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You can develope a machine to flip a coin in a controlled enviroment..... what you have just said is extremely ignorant. The variables in casino are kept OUT of yoru controll fo ra a good reason.... they want you to lose. As long as you are kept stupid and ignorant probabilitys still have the ILLUSION of existing.
They only appear non deterministic because your ignorant to the processes within their minds. We are now breaking down this barrier of ignonrance.
I say probability exists but only as a measure of our own ignorance and inability to conceive of how a chain reaction of events will finally manifest into reality. We can only guess among a number of "possible" outcomes, which are only as "possible" as our ignorance allows.
Rolling a die will ALWAYS result in 1 in 6 chance whether or not you knew all the forces involved.
Originally posted by Deaf Alien
reply to post by sirnex
Ok run an experiment. Throw it 1000 or more times. Throw it in a windy days. On the most bumpy table. Whatever.
Then tell me what the probability is.
I do not understand the disagreement?
A perfect die (ie no weighted sides, smooth, etc) has 6 sides. Logic says that it will land on any of those 6 sides. HENCE 1 in 6 chance. Unless it lands on the corner and stand still. That would be astronomical!
I don't understand how ignoring variables creates probability when it's those variables that determine which side will be landed. Where does the probability arise, before the die is thrown or after it is thrown?
I have to disagree as the minute that dice is sent rolling across that table, it's side of landing will be determined by other variables
Originally posted by Deaf Alien
Rolling a die will ALWAYS result in 1 in 6 chance whether or not you knew all the forces involved.
Foreknowledge and determinism have NOTHING to do with probability.
You are going to have to come up with a better example than that, because you COULD calculate how a die will land if you knew every significant force involved at every point between its being thrown and it coming to rest. We just don't take measurements of this every time we throw dice.
BUT you are missing the POINT.. of what probability IS...
ITS MATHS!!
If all the initial forces and environmental conditions were measured each time, then I could tell you beforehand each time.
What's your point?
I've said it before, the probability comes in when you take the measurement part out -- it leaves you with your own ignorance to guess what's going to happen and express it as a "probability." But the minute you start measuring again, you know what's going to happen again.
Even if you could tell me beforehand each time, one of 6 sides has to land sometimes, correct?
ONE IN SIX CHANCE
NOW TELL ME WHAT IT AVERAGES OUT IN THE FUTURE. I'd love to hear this. 1 in 5 chance? 1 in 2? What????
I understand the point of OP. I know all about determinism. But hell.... even with determinism, what side will it favor more? 1? 2? ... 6?
PLEASE tell me what it averages out to in the long run????????
I DO NOT CARE IF I HAD TO GUESS!!!
HOW MANY SIDES ARE THERE IN A DIE????
HOW MANY SIDES HAVE TO LAND?
BINGO!!!
1 side out of 6 sides!!!!
One of six sides doesn't have a probable *chance* of landing though, it's a determined side if all variables are accounted for.
Once that die leave's your hand, where is the "chance" arising from?
After that die is tossed, all subsequent variables determine one specific side, not one possible side.
Average of one side each toss once all variables are accounted for after the toss. You can't simply ignore all variables when those variables determine the side it will land on and demand it's "chance".
Where is this chance arising from after it's tossed???? That's right, it arises by IGNORING all extant variables.
I can understand the appearance of probability before a toss, but as no toss has been made, that probability is illusory as nothing is occurring, but once the act of tossing the die occurs, there is no more chance.