GOLD is due for about a 30% +/- CORRECTION, let me convince you in this thread

reply to post by GreenBicMan


The concentrated short position in silver that's been documented by Ted Butler is actual evidence. Maguire's prediction is also credible; it was sent to the CFTC before the event and was spot on.

Your objection isn't clear. He didn't claim to base his prediction on ideas about weird spikes or arguments about liquidity. You seem to be suggesting that his prediction could have come from these arguments about weird spikes and liquidity, and that it had nothing to do with insider knowledge about market manipulation. Unless I've misunderstood you, then, you're calling him a liar. Is that so?

reply to post by monetaryprotest


No, that is NOT evidence man. That is total garbage. *not being mean*

The net short/long positions change so much it is ridiculous.

Please reference the net short/long positions in the EUR/USD at the end of the week. If you fade this 6/10 times you will be right. Meaning net short/long positions mean nothing because you are not seeing the "whole picture" as the market is much longer than any short term time window you are referencing.

reply to post by monetaryprotest


I would be calling him a liar until he can come up with something better than this. Maybe like a taped conversation or something, but in reality anything else again is hearsay or disinformation even. You have no idea the real agenda of most. Neither do I.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


You say: "The net short/long positions change so much it is ridiculous.

Please reference the net short/long positions in the EUR/USD at the end of the week. If you fade this 6/10 times you will be right. Meaning net short/long positions mean nothing because you are not seeing the "whole picture" as the market is much longer than any short term time window you are referencing."

In the silver market, I don't think they do change that much. JP Morgan has had a short position equivalent to about 30% of global silver production since the collapse of Bear Stearns. That's a big short position, it's not changing so much that it's ridiculous (although I think a short position that big IS ridiculous). The "short term time window [I am] referencing" is over two years. Seems like long enough to me.

reply to post by monetaryprotest



Yeah, they change all the time.

Just like large speculators, institutions etc..

IMO all this COT Data is pretty worthless and is only good after the fact. Do you really think that freely available information to all participants is going to make a difference? The answer is no again, unfortunately. If it was that easy everyone would be driving Maserati's and 911 Twin Turbo's.

reply to post by monetaryprotest


In the silver market, I don't think they do change that much. JP Morgan has had a short position equivalent to about 30% of global silver production since the collapse of Bear Stearns. That's a big short position, it's not changing so much that it's ridiculous (although I think a short position that big IS ridiculous). The "short term time window [I am] referencing" is over two years. Seems like long enough to me.


_____________

Show me a link that provides information to what you have stated above please.

If this is indeed the case you would have thought that JPM would have totally been liquidated as of right now seeing that Silver has climbed quite a bit since then. I do not believe this at all, where would you find this information?

[edit on 12-4-2010 by GreenBicMan]

I generally don't put much faith in technical analysis, but I think the OP has spotted a genuine trend. Gold may well fall sharply soon before climbing back up again. I doubt it will ever drop back to 400, though. That's like saying oil will eventually drop back to $25 a barrel. 900, maybe. In any event, this would definitely be a good time to sell and a bad time to buy. If you do want to short, I wouldn't do it on margin... just in case.

reply to post by DJW001


Yeah, I had a short from 1200 area and I thought it was going down under 1000 at least to 900. That would have been about 30%.

It really hasn't broken above where I stated to short at, but if you go a few posts up I waived the white flag early and am now bullish again due to repeated closes above the resistance it has displayed over the past 3 months etc.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Ted Butler's archive has a lot of information on the topic:
www.butlerresearch.com...

Here's a quote from his article "Answering the Skeptics" (I guess you would be in his target audience for that one):

"...as time has gone by, more are becoming convinced that silver is manipulated. Once you take the time to study the facts and come to understand the silver manipulation, you will never be able to lose that understanding. The only possible conversion is from being a skeptic into understanding the manipulation. This is strictly a one-way conversion process. The facts demand it. ...

Now we are confronted with two important and open CFTC matters; the public hearing on precious metals scheduled for March 25 and the ongoing and most recent silver investigation, commenced one and a half years ago. Both matters emanate from the same basic issue – JPMorgan’s manipulative and concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures contracts. For the hearing on precious metals, a key issue should be what possible bona fide hedge exemption from legitimate speculative position limits would allow a US bank to hold 25% to 30% of the world production of any commodity. For the current silver investigation, the only question is how can such a concentrated short position not be manipulative?"

news.silverseek.com...

What most people don't realize is it doesn't matter what the so called price of gold is relative to fiat currency. Gold and silver retains it's buying power despite the fluctuations of paper money. That is why it is a hedge against inflation and protection of wealth. If you're looking at gold as an investment for profit then you have missed the point entirely. Then again as a commodity Gold has out performed stocks 8 out of the last ten years.

Still when paper currencies are dust gold and silver will retain value as they always have for thousands of years. That is the point of getting them now. I will trade paper for gold and silver any day, it doesn't matter if it takes a few more pieces of paper one day or another!

Fiat currencies have ended badly every time in history, they last only about 40 years or so. We removed all gold backing for our currency in 1972 do the math, our fiat currency cycle is at it's end period! Fiat currencies are mathematically unsustainable there is no way around it. Get out and into hard assets gold and silver as much as possible while you can. Get food storage and preparations first though then buy gold and silver with what you have left.

[edit on 12-4-2010 by hawkiye]

reply to post by monetaryprotest


OK, but this again to me is all BS. Can you show me verifiable data that says JPM has a 30% total short on silver for this long of a time period?

This doesn't make sense. They would have been totally hammered on this as Silver has been quite the commodity as of late.

Plus I still do not understand how them being short in the face of a bull market is a case for manipulation.

In late 2008 Silver was trading at around $10.00 an OZ.

Now currently it is at $18.50 an OZ.

That is an 85% move to the UPSIDE. This banking conglomerate should have been liquidated if this really were the case IMO.


*Also why would JPM, who can wield 1000's of contracts at a time on any instrument focus totally on silver with that much of their net equity/available margin? Why not just run rampant on cocoa, sugar, and lean hog's futures, all which are MUCH MUCH more thinly traded where they could get away with murder? I am not saying they don't, I am just saying from a POV from someone looking to lay off risk it doesn't make sense.
Someone please prove me wrong.

[edit on 12-4-2010 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by GreenBicMan


You can find the data about the big commercial shorts on Butler's site. Mostly it comes from COT reports.

The explanation given for why they don't get wiped out when silver increases in price is that they have hedging long positions in the OTC market.

reply to post by monetaryprotest


What?

Yes this COT data is what I am saying is totally worthless, but explain what you are saying about hedging in OTC markets please. I do not understand this.

reply to post by monetaryprotest


I just took a look at that site btw.

Totally opinionated and it sounds like he has been burnt in metal futures and looking for a reason to blame someone other than himself. That is where most people get the inspiration for most of these self started websites. " I couldn't be wrong in forecasting futures so obviously it is manipulated." It is unfortunate that ego plays that big a role in people's trading. It is OK to be wrong with proper risk management.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


They have a massive short position in the futures market and a compensating long position in the unregulated over-the-counter derivatives market.

That's why the CFTC kept saying that JPM's concentrated short position isn't manipulative. For it to be manipulative, they say it would have to be "naked" shorting, but because there's a long position of comparable size in the OTC market, they say it isn't naked shorting and it isn't manipulative.

Here's a topical page about it from Market Skeptics:
www.marketskeptics.com...

Here's the Wall Street Journal's take on it:
online.wsj.com...

Actually, just to put it simply.

Can you:


1) Show me the actual net position JPM holds in the metals market. Absolutely no opinion. Factual real time statistics


2) Show me mathematically how JPM could get away with any of this without violating contract limit specifications (yes, the CFTC DOES CHECK THIS, and institutions do get caught).


3) Show me mathematically how JPM could benefit remotely by shorting silver futures contracts and then systematically laying off risk in spot market. This again avoiding contract limit specifications by CFTC.

__________________________


Everything else is "he said she said". You can't prove anything to anyone that knows what they are talking about with some of this garbage. I 100% do not deny that some "fishy" things take place in financial markets. Trust me, I have seen plenty, but this does not seem like something that would add up that actually makes sense to take on this much risk in a single security.

Thank you

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Yeah, there's a certain amount of that, but I don't think Butler or anybody else expects to make huge amounts of money on silver or gold until the manipulation that they're talking about comes to an end. It would be very foolish to bet that silver will go up when you believe there a nefarious and successful scheme that will prevent the price from going up.

reply to post by monetaryprotest


As long as they do not break contract limits, who cares what they do? The rules are the same for everyone, and if you break them you get a (meager) fine from CFTC, but you do get caught. If they are operating in those bounds I do not see the problem.

Please explain this in a fashion that actually makes sense. I think you are beginning to see that most of this is a fabrication of some sort.

reply to post by monetaryprotest


But listen man...


All the manipulation in the world can't stop a strong or weak dollar. There is over 7 trillion dollars exchanging hands during the day I believe in spot currency and USD relative strength or weakness makes up the majority of moves in dollar based commodities (such as silver and gold).

Very rarely do the 2 paths diverge, lately the dollar has gotten stronger in the face of basically flat commodities, but you can't break the bond between the two completely.

reply to post by monetaryprotest


Again, this is all going off COT data.

It does not list individual institutional holders (that I have seen as of yet).

Just make a habit of looking at this at the end of every week if you remember.

Take the side that the most people are on, holding positions till the next Friday.

You will be sorry that you did this, again, because if this freely given out information to all participants was actually "useable" information everyone would be driving that Ferrari. It really doesn't make sense man.

The reason this is the case (why you will lose) is because EVERYONE HAS THE SAME EDGE. Meaning the more participants in the same marketplace all going off the same useable data = less and less opportunity for equal weighted participants.

Just think about it for a few minutes and tell me if that does not make sense.