Britain facing one of the coldest winters in 100 years, experts predict

reply to post by Haydn_17


Quite simlpy global warming can have effects that cause cold spots throughout the globe. For example the UK is only as warm as it is because of the gulf stream. If this current were disrupted due to melting of freshwater then the UK would become colder.

To cause a rise in global temperature, and by that i mean an increase that causes tropical forest across the earth you would need a massive rise in temperature, not the simple 1 or 2 degrees celcius that has been forecasted.

This is my problem with the global warming movement. In the past temperatures have been higher than they are now and yet here we are, so very concerned at a minor rise that lacks behind the previosu temperatures.

Still your initial view that a cold snap in a small locality completely negates all of the scientific evidence that points towards warming is rather flawed.

I'm another one of the older heads who remembers cold, white winters from my youth and an awful lot of moaning, even back then, that we didn't get white Christmases "like what we used to."

I don't know what the fuss is about. Inside the M25 it's a lovely crisp day. No white stuff, just clear skies and bitter expressions (London standard).

I'm looking forward to a proper winter for a change...

Originally posted by Nirgal
I'm another one of the older heads who remembers cold, white winters from my youth and an awful lot of moaning, even back then, that we didn't get white Christmases "like what we used to."

I don't know what the fuss is about. Inside the M25 it's a lovely crisp day. No white stuff, just clear skies and bitter expressions (London standard).

I'm looking forward to a proper winter for a change...

I agree, here in Oslo right now, we have close to 15 deg.minus and we have snow the second winter in a row.
Before that, we havent had snow or cold at all, it is a very long time ago I actually had to use a spade to get my car out from the snow.

Last Xmas we had snow, and in Jan Feb of 2008, we got an surprise attack of snow and cold, new years eve 2007, it was raining,I remember standing out with umbrellas on NewYears, that is not every year let me tell you ! ..

it seems to me that the UK met office needs some radical over-hauling.

their 'miscalculation' with regard to the severity of the winter weather has not been without its ramifications after all.

the councils of our country make their preparations for 'weather events' based on recommendations by the met office..which is why we are always ill prepared when mother nature lets loose.

so once again, the met office advises that we shall have a mild winter, the councils fail to ensure sufficient stockpiling of salt/grit for gritters that (it seems) weren't up to the task in any case.
travel misery ensues, pedestrian casualties etc.
could this have been stopped if we had been better prepared? probably not stopped, but greatly alleviated.

to my mind, this AGW agenda is crossing the line from benign to malignant. just what model of forecast are the met office using? maybe if they could just remove their 'warmest' glasses long enough to be of actual use to the british tax-payer..if not, why are they being funded by the public purse?

Originally posted by Nirgal
. Inside the M25 it's a lovely crisp day. No white stuff, just clear skies and bitter expressions (London standard).

I'm looking forward to a proper winter for a change...

There is a bit of a difference between a white christmas and basically just lots of ice....so much so that the buses aren't even running! I had a bitter expression that day. So far it's just been a bit of snow, followed by rain, followed by sheet ice everywhere. Inside the M25 has been a bit of nightmare recently !

Incredible that in this country we don't even have the resources to salt the roads and everything turns to chaos from a few hours of snow!

This is pretty interesting: History of British winters

Originally posted by auraura
it seems to me that the UK met office needs some radical over-hauling.

their 'miscalculation' with regard to the severity of the winter weather has not been without its ramifications after all.

No no they don't need overhauling don't you dare! I have used them to predict the weather every single year. Basically when they say it is cold i strap on a t-shirt and a pair of shorts, when they say it'll be warm i pack several gas heaters, food, candles and a thermos. Don't you dare destroy such an accurate institution!

Originally posted by auraura
the councils of our country make their preparations for 'weather events' based on recommendations by the met office..which is why we are always ill prepared when mother nature lets loose.

Yeah thing is when the MET office says it'll be cold the councils still cannot prepare. I think it is time we learnt from countries that deal with real cold every single year. Why we don't hire advisors from these countries or simply use our diplomatic relations i am not sure.

Originally posted by auraura
to my mind, this AGW agenda is crossing the line from benign to malignant. just what model of forecast are the met office using? maybe if they could just remove their 'warmest' glasses long enough to be of actual use to the british tax-payer..if not, why are they being funded by the public purse?

Not lets be fair. Weather prediction is still more an art then a science (although plenty of science is involved). Trying to make long range forecasts is incredibly difficult, it involves all sorts of variables and in the end chaos theory seems to wreak it all.

reply to post by Rising Against


Ahh that's alright.

I'd much rather be too cold than too hot.

At least it's quite easy to get warm if too cold, whereas it's quite hard to get cool if it's too hot.

We're world renown for our crappy weather. It's one of our 'small talking' points.

Plus, think of all the revenue from those winter sports, and whale watchers!

BTW, how much does a good nick, low mileage skidoo go for these days?

Well the fact is that bit in the climategate emails that said 'we can't account for the decline' referred to the simple fact that the last 8 years or so global temp. has been going down, not up.
Might be starting that ice age a little early.

It's great isn't it. It's like a subtle helping hand from Mother Nature in our fight against the new world order. Just when it's most needed.

To the people who are saying that the gulf stream is moving downwards so that britain gets colder- its not just britain who have had these snow storms, I remember seeing on the news a couple of weeks ago on how schools in parts of spain were closed down due to heavy snow, this has affected a lot of europe. But also there are parts of america which had record breaking snow storms too. I remember seeing snow much worse than this when I was a kid. We would get bad snow storms every year but for the past couple of decades winters have become milder until the past couple of years. It just seems like a fluctuation of an ever changing climate to me. I also remember hearing these so called GW experts on the news saying that britain would get milder winters not too long ago when winters were seeming to get milder, it just seems like they have a MMGW theory for whatever happens in the climate so its a win win situation.

[edit on 3-1-2010 by SpaceMonkeys]

Originally posted by Deny Arrogance
So the gulf stream *might* be "pushed south" by global warming, which would mean that as the planet heats up, Britain, paradoxically, could actually get much colder.

But the gulf stream has not moved yet and Britain is freezing NOW?

Very good point!

reply to post by minkey53

I can only speak for the Portuguese meteorology institute, and their 3 days predictions are good, at least for the area where I live.

The UK cold snap is due to the wind coming from the North East, when usually it comes from the South West.

This change happened right after the Norway Spiral incident.

Any connection ?

Originally posted by mirageofdeceit

PS: even with the coldest winter in 100 years or more, the average temperature for the year may be above the usual average.

Well, whether it is warming or cooling, surely you would not expect to see record highs and lows at the same time?

Why not?

One climate characteristic that changes from place to place is the temperature range. Where I live, for example, we don't have temperatures lower than 0º C on the winter or higher than 42º C during summer, while some 150 kilometres away they have temperatures from -5º C to 47º C.

Some places, like Madeira, in the middle of the Atlantic ocean, have a very short temperature range, maybe from a minimum 5º C to a maximum of 30º C.

In other words, forget the fact the highs are getting higher and instead look at the fact the temperature differential is increasing.

We should not forget anything, we should look at all that is happening, and I think that's the biggest mistake some people have been making.

From what I have noticed these last two years here in Portugal, we haven't got the highs higher than normal, but the hot, dry weather lasted for much longer than usual.

Then, when the winter comes, we get a short period of very cold weather, but then we return to higher temperatures, and it stays that way the rest of the winter.

That cold weather that was responsible for the closing of schools in Spain also affected Portugal, we had temperatures near 0º C where I live (I have a thermometer just outside my bedroom window ), but on the next weak we had temperatures as high as 19º C, along with thunder storms.

Which is worse (summer high/winter low)? +10/-5 or +30/-30?

Why?

It depends on the values and on the duration of the cold/hot period.

Originally posted by earthtone So far it's just been a bit of snow, followed by rain, followed by sheet ice everywhere. Inside the M25 has been a bit of nightmare recently !

It has? I guess my gaffer whinging that he had to ditch the car and walk 7 miles home and take the day off is a different type of nightmare to my usual 20 mile round trip on a bicycle.

I guess it depends on your attitude, I've encountered very few problems...

Ok chaps and chappettes....

Firstly, the Met office weather is incredibaly accurate for the immediate few days. Long range forcasting alsways involves alot of variables and is based on a probablity, not an exact prediction. Generally, the Met office gets it right more often than it gets it wrong...

Secondly, for those saying our country should learn from others, well that is a good point, but I must also point out that the Scottish Highlands has snow almost every year. They have as many gritters and plows in the Highlands as the entire of the South of England, it's all to do with priorities. Southern England gets very little snow, not enough to warrant spending millions of taxpayers cash buying the gear needed to ensure a regular operation just for a couple of days worth of snow.

Even countries that have regular snow still find it hard. Russia has issues, China has issues today in fact. Germany and Poland both suffered at the hands of the recent cold snap too and they do snow regularly.

Oh, for those who doubt the GW/Climate/Gulf Stream change camp, just bear in mind we are at the same latitude as Newfoundland. Look at their winter/summer cycle, then look at ours. The same applies to much of Northern and Central Europe. Without the Gulf stream, it get's nippy. See the last Ice Age and the extent of the ice cover and temperatures.

In fact, whether you believe in man made GW or not, the cause of the last big freeze in Northern Europe during the last Ice Age was the shutting down of the Atlantic conveyor.

Once this started back up again, temperatures went up and Europe thawed. Whichever way you cut it, the Gulf stream keeps us warm and recently, a slowing in the flow of water in the GS has been recorded. Whether this is due to man or not is quite irrelevant, to be honest. This may have something to do with the increased chance of Northern winds prevailing instead of warm southerly ones, hence the cold.

I for one am sick to the back teeth of the cold and snow if it wasnt for COD Modern Warfare I would have severe cabin fever. I go back to work on Tuesday and am dreading it as people in Edinburgh struggle to drive in slight rain, when snow if lying on the road the idiots slow to a snails pace.

Day 15 in Southern Scotland and we've had another 10cm of snow overnight.

It's getting a bit tiresome because the BBC/Met Office forecasts are so unreliable, you can't plan for anything.

Was woken up just after 5am, the most terrific bang outside. The council snow plough had driven straight into a road hump outside my house. The driver was a bit shaken up but otherwise OK.

There's only one road into our village & unfortunately it goes straight up a steep hill. It's proving difficult to navigate, even in my Volvo with the traction control on, although I've got up that hill eventually when others have failed. It's been hugely entertaining watching BMW & Mercedes owners sliding all over the place in their expensive cars (I'm actually quite shocked to see how badly rear wheel drive cars have been faring).

Back to work on Tuesday *sigh*

Here's hoping the snow continues and I'm unable to get in

Originally posted by stumason
Ok chaps and chappettes....

Firstly, the Met office weather is incredibaly accurate for the immediate few days. Long range forcasting alsways involves alot of variables and is based on a probablity, not an exact prediction. Generally, the Met office gets it right more often than it gets it wrong...

You know i made a few jokes and took the mic but you are quite correct. The met office makes incredibly accurate short range predictions and we should be thankful for them. As for long range forecasts well as i mentioned earlier, chaos theory comes into effect and it is very hard to be right. Still the met office, as you say is right more often than not. Actually i would say that people need to stop being so angry when they are wrong. How many times do we see people in their cars, freezing and annoyed. Well for gods sake it's winter, have they never heard of an emergency kit? I kept one packed every year, regardless of what the MET office predicted.

Originally posted by stumason
Secondly, for those saying our country should learn from others, well that is a good point, but I must also point out that the Scottish Highlands has snow almost every year. They have as many gritters and plows in the Highlands as the entire of the South of England, it's all to do with priorities. Southern England gets very little snow, not enough to warrant spending millions of taxpayers cash buying the gear needed to ensure a regular operation just for a couple of days worth of snow.

Even countries that have regular snow still find it hard. Russia has issues, China has issues today in fact. Germany and Poland both suffered at the hands of the recent cold snap too and they do snow regularly.

The highlands as you say suffer snowfall pretty much every year. I can't remember a year they didn't. However we really could/should learn from other countries in how to deal with snow. This doesn't just mean gritters though, we need to teach drivers how to deal with snow. An example is that when i walk two streets away i see drivers using the same speed in summer and winter despite there being a blind turn at the bottom of the hill. Even when there is thick ice they just go for it. They have no clue in how to use gears, or they just don't care.

Originally posted by stumason
Oh, for those who doubt the GW/Climate/Gulf Stream change camp, just bear in mind we are at the same latitude as Newfoundland. Look at their winter/summer cycle, then look at ours. The same applies to much of Northern and Central Europe. Without the Gulf stream, it get's nippy. See the last Ice Age and the extent of the ice cover and temperatures.

Anyone who denies the effect of the gulf stream is not worthy of attention. It's rude to say that but it is true.

Oh and please everyone should have a basic kit. Water, food that can be eaten dry, a heater, chemical warmers, space blanket etc. This is basic stuff people.