posted on May, 21 2004 @ 09:49 PM
The drake equation is mostly a numbers game not something to actually go by.
The drake equation is based on a lot of approximation as well as assumptions and most of all just lack knowledge of the universe.
I think life, even intelligent life is possible. However humans are still basiclly stuck on earth and making estimates based on minimal knowledge of
the rest of the universe.
Rather than worrying about the chances of other intelligent life, i think one should look at the obsitcles.
For one they would need to become technological without being too competitive or they would blow themselves up. (Still waiting to see how humans are
on this) On the other hand if they aren't competitive enough they would not evolves intelectually to the point of looking for other life.
They would also need to develope protection against nature fast enough to avoid destruction.
If they evolved durring the age of a dying sun or just before a asteroid impact they may have been intelligent, but not fast enough.
The drake equation does not factor in many many things including the need for FAST development as well as driven.
But above all else the drake equation makes one HUGE leep. and that is the chance for life to become intelligent. How does one come to this number? On
earth the most successful species tend to be single celled and insects. Why would a jump be made to intelligence? On earth only a few dozen species
ever used tools and all but a few of them are now dead having not only missed out on space travel, but AGRICULTURE. Only humans have ever made the
leep to planeting crops and raising cattle...thats not a very good statistic for predicting intelligent life.
Fun though game, but not based on real statistics.
For now human knowledge is no where near good enough to even attempt that equation and get real numbers.