Iran , Revolution or bombing , what will happen first ?

We all know trouble is brewing in Iran on all possible fronts . Not only is Iran facing a possible revolt from its own people , Iran is also facing potential bombing raids from Israel & or the U.S .

My question is , which will happen first ?

If Iran is bombed by Israel or the U.S then we may see the current level of discontent now found in its people turn to a hatred of the west and a growing support of its own government . Something very similar happened back in the 80's when Iran found its self attacked by Iraq .

Could this desire to quell what seems to be a revolution in the works be pushing Iran to provoke , in some fashion , an attack from the west as a means to create support on the home front ?

Either way it seems a safe bet to say , we shall see . As each passing day seems to be bringing Iran closer to one or the other .

Originally posted by Max_TO



Could this desire to quell what seems to be a revolution in the works be pushing Iran to provoke , in some fashion , an attack from the west as a means to create support on the home front ?

Your saying to avoid discontent at home, they are going to instigate

a war?

I would try avenues a little less harsher I think

reply to post by Sean48


Actually I said bombing runs .

And if it were my choice , I would chose a few bombing runs as a posed to revolt and a new government , if I was the current government that is .

If western powers attack Iran, Especially if Israel is involved, it'll unite Iranians like nothing else. I think younger Iranians want to revolt, but not if they feel the entire world is against them. It's a fine line.

reply to post by Blackmarketeer


Agreed , and assuming Iran defends it's self against any such attack there support will grow even greater . They will also be able to claim victory to there people , even if they lose there Nuclear plants .

i think provoking the west to attack them and uniting the iranians is very pluasible... it might explain the fakka oil well crisis goin on...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

i wonder, who bombed hamas in lebanon the other day... in hezbollah territory no less...

Wow I'm shocked, a thread where the Iranians are actually doing something themselves Very likely that the grand poomba is trying to force the west's hand as a way to regain the peoples support. Nothing pulls folks together faster than a common enemy!

What kinda odds you puting out, any handicaps?

If its an even money bet, I'll put 50 bucks of my christmas money on bombing first.

If I'm right I'll at least have 100 to bribe St. Peter with, or pay the boatman to cross the River Styx.

reply to post by Max_TO


For Israel to justify the inevitable loss of life it would suffer as a consequence of attacking Iran ,they would have to disable a substantial percentage of Iranian Nuclear installations .
Several of these fortified installations are located in or close to, large population centres .

Once Iranians witness twisted bodies being pulled from the rubble , domestic issues will be `parked` to deal with the defence of the homeland ...... and the once harsh sounding rhetoric of hawks like Ahmadinajad, will seem appropriate maybe even justified in their eyes.


The old adage " Never interupt your enemy , when they are making a mistake " springs to mind .

Originally posted by UmbraSumus



The old adage " Never interupt your enemy , when they are making a mistake " springs to mind .

I love that

well said

and i agree , let them sort out their own problems

reply to post by UmbraSumus


Agreed

Do you think that this could be one of the reasons that there hasn't been any bombing by the west yet ?

Originally posted by Max_TO
reply to post by UmbraSumus

 

Agreed

Do you think that this could be one of the reasons that there hasn't been any bombing by the west yet ?

It is surely a major factor , but such a ` wait and see ` approach has a limited time-frame . Meanwhile every possible assistance logistically and financially will be given to any groups capable of toppling the regime, such as the Jundallah group .I don`t see Obama shifting too radically from Bush`s M.O in this regard, much as the Predator drone strikes continued, so too will the covert black op`s to destabilise Iran.



[edit on 27-12-2009 by UmbraSumus]

Any direct strike by the U.S. has the possibility of opening a 3-front war and could create military chaos. There are obviously contingency plans for this scenario and the military is prepared but what would be on the minds of citizens here and abroad.

Who would benefit from direct U.S. action, including our support Israel? The first direct and immediate consequence would affect the market. I'm referring to conventional weapons because if someone popped a nuke in anger worldwide markets would collapse (not too subtle). So if we can reason who benefits from these actions we could probably determine the "when" and "how". I don't think this will be a military decision, but will be made by those who would benefit by the further collapse of our market system.

Thoughts?

P.S. to the IDF..........if it comes down a gunfight I hope we stand shoulder to shoulder.

reply to post by yak055h


I agree with your thoughts on what effect any significant action would have on world markets .

Perhaps any decision to act against Iran will be visible in market activity just before a strike(s) are initiated .

Knowledge of a pre-emptive attack on Iran is quite a valuable piece of `insider trading` info .

Originally posted by Max_TO

We all know trouble is brewing in Iran on all possible fronts . Not only is Iran facing a possible revolt from its own people , Iran is also facing potential bombing raids from Israel & or the U.S .

Well you're half right. Iran is in some serious trouble from within. As far as this fictitious bombing from the US/Israel it won't happen.

Iran is pulling their dead from the rubble created by their own hands at the moment.

reply to post by SLAYER69


I sure hope that you are right and we don't see any bombing by the west over there as it would create a very messy situation to say the least .

Question is how long before we see the people of Iran taking it to the next step ?

If there government keeps creating situations where they have to dig there own people out of ruble then its my guess that it might happen sooner rather then latter ,

Nice new avatar BTW !

Double post

[edit on 27-12-2009 by Max_TO]

reply to post by UmbraSumus


An inside trader with knowledge of a preemptive strike would have to be someone with incredible power and influence in, or out, of the government. It's scary to think who such a person(s) could touch but not unimaginable. Everything always comes back to the Bengies doesn't it? It would transcend political parties and ideologies.

It is sad. 6 or 8 years ago I trusted my government, it's 2 party system and the solid fact that being a "Representative Republic" worked for the people. It turned out to be corral dust.

The decision to intervene in Iran will not be made by the two branches of the government responsible but by who will profit. Thanks for the reply Umbra

I am not sure. If Iran was unified, and not having the demonstrations, then I would say bombing hands down, but with the demonstrations and voices of the people raising up of discontentment, I think it may play into the Iranian regiems hands by making the world pause for a moment before taking action.
I do believe that if things keep going badly, they may try to goad the west and Isreal to attacking to unifying their country to focus the populace.

Here is an interesting perspective I'll let it speak for itself.

On the Ropes

Iranian.com

The military regime in Tehran is in its final days. The signs of an imminent collapse, perfectly traceable on the Iranian streets, are evading the most prominent Washington experts. The slogans on the walls, the nighttime chorus of Allah-o-akbar on the rooftops, the crowds chanting "death to the dictator," all signaling a collective defiance despite the brutal backlash, and all reflecting a mass mobilization unseen since the 1979 revolution.

The recurring cycles of peaceful protests and state violence is part of a larger transformation sweeping through Iran.