

Oh My, my, my -

Mount Merapi has broken its own record after erupting nonstop for more than 24 hours, and geologists are now calling this episode the mountain’s worst since the 1870s.

After erupting and spewing heat clouds since Wednesday morning, the mountain unleashed its most extreme volcanic activity yet on Thursday, sending ash seven kilometers into the air.

Source and full story

Time to relocate if your living in Indonesia.

And then - there is This

Please people - always be prepared for anything

reply to post by Anmarie96




Brilliant map of the volcanoes in Indonesia



Have not blown this one up full yet but it looks like the area being affected by the volcano.

reply to post by Anmarie96


So I'm confused. Based on that article, they (officials) are trying to make it sound as if this is really no big deal, kinda business as usuall. That the ones on alert are pretty much always on alert and the merapi eruption is something they expect.

They even commented that the alerts/erruptions are not connected to each other.

So which is it? Is there really only one (possibly) historic eruption happening and everything else is just hype due to all the media coverage, OR: Is there something happening whithin the plates that are causing a massive uplift/eruptive state of multiple volcanos all at the same time and we need to be wary/worried of what is yet to come???

reply to post by westcoast


First - Puterman - I can not open your links - don't know if it is on your end or my end.

Westcoast - you need to re-read the second article and listen to what is really being said. There is a major event happening. They are trying not to cause panic - pick it apart as you would are report from the USGS on Yellowstone. They are saying:

"Panic will not help, but a good plan to anticipate the disaster will.”

"Sutopo said that due to the heightened alerts, the agency has made contingency plans to anticipate eruptions." /

reply to post by Anmarie96


If you are referring to the images they are both working fine - just tried them. That is a busy site though so they can be slow.

I am getting curious about this report for Semeru. Notice that the link Alysha provided mentioned a Blackberry. Now look at this:

The reports come from the Javanese Kompas newspaper and were apparently sent in by Blackberry from an observer on the spot.

Source

But this refers to 24the May! Coincidence or fake report today.

Edit: I think it is fake. This is the facebook page for Semeru Activity and that would be alive if it was happening but it is pretty much inactive at present.

reply to post by westcoast


1872 merapi had an VEI 4..

Start Date: 1872 Apr 15 Stop Date: 1872 Apr 21
Dating Technique: Historical Records

Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI): 4

Tephra Volume: 3.3 x 108 m3
Eruptive Characteristics:
Central vent eruption
Explosive eruption
Pyroclastic flow(s)
Fatalities
Damage (land, property, etc.)
Evacuation

www.volcano.si.edu...

reply to post by PuterMan


I will try the links again -

Maybe old or false report according to This the last change in activity was in March and still maintains a level 2.

reply to post by PuterMan


Sweet Maps PM I am hearing now the evacuation zone is up to 15km. I am thinking before it's done they may want to raise that.

This is a post on Eruptions by Jon Friman

After thinking hard and long, also a long line of watching. I finally figured out what this did remind me of.

This did remind me of what did happen before Mount Pinatubo did go all boom with a massive explosion in the year 1991. I am not going to say that this is going to be the same. But I am going to say that Merapi is heading the same direction and fast.

More information, pubs.usgs.gov...

Source: bigthink.com...

Edit to say: Don't knock the English. This man is Icelandic and knows his stuff.

reply to post by Anmarie96


They have.

It is now 20km and they may have to extend it beyond that.

Mount Merapi Entering an even worse stage yet...... kills 6 people today Nov 4th 2010.
www.msnbc.msn.com...

oh my - what's going on now??

Sezka Fregoso on November 4, 2010, 3:21 PM
something weird is..now no sound..merapi no sound..and huh journalist reporter in TV please dont reporting too much over about description of condition,now alot accident in the street bcoz they are panic.

Source

Here's this PM - Mount Semeru in Lumajang, East Java, has been almost continuously active since 1967 and on Thursday morning it spewed smoke 100 meters into the air. In Sikka, East Nusa Tenggara, authorities have warned of increased activity at Mount Egon.


[Source - It's not official but all I could find - so far

Things are going from bad to worse in Indonesia

Indonesian to English translation
Volcanic activity through the middle of the night increased. Radius safe zone be extended to beyond 20 kilometers. This condition is thought to boost the deepest magma could trigger a devastating explosion.

"This is the third scenario that is not my passion. It can make a large explosive because the magma mendorogn now is the deepest," said Head of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG) Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Doctor Surono, on Reuters, Friday, November 5, 2010 early days.

According to Surono, due to magma deepest impulse of the mountain which lies on the border of Central Java-Yogyakarta, there is vibration on an ongoing basis. Vibrations arise continues to expand.

Thus, PVMBG issued an appeal for displaced backwards from the point of maximum danger limit of 20 kilometers. This is an extension of the second radius of danger after the initial set of 10 and 15 kilometers from the peak of Merapi.

Surono added, the eruption that occurred up to this moment is a series of eruptions since Wednesday, November 3, 2010 at around 11 noon. "The eruption has not stopped, the stronger the vibration. A major eruption could happen," said French doctoral graduates of this volcano.

Increased activity of Merapi occurred before midnight or early morning Friday, November 5, 2010. Increased activity of Merapi is marked with a thunderous roar that did not stop.

Source

For those people seeking news/video of what's going on Indonesia here is link with sources.
interceder.net...

reply to post by Anmarie96


This just keeps getting worse. The potential is scary and what makes it even more intense for those of us that don't live in that area are all the other volcanos surrounding it. Is this an isolated event or a precurser?

Okay you guys...please don't laugh at me. I have taken a jab at drawing (on my comp) my thoughts on what MAY be happening in Indonesia.

I have been thinking this over for a while now, turning it around in my head trying to get a grasp on what could be a possible explanation for what has been going on.

I think we can all agree that TOBA is a structure unlike none other (or nearly) in the world. I don't see how anyone can profess to know what is really happening there. It bothers me to hear some scientists say that the volcanos don't interact with each other and do not affect each other. How can they even think that? It doesn't make any sense.

This is what I think: That the reason the quakes are affecting the volcanos is because they are all part of the interlocked plates and possibly subsequent fractures that could literally run all over under that continent. SO..how are the volcanos connected? Well, again it makes sense to me that TOBA could be 'fed' by a plume such as the one suspected at Yellowstone. Also, just like Yellowstone, that PLUME gets moved and disturbed over the migration of the plates during the course of the past 75,000 years. (since it's last eruption).

SO...what if that WHOLE volcanic range is fed by one massive PLUME that has migrated and fractured...now that the plates are once again moving, these large quakes are moving these fractures further, allowing fresh magma to again travel up to the surface?

Here is my diagram explaining what I think...again, apologies for the artwork!!!

reply to post by westcoast


I like the idea, but if you subscribe to plate tectonics then I don't think that this would work too well as you have portrayed it. The presence of a massive singular plume right on the plate boundary where subduction is believed to take place could be a logistical nightmare for the plume. or the descending plate, or both.

I believe it is generally accepted in geological circles that mantle plumes feed super-volcanoes like Yellowstone and plate boundaries feed super-volcanoes like Toba. This is of course a very good reason for not believing them! It all seems a little too convenient to have these two different types. Why should the feed for a volcano at the plate boundary not indeed be a plume, but then alternatively if you don't subscribe to the idea of a plume - and some geologists don't - what are you left with?

Actually there does not seem to be too much of a problem here if you examine the accepted model of subduction.



So what do we have here? We have an elongated plume do we not? An area, or rather a line of magma feeds along the edge of the subducting plate that are connected to the mantle. This sounds very like what you describe, the only difference being that the source is elongated - spread along the boundary. Let's take a look at another example that shows this even more clearly.



You definitely see the connection to the mantle here - don't forget that we are talking about subduction zones that descend to 600km or more - just as deep as Yellowstone's plume connection if it exists. I won't get into the depths of the problems that I personally see with some of this because it is something I am still researching and may become a part of the PuterMan's Unified Theory Of Stuff. (Ramblings of a dyslexic President?)

I suppose what I am saying is that you don't actually need your singular large plume since the mantle connection is already supplied by the subduction theory. If that is the case then it is pretty obvious that anything occurring along the subduction zone is connected to the mantle and by inference to a continuous strip of mantle feeding the volcanoes with magma which also contains lithosphere melt from the seabed. Thus they are all connected. Yup!

Toba is probably not in the equation if this bit of info I dug up is correct.

We now believe that all the Toba tephra occurrences across peninsular India belong to the 71ka eruption (Westgate et al. 1998). This conclusion is based on ash fingerprinting using trace element geochemistry. Earlier
eruptions from Toba (Oldest Toba Tephra: ~840ka; Middle Toba Tephra: ~500ka) may have left traces across India and these need to be sought and dated.

Source (PDF)

These would on pure statistics (which nature does ignore) would make Toba not due for up to 400,000 years.

I dont know if this has been posted but Merapi has blown again
www.abc.net.au...

reply to post by 12voltz


Thank you 12voltz

scary

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