Saudi attacks Yemen

news.antiwar.com...
Saudi Air Strikes Kill Up to 70 Yemeni Civilians
"Saudi warplanes launched a series of air strikes against a market in Northern Yemen’s Bani Maan today, with witnesses confirming that at least 35 civilians had been killed and dozens injured"

Here goes. The beginning of the ME meltdown.
Iran gets busted with nukes and now Saudi is setting themselves up for their oilfields to burn. Party time.

Saudi Arabia has been making incursions to follow certain groups who have bases in Yemen for the past couple of months.

The Yemeni government has not taken it as a sign of aggression against Yemen.

I suspect that this will be the same.

Originally posted by JJay55
news.antiwar.com...
Saudi Air Strikes Kill Up to 70 Yemeni Civilians
"Saudi warplanes launched a series of air strikes against a market in Northern Yemen’s Bani Maan today, with witnesses confirming that at least 35 civilians had been killed and dozens injured"

Here goes. The beginning of the ME meltdown.
Iran gets busted with nukes and now Saudi is setting themselves up for their oilfields to burn. Party time.

JJ,

I'm not sure it's time for Saudi kids to put marshmallows on sticks quite yet, but something is happening.

The Russians have realigned themselves. Less co-operation with Iran, more with the Saudis, US, Israel. It looks like a showdown. The Russians have decided a nuclear capable Iran is a threat to them and their interests.

The Saudi dealing directly with an Iran supported Yemeni faction is a breakthrough. With sanctions and further isolation breaking Iran's back on multiple fronts.

Iran has conflicting internal factions. The airforce is coming out in support of public dissent, naming the Revolutionary Guard as opponents. This might could be a hint of a military coup which might be the best alternative to the corrupted Revolutionary Guard who enacted their own coup against the Mullahs last Spring.

Something ugly is going on. The airforce may have gotten wind of plans to strike Israel or elsewhere and be baulking. Not much of a secret Iranian air capabilty is dysfunctional with hopelessly out of date unreliable equipment Russia unloaded on them. Engagements with modern airforce would be suicide.

Would be fun if the US, Israel, Russia, Europe had decided all the squabbling in the Middle East needs to come to an end - and fast. The Saudis, Turkey, Pakistan will decide on who stays and who goes. Mr A may be out of a job.


Mike

Do they have marshmellows in Saudi, mmiiccheal? Isn't pleasure against the law there?
I don't think it's as simple as Russia is pissed and they will form an alliance, nothing is as it seems so I think we will defeat the plague as systematically as the Cold War results but with a different approach. First step was putting in a prez that was bait. But I'll stop there and take my seat in the audience and wait for the real show... coming soon. Yay.

Originally posted by JJay55
Do they have marshmellows in Saudi, mmiiccheal? Isn't pleasure against the law there?
I don't think it's as simple as Russia is pissed and they will form an alliance, nothing is as it seems so I think we will defeat the plague as systematically as the Cold War results but with a different approach. First step was putting in a prez that was bait. But I'll stop there and take my seat in the audience and wait for the real show... coming soon. Yay.

Well they don't have Communion Wafers in Saudi Arabia, that's for sure.

Russia engages in a lot of head games to compensate for their budget constraints and lack of military clout.

They play the Saudis mercilessly. But the Saudis play them too. A lot of backdoor agreements. Word is Russia and Israel are collaborating more than conflicting these days.

The anticipated increase in oil prices to a projected $200 a barrel - which never materialized - knocked the wind out of the sails of a lot of players particularly the major supplier ME oil suppliers and Russia. A lot of regrouping now.

Things may cool down a little. Internal strife will force needed refocus on domestic issues. Iran's govt is in chaos. Pakistan's govt is nearing collapse. AQ and associates will try to take advantage of the power vacuums created. The Drug biz is now their primary source of funding. That creates new and different problems.

No one is itching for a war right now. We'll just see more reshuffling of the cards. New friends made, old ones dropped.

Syria may come in out of the cold. That's being worked on. Iran will not have any girlfriends in the neighbourhood.

reply to post by mmiichael

I see it differently. Maybe I want to see it differently. heh.
Syria is next.

Originally posted by JJay55
reply to post by mmiichael

 

I see it differently. Maybe I want to see it differently. heh.
Syria is next.

You're not wrong and I'm not right. The script is being written day by day.
One wild card could change the storyline.

I'm a big believer in inertia. Most of humanity finds it easier to let things keep getting worse rather than changing them.

When something like massive famine or disease hits the Mid East then we'll see radical change. For now they will keep tightening their belts, squabbling more, whining more, let off steam with some local skirmishes.

That's all they know.

If I'm wrong that would be great. We all want climax and closure.

They've been rallying for bloodshed and violence. Let's see if they deliver.

Originally posted by mmiichael
You're not wrong and I'm not right. The script is being written day by day.
One wild card could change the storyline.

I'm a big believer in inertia. Most of humanity finds it easier to let things keep getting worse rather than changing them.

When something like massive famine or disease hits the Mid East then we'll see radical change. For now they will keep tightening their belts, squabbling more, whining more, let off steam with some local skirmishes.

That's all they know.

If I'm wrong that would be great. We all want climax and closure.

They've been rallying for bloodshed and violence. Let's see if they deliver.

I don't believe the day by day script. There are plans that span 50-100 years and more. AQ has a distinct 7 phase 20 year plan that is playing out exactly on schedule.
Sure the famine, disease and rally for bloodshed are a bonus but only a result of the 3 constant factors (population density, gender imbalance and resource depletion). Perfectly predictable. But you're not wrong, just leaving it to the universe when men are in control. And yes, I want climax too. heh.

Originally posted by JJay55
I don't believe the day by day script. There are plans that span 50-100 years and more. AQ has a distinct 7 phase 20 year plan that is playing out exactly on schedule.

Sure the famine, disease and rally for bloodshed are a bonus but only a result of the 3 constant factors (population density, gender imbalance and resource depletion). Perfectly predictable. But you're not wrong, just leaving it to the universe when men are in control. And yes, I want climax too. heh.

I'm with you on the long term plan. But Marx, Lenin, Trotsky, et al had long term programs for Communist domination of the world. Obama might even a skipped generation component.

Problem with the Muslim world domination scenario is centralized planning. The appeal is religious/emotional. But higher education, gender integration, military savvy, technological modernity, are weak points.

And they play their hands badly. Have seen Saudis gambling. No comprehension of complex strategies.

When a Muslim world diplomat emerges we might see direction on the world stage. Prince Bandar was warming up for that but got caught in the failed palace revolt recently.

The next Saudi king will be an important choice. Not too many bright candidates with the family politics.

[edit on 15-12-2009 by mmiichael]

Ok, so what are the "what if's"?
What if Israel goes alone against Iran? (coming to a Christian holiday near you)
What if Afg turns ugly? (not likely)
What if Pak launches nukes? (even though India has them at gunpoint)
What if there is an EU assassination? (not just face punches)
What if Syrian prez disappears? (2010 for sure)
That's all I got. Anything to add?

Originally posted by JJay55
Ok, so what are the "what if's"?
What if Israel goes alone against Iran? (coming to a Christian holiday near you)
.
Iran would have Syria as an ally, as well as massive portions of the middle East, they have South America in their Corner, North KOrea, and conciencious observers would be Russia and China. US will defend Israel but will do so through israel, make no mistake the American flag will be beside the Israeli one, just not on the battlefield/predator screen.

What if Afg turns ugly? (not likely)
.
Im sorry but what if? My countries been there the whole time, its been ugly the whole time. Your enemy can traverse back and forth through imaginary borders on mountains, the pursuers cannot, doesnt get much uglier than fighting an enemy with a safe haven.

What if Pak launches nukes? (even though India has them at gunpoint)
.
Who would Pakistan fire a nuke at? If Pakistan fired a nuke it will go down in history as the greatest military blunder to have ever happened. The reprocusions from them firing a first strike on any nation would be catastrophic (for them). I cant see a nation like Pakistan willingly firing a weapon like that in a pre emptive strike. There is no reason for it from their perspective and no people are looking for mass suicide.

What if there is an EU assassination? (not just face punches)
.
I am assuming the same as any other assination, mass riots, people killed, calm restored by a passionate speaker, or the mob mentality going to far and people becoming self aware again. Or the flip side there is i guess the real possibility for some temporary anarchy, but it always subsides.

What if Syrian prez disappears? (2010 for sure)
.
History is riddled with people who have said things are going to happen for sure, dont join them, theres no way you could know this to happen. At best you can speculate, and the obvious questions arising from that statement are to many to answer in a broad statement of "what if", theres at leats 50 questions to answer before any "ifs" occur.

That's all I got. Anything to add?

Yes i do, as MIB put it the world is always this close to coming to an end. Our understanding of certain relations globally can only be that of the information we are fed, we are not privy to the conversations behind closed doors. Who knows how close we come everyday to War with any of the four corners of the world? Mass specualtions will only lead to mass delusions, seek political and personal responsability and understand that each side sees itself as good, fighting a just cause agaisnt the other. Men will act in ways that are atrocious to us, it does not mean that people willingly act everyday with the intention of creating a global war.

reply to post by Hack28

Ahhhh, MSM conclusions. Predictable.
Yes Pak would make that blunder as a sacrifice in fard ayn.
Yes Israel will go at it alone.
Yes Syrian prez will have trouble.
No Afg won't get ugly, well until the valley beneath Kabul but that will just be ugly for them.
EU assassination was just a wildcard. Probably Belgium or Danish. I dunno.

What if AQ surrenders at the LOC? Would we accept? no, wait, I know the answer to that.
What if the swine flu was accidently released in Mexico and the ME refused the vaccines? Oh wait, that already happened.
hmmmm. That's all I got.
Anyone?

Hello.

Just something that caught my eye on Hack's post.

I'm from brazil. Don't confuse our president Lula showing friendship with Iran's president as something that would put BRAZIL in a war WITH IRAN against the rest of the world.

Dude... read my lips... IT WOULD NEVER HAPPEN. ever, ever, ever....

No brazilian president is crazy enough to do it, specially Lula. It would ruin his name forever. Not gonna happen. And 2010 is presidencial ellection year. In case such a war takes place, believe me, Brazil would either become Neutral or side with US giving minimal help.

Have you seen us in Iraq? NO. I doubt Hugo Chaves would want to get his nose in that Iran war either. He is crazy, but not THAT crazy.

Here in South America we are more concerned about developing our economies. THATS IT.

The war games we leave to the warmongers. We want none of it and will have none of it. At least as long as we can choose not to be part of it.

www.jpost.com...

US doing Iran attack simulations.

Originally posted by henriquefd

The war games we leave to the warmongers. We want none of it and will have none of it. At least as long as we can choose not to be part of it.

Bold type added by me.

That's the problem right there -- those seven words. Hugo Chavez, I can assure you, DOES NOT have the same ideas as you as to what Venezuela and the rest of South America are and are not a part of. He's the guy that keeps claiming the CIA is trying to have him assassinated. Now, it doesn't really matter whether or not the CIA is trying to kill him -- if he thinks they are, and a war starts, he will most certainly THINK it involves him -- and he would then turn to his South American allies and either gain or lose support.

Right now there seems to be a shuffling around of sorts of power in South America -- highlighted of course by the Columbia negotiations.

Keep in mind, the US is seemingly making strides in South America and Chavez considers this a huge threat. To think that he would not use this threat as cause to fight AGAINST the US is, to me anyway, naive.

I don't think Chavez is going to start anything. But I don't think he would remain neutral or uninvolved.

Chavez is part of OPEC, he has to play the game.

The bold part of my text that you highlighted only serves to emphasize what I said in other parts of my post. IF we have to participate in the war it's gonna be on US/EUROPE´s side. Our relationship with Iran is nothing but economical.

Brazil doesn't have a big history in participating in wars. People here join the army because it's a way to get paid every month.

Now, what I would concede to you is that Chavez is VERY concerned about Colombia. I am as well. Because that war with Iran could cause Chavez to attack Colombia.

That I believe.

I'm not sure how Brazil would play its part in that scenario, but at least reinforce our borders. Dont think Chavez would attack both Colombia AND Brazil. That's too much for him and nobody beats Brazilian army in the rain Forest. Heck, US Soldiers come to Brazil to get training from our army in our rain Forest. So, no, I dont think Brazil would side with Iran and I dont think Chavez would attack us.

So, if that war comes, I see Brazil defending its borders in that area near Colombia and Venezuela and MAYBE sending help to the ALLIES against Iran. Maybe... only if we really really really have to.

But that's it.

Originally posted by henriquefd
Chavez is VERY concerned about Colombia. I am as well. Because that war with Iran could cause Chavez to attack Colombia.

That I believe.

I'm not sure how Brazil would play its part in that scenario, but at least reinforce our borders. Dont think Chavez would attack both Colombia AND Brazil. That's too much for him and nobody beats Brazilian army in the rain Forest. Heck, US Soldiers come to Brazil to get training from our army in our rain Forest. So, no, I dont think Brazil would side with Iran and I dont think Chavez would attack us.

So, if that war comes, I see Brazil defending its borders in that area near Colombia and Venezuela and MAYBE sending help to the ALLIES against Iran. Maybe... only if we really really really have to.

But that's it.

When lived in Venezuela I travelled by jeep from Caracas into the heart of north Brazil. The region is referred to locally as La Savana Grande.

Almost impenetrable by tanks, road appear and disappear depending on rainfall.

Chavez is a true paranoid. Like his buddies Mr A in Iran and Mr Kim in N Korea, no one knows how far he would go in an extreme situation. But at least he has no religious delusions and hopefully prioritizes self-preservation for himself and his countrymen.

Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay may become hot spots as terrorist networks move more into the drug biz, financing their political project side ventures.

The Catholic Church may start playing a bigger role soon. Word is the next Pope will be from South America - where the majority of practicing Catholics are today.

M

What's the Pope going to do? Bless Chavez and forgive his sins then drink some wine? Chavez is a profiteer. Is that a word?

Thanks for the interesting conversation gentlemen. Always a pleasure.

Iran = Doomed

Russia will turn out on our side this is about Globalization and a pipeline badly needed by India and China when it all comes down to it...

Iran wants to monopolize it and isn't cooperating.