Conditions Ripe for a White Christmas

(Dec. 11) -- The weather might seem complex, but the recipe for snow isn't as complicated as the recipe for Grandma's fruitcake. All that's needed is cold air and precipitation, and both look potentially abundant throughout the rest of the month, leading to the possibility of a more widespread white Christmas in 2009 than in recent years.

The likelihood of a white Christmas is always high -- greater than 75 percent -- in the northern tier of the country and in the mountains of the West. However, the presence of an El Niño and the threat of colder-than-normal weather will increase the chances of a white Christmas in the Deep South and along the Eastern Seaboard.


National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration
Climatologically likelihood of a White Christmas.
The cold air part of the snow recipe has been predicted by computer models that we meteorologists use to help with long-range forecasts. The coupled forecast system, a U.S. government forecasting model, has consistently predicted (since November) that temperatures in the entire eastern half of the country, including the Deep South, will be 1 to 3 degrees colder than normal in December, and it's currently forecasting cold weather for most of the nation for the remainder of the month.


Cold air without storms won't result in snow, of course, but storms combined with cold air might. And storms are more likely than normal where the cold weather is forecast because of a strengthening El Niño. An El Niño is when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are warmer than normal, and the moisture and energy from this warm ocean water promotes a storm track across the southern part of the United States. These storms often turn northward along the East Coast.

This weather pattern has already borne fruit (snow, actually) in Southern and Eastern climes. December snow has fallen in El Paso, Dallas and Houston in Texas, as well as in parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. Snow has also fallen in much of the Northeast. The southern storm track remained active this week, producing the recent coast-to-coast powerhouse of a storm; it originated in California.

So when you mix these ingredients, the current weather pattern might mean fewer people will only "dream" of a white Christmas this year. They'll actually be able to shiver in the cold, spend more time stuck at the airport and drag slush onto Grandma's carpet.
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Go ahead and click on the link to take a look at the chart.



[edit on 14-12-2009 by Common Good]

I saw this while logging on to AOL.
I thought it was kind of weird comming from AOL, but nevertheless, it looks like we are all in for a very cold Winter(if you havent noticed already).
Does this puncture a hole in the Climate Change BS?
Or does this show no evidence whatsoever debunking GW?
I live in Vegas, and it has been freezing out here. We got some snow on the mountains, and ice on our sidewalks. It seems really cold this winter for some strange reason, more than last years anyways.

The high today is suppose to be 70 degrees, where I live.

Have fun with your cold, wet, weather

I wonder what they consider to be the "deep south". I live in the deep south (and there's even deeper south than where I am) and it's less than a 5% chance here. I'd sure love some snow...any snow.

As far as the climate change aspect, I don't really lean one way or the other.

But, can one years temps be used as a basis for debunking it? Can't some years just be anomalies?