Quake Watch 2010

Good morning folks... (well, it's not good for me - still ill)

Activity appears to be back to more "normal" levels - just the volcanoes to watch out for now, eh?

Update from GeoNet on the recent activity around Gisborne area:

www.geonet.org.nz...

[edit on 14-4-2010 by MoorfNZ]

reply to post by MoorfNZ


Good Morning - you should know better than to say "normal" and with that being said - expect one soon. Iceland - volcanoes - you got it. Let us just home that Berkeleygal's video that I was finally able to watch does not tie in with you and your swarm! - You know the drill for preparations -

reply to post by Anmarie96

You know the drill for preparations -

Yep - find camera, find solar lappy battery charger, find high spot, sit, watch, sip Whisky and smoke Malboro Lights... and WATCH....

Oh yeah - and some water...

Seriously, we get TV ads all the time telling us to be prepared - quite frankly, where I live in rural South Island all I need is a shotgun - plenty of food in local fields and rivers

[edit on 14-4-2010 by MoorfNZ]

reply to post by MoorfNZ


LOL - I hear you all the way - my friend Jim - told you I would be good on the arc - I have the shot gun among others - don't forget the fishing pole and tackle.

Puterman - is the average mag of Baja/Southern Cali quakes rising again? Appears to be just from following on USGS... - frequency definitely lowered.. but mag?

reply to post by MoorfNZ


I was noticing that today and wondering if they are building due to mags. increasing. Thinking the might be foreshocks of somthing coming.

And just saw we are having a solar storm.
www.solarcycle24.com...


[edit on 14-4-2010 by alexgia]

Sorry sorry - - didn't have time to read the last few pages. I'm granny nanny to a 2 year old - exhausted and time limited.

Is there discussion of a predicted quake in SOCA? I am an originally born and bread Angelino - - so been hearing the BIG ONE all my life.

But - - with recent activity - - its seeming more plausible. Currently in Redondo Beach.

Whatyasay?

Magnitude 4.9 VANUATU

Date-Time

* Wednesday, April 14, 2010 at 23:54:17 UTC
* Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 10:54:17 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 13.883°S, 166.630°E
Depth 73.5 km (45.7 miles)
Region VANUATU

Distances 190 km (120 miles) NNW of Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
360 km (225 miles) SSE of Lata, Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Isl.
465 km (290 miles) NNW of PORT-VILA, Efate, Vanuatu
2070 km (1280 miles) NE of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia

Magnitude 3.2
Date-Time

* Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 06:35:20 UTC
* Wednesday, April 14, 2010 at 11:35:20 PM at epicenter

Location 32.673°N, 115.872°W
Depth 6.6 km (4.1 miles)
Region SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances

* 14 km (9 miles) ESE (122°) from Ocotillo, CA
* 22 km (13 miles) SW (232°) from Seeley, CA
* 30 km (19 miles) ENE (78°) from Jacumba Hot Springs, CA
* 32 km (20 miles) WSW (247°) from El Centro, CA
* 109 km (68 miles) E (81°) from Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 0.4 km (0.2 miles); depth +/- 1.2 km (0.7 miles)
Parameters Nph=063, Dmin=6 km, Rmss=0.35 sec, Gp=137°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=1
Source

* California Integrated Seismic Net:
* USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR

Event ID ci10611741

New swarm coming ?

European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre

something else to watch

www.emsc-csem.org...

2010-04-15 01:47:37.2 43.49 N 12.44 E 2 ML 3.7 CENTRAL ITALY
2010-04-15 01:32:59.5 39.79 N 26.11 E 2 ML 3.0 NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN TURKEY
2010-04-15 00:55:59.5 40.22 N 76.33 E 60 mb 4.7 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA

Magnitude 3.7 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 2010 April 15 08:36:10 UTC


Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 08:36:10 UTC
Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 01:36:10 AM at epicenter
Location
40.434°N, 125.178°W
Depth
5 km (3.1 miles) (poorly constrained)
Region
OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances
77 km (48 miles) W (279°) from Petrolia, CA
79 km (49 miles) WSW (258°) from Ferndale, CA
89 km (55 miles) W (259°) from Fortuna, CA
94 km (59 miles) WSW (246°) from Eureka, CA
380 km (236 miles) NW (322°) from San Francisco City Hall, CA
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 6.4 km (4.0 miles); depth +/- 49.3 km (30.6 miles)
Parameters
Nph=115, Dmin=71 km, Rmss=1.81 sec, Gp=234°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=2
Source
California Integrated Seismic Net:
USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR
Event ID
nc71382461

[edit on 15-4-2010 by berkeleygal]

Magnitude 3.1 - SOUTHERN QUEBEC, CANADA 2010 April 15 07:57:20 UTC

Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 07:57:20 UTC
Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 03:57:20 AM at epicenter
Location
45.512°N, 72.493°W
Depth
0.2 km (~0.1 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, CANADA
Distances
22 km (14 miles) ENE (58°) from Granby, Québec, Canada
39 km (24 miles) ESE (110°) from Saint-Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada
42 km (26 miles) S (180°) from Drummondville, Québec, Canada
80 km (50 miles) E (91°) from Longueuil, Québec, Canada
84 km (52 miles) E (90°) from Montréal, Québec, Canada
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 1.1 km (0.7 miles); depth +/- 2.1 km (1.3 miles)
Parameters
NST= 8, Nph= 12, Dmin=29 km, Rmss=0.28 sec, Gp=122°,
M-type="Nuttli" surface wave magnitude (mbLg), Version=a
Source
New England Seismic Network (NESN):
Weston Observatory of Boston College
Event ID
ne00001171

reply to post by MoorfNZ


The moving average of 200 quakes would suggest that it is not, and the overall exponential and log trends are downwards.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/d2bc6c19a83a.png[/atsimg]

Cumulative to midnight 14thApril



reply to post by Annee


The straight answer to your question is no, there has been no discussion of that specifically. The alternative answer is of course that it will happen sometime (the big one) but in my opinion not yet. I think we would need to see increase activity further up the San Andreas before getting too concerned.

[edit on 15/4/2010 by PuterMan]

Magnitude 4.8
Date-Time

* Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 10:20:21 UTC
* Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 03:20:21 AM at epicenter

Location 31.866°N, 115.067°W
Depth 6.9 km (4.3 miles) (poorly constrained)
Region BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
Distances

* 47 km (29 miles) S (175°) from Guadalupe Victoria, Baja California, Mexico
* 72 km (45 miles) SSW (202°) from San Luis Río Colorado, Sonora, Mexico
* 76 km (47 miles) SSW (202°) from San Luis, AZ
* 198 km (123 miles) ESE (111°) from Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 10.4 km (6.5 miles); depth +/- 35.9 km (22.3 miles)
Parameters Nph= 13, Dmin=90 km, Rmss=0.46 sec, Gp=281°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=2
Source

* California Integrated Seismic Net:
* USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR

Event ID ci10612285

This quake is much further south of the main bunch that the bulk of the quakes in the swarm, and a reasonable size.

What should we be posting?

I have been looking the amount of quakes that we post and am wondering if we should really be posting ANY quakes that are unlikely to have been felt, say under 4.0, unless there is some particular strange significance about the event.

My personal feeling on what we should be posting and how we should deal with things is as follows. You are of course completely at liberty to ignore me and tell me to get lost!

• No quakes under 4.0 need to be posted unless really significant
  
• Quakes between 4.0 and 4.9 should be posted if they are in an area of significance, for example right under a geothermal station or a nuclear site, or right on a known fault in tension. A stray 4.0 to 4.9 in an isolated area is not really of significance.
  
• 5.0 to 5.9 Yes post. It would be useful if we could indicate our feelings about why it is significant.
  
• 6.0 upwards, post of course and consider if the event warrants it's own thread. This will probably only be the case if there is significant damage or loss of life or the quake has affected a significant structure - bridge, dam, your house etc.
  

I mention creating a thread because it will happen anyway so you can bet you may well have been beaten to it!

[edit on 15/4/2010 by PuterMan]

reply to post by PuterMan


Spot on Puterman

Was thinking exactly the same myself but wasn't sure whether to post it or not!!

At the same time - if someone feels a quake is significant (say it's on their doorstep or they felt it or they have a question about it) and it's not within the posting boundaries, I don't think they should be jumped on for posting it.

Update from GeoNet re rash of quakes near Gisborne, North Island.

In the 24 hour period from 10 am on Tuesday, 13 April to Wednesday, 14 April six "felt" earthquakes with magnitudes between 4.0 and 4.5 occurred just off the coast of the Tolaga Bay area along with a number of smaller earthquakes. Earthquakes of this size in this area are not uncommon but it is unusual to have a large number of them in a short time span. These earthquakes have been occurring in the same area as a region of slow-slip which has been taking place in several episodes over the last couple of months. During slow-slip events an area on the interface between the Pacific and Australian tectonic plates that is normally locked is temporarily released, allowing the overlying crust to move back eastwards at rates of a few millimetres per day. It is likely that the earthquakes and the slow-slip event are related but exactly how is not yet clear.

More here:

article: Apr 14 2010 - A busy night of earthquakes for the Gisborne region

www.geonet.org.nz...

reply to post by MoorfNZ


Definitely. Actually no one should be jumped on! Just advised politely.

We don't want to start any wars!

You next post is a good way to do it. Redirection.

[edit on 15/4/2010 by PuterMan]

Here is a link put out yesterday by the USGS stating the Quake activity of this year is normal. I of course DO NOT agree. While the numbers match up on a yearly basis, They fail to mention the fact that these 4 of these larger quakes occurred within a 10 days time period.
Significant Earthquakes
M 6.9 Southern Qinghai, China April 13, 2010 23:49:37 UTC
M 6.8 Solomon Islands April 11, 2010 09:40:29 UTC
M 7.7 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia April 6, 2010 22:15:02 UTC
M 7.2 Baja California, Mexico April 4, 2010 22:40:40 UTC

Is it just me, or has it been unusually quiet all over the globe today?
Shouldn't we be seeing some aftershock activity in China? Does this seem strange to anyone else?

[edit on 15-4-2010 by Cherryontop]

reply to post by Cherryontop


ssshhhhh - Yes - it appears that things have been going in waves of late - really quiet - then - - and then -- all over the place. I am beginning to see a pattern - one that I don't really like.

Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 13:40:59 UTC
Friday, April 16, 2010 at 01:40:59 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 31.206°S, 177.862°W
Depth 42.2 km (26.2 miles)
Region KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
Distances 100 km (65 miles) ENE of L'Esperance Rock, Kermadec Islands
215 km (135 miles) S of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands
930 km (570 miles) NE of Auckland, New Zealand
1305 km (810 miles) NNE of WELLINGTON, New Zealand

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 18.7 km (11.6 miles); depth +/- 21.7 km (13.5 miles)
Parameters NST= 25, Nph= 25, Dmin=217.2 km, Rmss=1.4 sec, Gp=133°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)


Event ID us2010vcbv


[edit on 15-4-2010 by Anmarie96]