GOLD is due for about a 30% +/- CORRECTION, let me convince you in this thread

reply to post by OBE1


its getting innnnteresting....

I find the trade right now quite intriguing and i have $0.0000 on the line (as I usually do haha)

Rust never sleeps....

Gold's enemies multiplying

Nouriel Roubini has joined the gold naysayers, but Alec Hogg reckons he'd better beware.

Posted: Wednesday , 09 Dec 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

There's nothing like kicking a golden dog when it's down.

Just as the metal's recent surge runs out of steam - temporarily perhaps - new voices are being added to the recently silenced crowd which never misses an opportunity of dissing the "barbarous relic". Among the e-mails being circulated by the anti-gold lobby is an interview in late October by Nouriel Roubini, or Dr Doom as he prefers to be called, who told Yahoo Finance you'll never find him among bullion's supporters.

Full Text

Lets see what happens after tomorrows treasury auction.

reply to post by OBE1


Roubini is in on my trade?

Not liking it too much now haha, but I still gotta hold my position.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/81b6616bc11e.jpg[/atsimg]

I reversed the Fib ratios...charting the decline rather than the rally.

Today's candle represents a bit of indecision , and since healthy corrections [like the one at the end of October] have a tendency to retrace 50% of the move...we could see a reversal fairly soon.

In the interim , here's an interesting piece by Tim Iacono with some enlightening charts that bring perspective to the recent action in Gold.

The Recurring Gold “Bubble”

A lot of people are getting all worked up about the rising price of gold. Some say the current move has gone “parabolic” and that we’re in the midst of a “blow-off top” akin to the early 1980s peak that saw the gold price disappoint investors for years afterward....

Full Text

And this from today's Bloomberg: Americans Grow More Pessimistic on Economy, Nation’s Direction

Link

Nothing that a few more foreclosures won't fix...eh GBM ?

reply to post by OBE1


yeah about 20 more FC's should fix that cycle haha

but I do not think this move has gone "parabolic" yet like the last one he is referring to a long time ago, but now I see gold is up about 11 after the NY close so I really dont know.

what i do not like is other people with supposed "big" names jumping on my bandwagon, that usually means go the other way in reality, but this area to me is make or break and it looks like it held up pretty good today

reply to post by GreenBicMan

Yeah , Gold was absolutely raped in yesterday's access market...little different today. There's nothing conclusive in that last chart I posted , so it wouldn't surprise me to see GLD 106 - 107 as a bottom. I still believe the current weakness in Gold/broad market is related to the treasury auctions. It'a a pattern I've witnessed before.

** I don't always agree with you GBM...but you're definitely a good sport **


[edit on 9-12-2009 by OBE1]

reply to post by OBE1


yeah we will see what happens

like I said ideally it wouldnt come crashing back down and would take a slow drop, but I don't think that there is going to be anything not volitile about gold at these prices

Given today's fundamentals , a 30% correction would probaly require 6 - 8 months of lower highs/lower lows.

By the way , your signature seems kinda cruel. Why don't you think about replacing it ?

Maybe something like....

That's one thing the rest of the world loves about you Americans...so many of you know the price of everything...and the value of nothing. Good thing for you it's the land of the free.



[edit on 9-12-2009 by OBE1]

reply to post by OBE1


Cruel?

She told me I had a small "member". Although that post was taken out by a MOD and I think she's a troll anyway. If you havent read it you should its in the walmart jobs thread.

She also called me a mommas boy, which I guess I can live with since I do live with her currently haha.

Well I hgave to scan back to the chart to see how long the last correction took, but IMO if this does indeed play out like I think it possibly could I would call it about a quarter of a year, so thats pretty close to what you think I guess.

We know its almost impossible to call a top in anything (see this rally in mkt) but I think this is a good point for the correction on the weekly scale.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
She told me I had a small "member".

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
We know its almost impossible to call a top in anything (see this rally in mkt) but I think this is a good point for the correction on the weekly scale.

I don't expect TPTB to allow any downside follow-through in the broads until the banks have de-levered another 10 -15% , and are in a position to support the credit market/consumer. Until then any serious attempt to break below say DJ 10,000 will get stuffed imo...and when they do pull the plug , the market may continue to float as an inflation hedge.

Anyway , the echo in this thread is beginning to hurt my ears , and besides , I think you've garnered enough points off my personal pratt & prattle

See ya on the other side of this one

Originally posted by OBE1
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/81b6616bc11e.jpg[/atsimg]

I reversed the Fib ratios...charting the decline rather than the rally.

Today's candle represents a bit of indecision , and since healthy corrections [like the one at the end of October] have a tendency to retrace 50% of the move...we could see a reversal fairly soon.

In the interim , here's an interesting piece by Tim Iacono with some enlightening charts that bring perspective to the recent action in Gold.

The Recurring Gold “Bubble”


A lot of people are getting all worked up about the rising price of gold. Some say the current move has gone “parabolic” and that we’re in the midst of a “blow-off top” akin to the early 1980s peak that saw the gold price disappoint investors for years afterward....

Full Text

And this from today's Bloomberg: Americans Grow More Pessimistic on Economy, Nation’s Direction

Link

Nothing that a few more foreclosures won't fix...eh GBM ?

The 50 MA looking almost imminent now.

We have broken the "RSI" pattern gold has been forming on the daily scale

The 50 MA should be quite a battle though, and I do not see breaking this support very easily on the short term.

It is interesting because if you follow something like the UUP (bull dollar etf) it is showing a possible breakout signaling a hypothetical reverse in gold. Of course it does not need to unfold that way, but chances are it prob. will.

[edit on 11-12-2009 by GreenBicMan]

It is also interesting to note that over the past 7 or 8 days we have

1) Dollar up about 2%+ (IMO this is more Dubai related (flight to quality))

2) GOLD down about 8%+

3) Equities about even

Originally posted by OBE1

I don't expect TPTB to allow any downside follow-through in the broads until the banks have de-levered another 10 -15% , and are in a position to support the credit market/consumer.
Until then any serious attempt to break below say DJ 10,000 will get stuffed imo...

the same banks, financial firms, & others that are using the FED bailout monies for speculating & creating another bubble in equities, commodities, etc...for building up their treasuries,

are themselves selling their profitable positions in the Gold commodities they held... gold is not collapsing/retreating,

the naked shorters and the Legit. sellers locking in profits are the reason for the current correction ~ which should not go below $1,000oz.~

reply to post by St Udio


Why do you say not below 1000?

Is that based on anythng?

reply to post by GreenBicMan


my $1,000 is just a guesstimate, based on mine & others
most-likely scenario...

after all gold is not going to go to zero
so, it is going to have a rational value...& in the present set of conditions and events, A $1000oz price seems to be acceptable to many.

plus, i haven't heard any of the 3 Soverign nations which recently bought tonnes of (IMF) gold bullion at over $1,000oz, regretting their strategy...

reply to post by St Udio


I think you will have a chance to test that theory within the coming month. But dont worry, it just seems for now like a bigger buying opp.

Falling a little faster than I thought it would honestly. It gave up the 50 MA a lot easier than I predicted. Dollar of course gaining as well, impresed with the stock market as well.. Speaking of which I think (or thought) we would be in another breakout mode by now. Big continuation move coming up IMO in equities.

Originally posted by cloudbreak
I'd like it if your 1080-1090 projections were hit!

Gold may have bottomed on Dec 22nd with the Comex close of 1083.20. With respect to GLD , I expected a 106ish bottom...the low was 106.17 also on the 22nd.

So far , so good...a healthy +/- 10% correction. Hopefully Gold can back & fill for a few weeks before printing new highs. Another rapid spike in public sentiment/price would not be ideal imo...but I'm willing to suffer through it

Floor session Gold went 1139 bid today with the dollar green , however the USD COT structure has bearish tint to it.

Gold Rises Despite Dollar's Lift

Any fundamental...technical...or anecdotal commentary ATSers ?

2010: Giant Gathering Storm Clouds

Rather than make a series of predictions for the year ahead , Jim Willie offers 17 possible events ranging from the Saudi Royals fall..to..The real 911 story comes out...which is kind of surprising. For those unfamiliar with his story , JW was "approached by a shadowy figure" a few years ago while attending a metals conference in Germany , and explicitly warned-off from making further public disclosures regarding his personal investigation into the events surrounding Sept 11, 2001. He's remained tight-lipped on this topic ever since , and it was shortly after this frightening encounter that he left the US and now resides in Costa Rica.

Anyway...here's Jim's latest Gold chart Tuesday the 5th....

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/0ee816a7f1ac.jpg[/atsimg]

We got the bullish MACD crossover today , but a series of upcoming debt offerings beginning with the TIPS 10yr auction next Monday should provide enough manipulated headwind to prevent a runaway Gold train.

At this juncture...slow growth is good growth imo.

I keep thinking this thread is about the COLD being off by 30 degrees and yes it is.