Video: The Asteroid That Will Almost Hit Earth

That asteroid is Apophis, a 900-foot asteroid. Calculations released on Christmas Eve 2004 appeared to show that there was a greater than 2 percent chance the asteroid would hit the Earth in 2029. The asteroid appeared ready to give the Earth its closest shave since astronomers began looking for such things. It was judged a 4 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale for a short time, the highest rating any near-Earth object has received.

As it turned out, more precise observations brought the risk of collision down to just 1 in 250,000, but the scare sparked greater interest and study in the fields of asteroid detection and defense.

Even though the asteroid doesn’t look like it’s going to hit Earth, on April 13, 2029, it will come closer to Earth than any other near-Earth object that we know of. It will pass just 18,300 miles above the planet’s surface.

Here, we see an exclusive animation created by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of what that approach will look like from the perspective of the asteroid. And whoo boy, does it seem close.

www.wired.com...

View animation:

link.brightcove.com...

[edit on 19-12-2009 by 12GaugePermissionSlip]

its not a matter of if earth gets hit but when .
the funny thing to me is were the firt species ever that can see its on demise that can be caused by these things . and instead of using our intelegence to find ways to stop it we instead creat things that can accutly do it nukler wepons cemical warfare biowarfare.
you can quite worrying about rocks from space as we will likly destroy ourselfs long befor the next rock hits or the next super volcanio blows its top.
ten minits after were goin earth will breath a sigh of relife and try again in a 100million years mabby the next intelegence will accutly be intelegent

Dang I hope there wasn't a calculation error, because it looks like if it hits, it is going to hit the USA.

Hmmm here is what it would do.

www.lpl.arizona.edu...

Looks like some localized devastation, but nothing that would end civilization. It would probably kill a lot of people if it hit an ocean.

reply to post by 12GaugePermissionSlip


That's really scary to think about. perhaps we could find a way to avert it?

reply to post by downtown436


Awesome link downtown. If you don't mind I am going to post that data here:

Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 100.00 km = 62.10 miles
Projectile Diameter: 274.32 m = 899.77 ft = 0.17 miles
Projectile Density: 3000 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 30.70 km/s = 19.06 miles/s
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 2500 kg/m3
Target Type: Sedimentary Rock

Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 1.53 x 1019 Joules = 3.65 x 103 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 6.1 x 104years

Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 63500 meters = 208000 ft
The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 28.8 km/s = 17.9 miles/s
The impact energy is 1.34 x 1019 Joules = 3.20 x 103MegaTons.
The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 0.899 km by 0.635 km

Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis.
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

Crater Dimensions:
What does this mean?


Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed.

Transient Crater Diameter: 4.86 km = 3.02 miles
Transient Crater Depth: 1.72 km = 1.07 miles

Final Crater Diameter: 6.01 km = 3.73 miles
Final Crater Depth: 0.508 km = 0.315 miles

The crater formed is a complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 0.0844 km3 = 0.0203 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater , where its average thickness is 4.55 meters = 14.9 feet

Thermal Radiation:
What does this mean?


Time for maximum radiation: 0.165 seconds after impact

Visible fireball radius: 3.97 km = 2.46 miles
The fireball appears 9.02 times larger than the sun
Thermal Exposure: 5.06 x 105 Joules/m2
Duration of Irradiation: 61.8 seconds
Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 8.2

Effects of Thermal Radiation:


Much of the body suffers first degree burns


Seismic Effects:
What does this mean?


The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 20 seconds.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.9
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 100 km:

VI. Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.

VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.


Ejecta:
What does this mean?


The ejecta will arrive approximately 144 seconds after the impact.
At your position the ejecta arrives in scattered fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 4.99 mm = 0.196 inches
Mean Fragment Diameter: 3.73 cm = 1.47 inches


Air Blast:
What does this mean?


The air blast will arrive at approximately 303 seconds.
Peak Overpressure: 16000 Pa = 0.16 bars = 2.27 psi
Max wind velocity: 35.3 m/s = 79.1 mph
Sound Intensity: 84 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description:


Glass windows will shatter.

While this doesn't sound too bad, keep in mind this is at 62 miles away from impact. It calculates a crater almost four miles in diameter? While not earth shattering, if it were to hit NY, it would level most of it, and kill 20 million people.

Makes you wonder though what would the governemtns be doing right now if the probability was say 1/2 or even 1/10. Say that it was that high, causing them to run extensive calculations and simulation and they were 100% sure of a 1/2 probability. How would the governments start preparing for the impact 20 years from now?

Interseting that the simulation showed no deviation in the flight path due to earths gravity. Would this not be noticable?

Originally posted by shade454
How would the governments start preparing for the impact 20 years from now?

Pretty simple for a rock this size; strap the largest ion engine you can build (or perhaps easier, as many as you can build) attached to the largest set of solar arrays you can manage to launch onto the rock and let it burn for the next 20 years. All you have to do is nudge it a couple meters per second in a given direction to turn a hit into a miss, at least this far out from impact. Hitting any planet in an interplanetary trajectory is tricky at best, and the slightest deviation can make a huge impact on where you arrive. For instance, right now I'm simulating a mission to mars and returning to earth in realtime. A typical correction burn will take me from hypothetically missing earth by 6000 kilometers or more to hitting the earth's atmosphere 7 months in the future and it will only force me to change my velocity by 2-3 meters per second (around 5mph). It's a big rock, but ion engines are fantastic for burns where you have a lot of time on your hands and you need the most bang for very little fuel consumption.

[edit on 19-12-2009 by ngchunter]

We should start building our houses underground!!!

Check out five years later, when it makes its second pass. From what I recall, if it arrives the first time (2029) within a very small window of space/time, the probability of it impacting the second go-around increases.

I know I had that link somewhere (checks pockets). I'll be back if I can find it.

reply to post by argentus


Did I say FIVE years later? Yes, I did. Try thirteen years later -- 2042. JPL animation

Originally posted by LocoHombre
reply to post by 12GaugePermissionSlip

 

That's really scary to think about. perhaps we could find a way to avert it?

Erm, nope, we just ain't got the time, we're way too busy fighting amongst ourselves over money and oil to worry about a small asteroid that may or may not hit us.

Also, look at April 23, 2016 on that JPL animation I posted; The asteroid comes very close to Venus.

and people have only realised this now?

I've been crapping on about this for ages.

There is alot of bad things happening in space,

and most of it our government doesnt want us to know.

In the animation-Is the asteroid represented in its actual size compared to Earth?

Because if it is that size,wouldn't it excert some massive pull on our gravity?Could be great fun...
Is THIS what the seed banks are for?

At least we won't have to worry about man made climate change.