Iran comes out on top in secret simulated war games

Iran comes out on top in secret simulated war games

www.timesonline.co.uk

Iran has emerged as the victor in secret war games that simulated an Israeli attack on one of its nuclear facilities.

According to the scenario, the Obama Administration decided to pursue a diplomatic approach to Tehran, leaving America’s closest military ally in the region in the lurch.

The exercise, staged by Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies last month, showed that even an Israeli commando raid on Iran’s heavy water plant at Arak would not draw the US into a military conflict with Iran.

(visit the link for the full news article)

I wonder why this has been leaked. Maybe a mistake or a purpose behind it.

I can see why the coup d'etat regime in Iran would wish for an Israeli attack sooner rather than later:

- To prevent the Iranian army & airforce stepping in to protect innocent protestors.
- Which in turn would have increased mass protests either by protection from the army, or the freely availability to protest should the revolutionary guards/basij leave the protestors alone.

But Israel would want to wait until the last possible opportunity, as to not turn the opposition protestors against them as well.

IMO the coup d'etat regime now needs an outside enemy so they can distract the attention of protestors to an outside enemy. All it will take is for Israel to take the bait.

In the longterm, the revolutionary guards will gain the advantage and restore their control over Iran, and restart their nuclear programme whilst Obama hopes ineffective sanctions and the offer of an open hand will change the minds of extremists.



www.timesonline.co.uk
(visit the link for the full news article)

Originally posted by john124


I wonder why this has been leaked. Maybe a mistake or a purpose behind it.

I can see why the coup d'etat regime in Iran would wish for an Israeli attack sooner rather than later:

Iran WISHES for no attack ANY time

This sim attack was done by a Israeli University .

How can you turn your own thread inside out , to make Iran the bad guy?

reply to post by john124


You realize that this scenario would not play out like they have stated her because they don't model it with Israel using Nukes and they would. Nothing gets leaked to major news outlets, its given to them for a purpose.

Possibly this is a way to prompt Iran to attack Israel, thinking they could win.

All is fair in love and war and a model will not be able to tell you what will happen.

reply to post by Sean48


They were meant to be two different points. i.e. for what purpose would it serve Israel for Iran to know this, and the reasons I gave why the leaders of Iran would want to distract protestors away from chanting "death to the dictator". Hence possible bait laid down by Israel, for Iran's revolutionary guards to provoke Israel.

[edit on 22-12-2009 by john124]

Originally posted by john124

Iran comes out on top in secret simulated war games

www.timesonline.co.uk

Iran has emerged as the victor in secret war games that simulated an Israeli attack on one of its nuclear facilities.

According to the scenario, the Obama Administration decided to pursue a diplomatic approach to Tehran, leaving America’s closest military ally in the region in the lurch.

The exercise, staged by Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies last month, showed that even an Israeli commando raid on Iran’s heavy water plant at Arak would not draw the US into a military conflict with Iran.

(visit the link for the full news article)

Perhaps the most obvious ploy, if one were so inclined, that one could glean from this story is to instill the idea that Israel would not attack. Since the war game simulation "supposedly" plays out with Israel failing to achieve her goals: destroying Iran's nuclear capability and, most importantly, drawing an "American Shield" around her the implication is that Israel will not proceed with a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites.

Of course, the big questions still exist: were the results of this war game scenario "leaked" or were they simply "handed out"? This brings into question the veracity of the results of the simulation. Might not the Israelis deliberately falsify the results so as lull Iran into a false sense of security?

The truth of the matter is that war game simulations, like the best laid plans, quickly fall apart when they put into place for real. Few things, if any, play out as planned.

ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!! I'm glad to live in a nation that doesn't need to announce that it had a secret war games. In other news in an secret Israeli war game Iran no longer exists. Our closest allie? They do relise that they're neighbor is the 55th state right?

[edit on 22-12-2009 by mosesgunner]

OMG...

This has to be one of the most convoluted stories I've read in a loooong time.

So Iran comes out on top becuase the scenario shows that the US doesn't get drawn into the conflict aye? President Kowtow I mean Obama wouldn't support such an attack even in a simulation.

So there has been no attack, there is no attack and I highly doubt there ever will be.

reply to post by whoshotJR


Israel using nukes would be, in an internet word, "terribad" - For Israel.

Israel's leaders are jackasses, but they're not idiots. I know that for most Americans, and many Europeans, Israel is just that place where all the Jews need to be so Jesus can come back and Auschwitz all of them for good, But the Israelis themselves have something of a more prudent lasting idea of what their nation is.

Israel throwing a nuke at Iran basically ends up with pretty much every interested party - that is, everyone in Eurasia and North America - finally doing something about Israel. I doubt Israel would do too well when that happens. I also doubt that the leaders of Israel haven't already realized this, and are keeping those nukes they say they might have under wraps just in case a real moment of last-moment spite becomes opportune.

Israel will use conventional weapons. And bad things will happen to Israel. Iran will get battered around a bit, lose a few thousand people and a few billion dollars of work and infrastructure, but Israel will be unable to keep it up, will lose a number of its fighters, become the target of a new surge of attacks at home, and will have to break off operations - a fancy way of saying "retreat".

If Israel shoots first, I don't see the US tagging along for it. I imagine obama will do like every other US president does in this situation, "urge both sides to use restraint" while silently wondering if jesus is finally on his way.

Of course Iran would win a war without nukes or US involvement...an 8th grader could see that, much less a university simulation, and even with nukes on Israel's side I would still put an all out war in Iran’s favor. Much of Israel’s small population is in one major city where Iran is huge and has 10 TIMES the population with weapons to arm that population. Iran could easily make a army 3 times the whole population is Israel…geez

Even with nukes, israel does not win. Something would happen and some else would get involved as well. The world would not let that happen without ramifications. So, in theory if they nuked iran, and someone else got involved and attacked israel strategically, the u.s. would not get involved then either.

This is interesting, nothing is being hidden in this story, it is a fact. The u.s. would not get involved. One of the only ways the u.s. would get involved is if israel is attacked. We've already learned that lesson. If we are attacked we expect our allies to support us unconditionally.

This is not funny, but it is a fact israel does not win, in any way shape or form. They have no way what so ever of getting the u.s. directly involved, in is that simple. Again, there is no way to win alone. This should be common knowledge by now. It's funny, iran has few friends in the arab world, and they would win. Most would argue israel has more friends in the arab world than iran?

I wish people would just understand this already. Israel is in no position to give the u.s. another 6 months for diplomacy. This is a farse. They are not calling any shots anywhere. If they attack iran, it's on them, and on them only. Iran will not attack israel. Come on people, this is so simple. They will not win, admit it, no way, everyone knows that already. I am in no way waving an iranian flag in my statements, let it be said.

This "news report" or "leak" reminds me of similar "news reports" that were published just before the 6 day war. In those reports, Israeli soldiers were shown vacationing on Israeli beaches, thereby giving a false sense of security to Israel's adversaries. When the white house press secretary told Iran to take the Christmas deadline seriously, Iran mocked USA by apparently saying that no one gives Iran a deadline.

Although the "Israel bombs Iran" talk has been going on for a while, it looks as if the military option is more complicated now than it was a few years back. The "surgical strike with limited collateral damage" option is increasingly looking unlikely.

Originally posted by 517.101
Even with nukes, israel does not win. Something would happen and some else would get involved as well. The world would not let that happen without ramifications. So, in theory if they nuked iran, and someone else got involved and attacked israel strategically, the u.s. would not get involved then either.

This is interesting, nothing is being hidden in this story, it is a fact. The u.s. would not get involved. One of the only ways the u.s. would get involved is if israel is attacked. We've already learned that lesson. If we are attacked we expect our allies to support us unconditionally.

This is not funny, but it is a fact israel does not win, in any way shape or form. They have no way what so ever of getting the u.s. directly involved, in is that simple. Again, there is no way to win alone. This should be common knowledge by now. It's funny, iran has few friends in the arab world, and they would win. Most would argue israel has more friends in the arab world than iran?

I wish people would just understand this already. Israel is in no position to give the u.s. another 6 months for diplomacy. This is a farse. They are not calling any shots anywhere. If they attack iran, it's on them, and on them only. Iran will not attack israel. Come on people, this is so simple. They will not win, admit it, no way, everyone knows that already. I am in no way waving an iranian flag in my statements, let it be said.

None of what you stated is a fact because they war hasn't happened yet. Thats speculation, not fact.

reply to post by whoshotJR


Buzz off, go find you rself. What are you a spell checker as well. You haven't even posted a reply to the post. I guess you're still processing the results. Get an opinion of your own bottomfeeder.

When the USSR disintegrated, a great many of their very best top bio weapons experts were lured by cash to work in Iran.
They have been hard at work ever since in Iran, and although never widely publicized, it is now well known in military and intelligence circles that Iran is now very advanced in bio warfare technology, "the poor nations nuke".

Iran both could and WOULD retaliate against Israel if nuked.
And the result on poor little Israel wold not be good.
There is no real defense against a sophisticated surprise bio attack either.

Another wild card in all this is that a great many actual nuclear devices and nuclear technology mysteriously disappeared and are still unaccounted for after the breakup of the USSR.

These could now be anywhere, but Ian with bulk petro dollars was in a very good position to buy all manner of strange things on the black market from corrupt Russians.

Now some people say that a nuke becomes useless just sitting around for many years, and it is true that the batteries and electronics can crap out and become unreliable, meaning it may not go off when triggered.

But the actual warhead part with the plutonium will work fine for many thousands of years, it is only the electrical detonation part which may require some maintenance. and testing to ensure reliability.
And that is all very simple basic well understood technology.

While Iran will probably be unable to produce a nuke from scratch for quite some time, it may already have a few nasty little surprises very carefully hidden away, well maintained, and ready to boogie.

All speculation.
Although the very advanced bio weapons technology in Iran is very real.

While most if not all nuclear armed countries have become complacent, and lapsed somewhat in the bio weapons field, Iran is now right at the very front with modern and sophisticated bio weapons capability.

These could be released any time, any where in the world as a counter attack if Iran is nuked, and you don't need a nuclear submarine or an ICBM to deliver it either.

The war games also showed that while Israel was diplomatically and militarily hobbled, Iran would likely continue enriching uranium.

Although this is a simulation only, it does make sense. The above quotation pretty much sums it all up.

Option A: Israel leaves Iran be
Option B: Israel attacks Iran independently with conventional weapons.
Option C: The US and Israel jointly attack Iran.
Option D: Israel attacks Iran with non-conventional weapons.

Option A doesn't seem like a plausible option for Israel. If they indeed consider Iran as such a threat, they will risk the possibility of another Holocaust.

Option B neither seems probable, as Israel lacks the conventional power to successfully strike Iran. It surely could delay the nuclear program, but I doubt it would shut down their program entirely. Additionally, the Iranians are believed to possess the technology and know-how to produce uranium. This, together with Iran's statement on the construction of multiple new enrichment sites, makes the threat remain to exist but only delayed.

Moreover, Iran would retaliate by launching a full scale (missile) and proxy (Hezbollah) attack on Israel. Syria and Palestinian terrorist groups could join their fight. Although I doubt the Palestinians could cause much destruction, Hezbollah certainly could with an arsenal believed to include over 52,000 rockets and (advanced) missiles. Syria has a huge number of artillery units and could definitely cause civilian destruction. Although they are eager to take back the Golan heights, the risk for destruction might be considered too high, as Syria lacks the modern military means to defend itself against an Israeli invasion. Either way, the bottom line would be many civilian casualties on all sides.

Option C is according to the article far from likely too as America does not have the stomach for another Iraq nor is a ground invasion a realistic possibility. Iran is geographically more complicated and larger than Iraq. A joint air-campaign could be considered, but again, it would probably only delay the nuclear program with only one certainty: uncertainty about the full destruction of the threat. Iran is assumed to have underground bases, which might be resistant against air-assaults. In addition, it is unknown how far the intelligence on Iranian strategic (nuclear) sites reaches. In other words, have Israel and the US mapped all nuclear enrichment facilities or are there any secret bases left that they don't know about?

Option D is a last-resort option. It could destroy the Iranian threat, but then again it would start an arms race for nuclear weapons throughout the world. Israel would suffer extreme international sanctions, boycotts as well as terrorist attacks and a whole region full of revenge. Nuclear weapons are for sale on the black market, that's no secret. In such a hypothetical situation, I wouldn't be surprised if there are people actually willing to use them against Israel. It would mean that the Iranian threat would turn into a bigger and broader threat, not something that Israel would want.

Last, there's an option for a coupe d'etat. The right moment for that would have been the elections in Iran some time ago. Apparently, the attempt failed or Israel and the US had reason to think it would not be successful anyway and didn't pursuit it at all.

The bottom line is that Israel will be diplomatically and militarily hobbled as stated in the quotation. I doubt there's another option to avoid such consequences. Furthermore, the international chaos would be huge, the oil price would skyrocket, supertankers would be attacks in the Persian Gulf and the global economy would suffer extremely in an already unstable environment.

The question is not if Israel will act, the question is when. The fact that they haven't done so only confirms the complexity of the situation. The consequences will be severe in either way; casualties will be severe, destruction inevitable.

Am i the only one who secretly wants Israel to have its arse kicked by Iran?

I'm absolutely sick to death of Israel and the US thinking they are somehow superior than any other nation on the planet.

Methinks they need knocking down a peg or two, and this time don't be drawing the UK into the mix.

Originally posted by mr-lizard
Am i the only one who secretly wants Israel to have its arse kicked by Iran?

I'm absolutely sick to death of Israel and the US thinking they are somehow superior than any other nation on the planet.

Methinks they need knocking down a peg or two, and this time don't be drawing the UK into the mix.

Well the US is, I'm not sure about Israel, but for a very small country they are a badass

Am i the only one who secretly wants Israel to have its arse kicked by Iran?

Early on in its rather short existence Israel had the good misfortune of having to fight a few do or die, life and death wars. Even though they had some important outside help in the way of weapons, ammunition and intelligence those were truly desperate moments for the Israelis who lived there who at such a point weren’t just clinging to keep their dream of an Israel alive but to stay alive!

Having your back up against it makes all the difference in how a person fights as an individual and how a unit fights collectively and how a nation approaches war collectively.

Those few desperate wars have in many people’s minds Israeli and non-Israeli alike created a certain aura of invincibility about the Israeli Armed Forces.

It’s a false notion though and one that Israel is no doubt aware of as it got bogged down and made little headway on the ground in recent wars in Lebanon and was virtually afraid to attempt to enter Gaza on land in mass in yet another recent war were it failed to reach its objectives in part because its tactics designed to minimize its own causalities and not expose its own weaknesses were so offensive and distasteful to the world as it watched a new underdog foe Israel had created in it’s own do or die struggle.

Simply put the Israeli military is not the vaunted machine legend has cast it into being, formidable yes, but indestructible no.

Talmudic Law and the Zionist Manifesto both call for getting third parties like America to fight in deadly situations for Israel when and if at all possible and that is what it truly prefers to do in its secret and hidden survival strategy of Muslim attrition and keeping its invincible myth alive in the Islamic World.

Yet as this pathetic article shows the once might propaganda machine that once was so adroit at manipulating the perceptions and attitudes of the citizens of the Western Judean/Christian World has ceased to become effective.

The Internet age has by and large defeated it as it has opened up in many ways what is now a two way dialogue to the news. There is no longer just one version of events put forward by the mainstream news media and its talking heads, editorialized for maximum effect.

Today people like you and me and countless others examine with critical minds Israeli claims and assail them and expose them when they reek of the kinds of falsehoods and base unsubstantiated manipulations like the article in the original post.

In fact about the only people who believe Israeli propaganda anymore are the people paid to spread it or so hateful and biased and prejudiced from religious xenophobia that they want to believe it simply because they want to believe so many hateful and closed minded things fed to them by various institutions that brainwash and manipulate them and provide them a semi-validated existence and notions of absolution in return.

I empathize with how you feel and tend to believe myself that a war with Iran would be a bloody and costly one for all parties concerned.

I am no more anxious to see Iranians die than I am Israelis or Americans. I personally think at this stage Israel will still attack and will do so within the week on the 27th of December just like they attacked Gaza last year and this is all propaganda in the hopes that Iran will let down its guard some from its current heightened state of alert.

Yet for the time being as I hope history will prove me wrong on this dire and sad prediction it would be nice to think that the warmongering propaganda agents who desperately seek to contrive context and pretext for these senseless and costly wars of aggression might be finally learning that diplomacy is the way to go moving forward in a world that is becoming just a bit to mature for such violent and childish games.

Must be that universal season of joy and goodwill at work!

Let us not forget the USS Liberty............,

Or the Israeli film crew that were sent to specifically record the destruction of the World Trade Center "live" as it happened.

The day is rapidly coming where Israel takes on more than it can handle, and the intended victim of this nasty little country strikes back..