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Enthusiasm Gap Points To Crushing Democratic Defeat In 2010

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posted on Nov, 29 2009 @ 06:03 PM

By: David Dayen Saturday November 28, 2009 3:31 pm

A Research 2000/Daily Kos poll released on Friday gives the most direct evidence that Democrats face major trouble in the midterm elections because their base is completely unmotivated to vote.

Obama remains in positive territory at 53% approval in the poll, and both the Democratic Party and Democratic leaders outpoll their Republican counterparts. On the generic ballot test, Democrats still lead by 5 points, 37-32. However, the key statistic in the poll can be found here:

But a bigger indicator of peril comes from a new survey question added the DK tracking poll for the first time this week. The poll now includes a rather simple indicator of baseline voter enthusiasm for the year 2010. The question offered to respondents is a simple question about their intentions for 2010:

QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?

The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23

Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were three times more likely to say that they will “definitely not vote” in 2010 than are Republicans.

These numbers would probably be enough to destroy Democratic hopes in swing district and close Senate seats throughout the country. And the reasons are pretty clear; Democrats have simply not been given enough of a reason to come out and vote yet. The economy is still struggling, health care is moving at a glacial pace (and it’s one of the few major issues moving), the Obama Administration has alienated liberals on various key parts of the agenda, and there’s a persistent feeling that Wall Street has been bailed out at the expense of ordinary Americans.

You can account for some of this by citing the historic obstructionism of the GOP and the major hole in which the Administration found themselves on January 20, 2009. But you can’t account for all of it, and even if you could, it wouldn’t change the basic dynamic – the right has been worked into a frenzy hell-bent on defeating the man they are told is the second coming of Hitler, while the left is waiting for that long-promised “change” they can believe in.

Well they brought it on themselves. The Dembs had a perfect chance to actually change the flow in Washington by bringing the troops home. But they caved in to the Military/industrial complex; the big money war profiteers. The only thing that could stem the tide of a Demb disaster is a GOP sex scandle. It's happened in the past.

I'm going 3rd party in all national elections and voting for whom I feel is the best man or woman in state and local elections.

posted on Dec, 1 2009 @ 02:31 PM
I understand the progressives' disillusionment with the Obama administration as it currently stands. What they don't seem to understand is that a president can't change the entire political structure and/or the entire culture in Washington in 10 months. And most of them have not bothered to investigate all of the measures Obama has already taken which are positive from their perspective.

I'm not happy with the increased troops in Afghanistan, but I'm not privy to all the information available to the Commander in Chief and some of Congress. The surge seems foolish, but I'm not a general, so I'll wait to hear what Obama has to say tonight. I will also be very unhappy if the Health Care bill that passes doesn't include a public option, but I don't think putting Republicans in office is going to improve anything.

The trouble is, if the Democrats and progressives desert Obama in 2010, we are going to get an extremely conservative Congress that will certainly impede any efforts of the administration or the people to effect change. It will be biting off their noses to spite their faces.

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