What's the probability of extraterrestrial life?

reply to post by DoomsdayRex




here let me make it easy for you

Human1 : Is there life in space
Human2 : Nope none god made us
Human3 : Yep there is life in space "us lot"
Human4 : Life is in space but not visiting us "way to big ect"
Human5 : you guys are nuts!!! and who cares???
Human6 : No offence guys but if you do any math you are all kinda asking the same question..
Human7 : huh?
Human8 : what has that got to do with life in space,,

Me : The one who is asking should know the answer all ready as the probibilty of you to ask is more than the outcome!

or you can use god as a defenc, many people do this just like when they said the world was flat.

We can not have aliens for 2 reasons

God
Power

Now if I was an alien looking down on earth i would be pretty amazed my self to see humans using MONEY for a way to CONNECT with each other.. 2nd i would be AMAZED how easy it is they go to WAR with each other even tho they are the same RACE..

If you look at nature one would get a HINT that the universe we are in is just a mirco version of the universe as a whole..

We should be LUCKY no space aliens have came to EAT US yet

and like someone said, do you really think its a good idea to broadcast our location into space? when we have NO clue what is out there??

all aliens are loving? yep sure and so was god but yet he made the devil?

ironic that people confuse so much stuff in a missmash of whats ifs and buts

and forget the ifs and buts are the very reason they are here.. always to focus upon the answer and never the question.

tut tut

Yes, you can input the new data into the Drak Equation.

N = The number of communicative civilizations
R* = The rate of formation of suitable stars (stars such as our Sun)
fp = The fraction of those stars with planets.
ne = The number of Earth-like worlds per planetary system (this increases because there billions of earth like planets in the Milky Way)
fl = The fraction of those Earth-like planets where life actually develops (this number increases because of liquid water on the moon and Mars and sign of microbial life on Mars. This also increases because of extremophiles).
fi = The fraction of life sites where intelligence develops
fc = The fraction of communicative planets (those on which electromagnetic communications technology develops and we can can also look at other forms of detection)
L = The "lifetime" of communicating civilizations

Drake's equation is a helpful tool to look at the probability of extraterrestrial life based on new discoveries.

We can also weigh these things within reason. We do this everyday and in all walks of life.

What explanation is most likely or less likely based on the available evidence when it comes to abduction cases, mass sightings, eyewitness accounts, video, pictures, trace evidence, radar reports and more.

Not what's possible but what's the most probable answer based on the available evidence.

Some of these cases have been around and have been investigated for years.

Now I have made the pseudoskeptic doomsday look silly before where he had to lie and make up things.

I'm trying not to turn this into a debate between pseudoskeptics and the evidence. I'm just trying to debate the probability of extraterrestrial life based on the available evidence.

Doomsday, I ask you nicely not to try and turn this thread into a silly debate about your pseudoskepticism. We have did this in other threads and I know your still upset because of the egg on your face when you got caught lying in the other thread. So let people debate the issue in peace. You have made your opinion known and if you think it's impossible then you said your peace and there's no need to keep blathering on.

reply to post by jimmyx


I love a post as such as yours for one reason.

People for get that they are DOING the math!!!

I mean without US there ARE NO CALCULATIONS TO BE MADE!!

They in fact think its a RIGHT to be human!!! LOL and that its NORMAL to live in a universe with NO end and the very fact they PRESUME we are the ONLY beings with BRAINS

I guess this lot do not like nature? I mean Kung Fu comes from nature?
Flying Planes comes from nature?

Everything if not most of the things humans do HAVE COME from NATURE

we Look at it and replicate it .. try to understand it but here is the cracker

IT MADE US!!!

the difference with humans is we are BEING BLINDED by our own fellow humans to be CONTROLLED

bring it on NWO because the power they have comes from STUPID PEOPLE

who do and think what they are told for fear of not being "normal"

what is normal? please? this?

Waiting for god to come back and save you from your self?

2000 years we waited you think by now this lot would have got the HINT

he is not coming back because HE or whoever NEVER CAME in the first place.. and if it was aliens who made man? SO WAT

about time this race grew up and got some balls be for we go the way of T-REX

FOLLISLED ect

Originally posted by Matrix Rising
reply to post by DoomsdayRex

 

You try to bring your pseudoskeptic nonsense onto every thread.

People on this thread have been and are discussing the probability of extraterrestrial life. It has been a very good discussion.

If you don't think weighing probabilities s possible and you want to live in your pseudoskeptic fantasy land, that's fine. Don't try to hijack the thread with your pseudoskeptic nonsense.

I suppose that's the only way pseudoskeptics can or want to think i'm afraid.
Maybe afraid someone will think they are crazy or something,or to think they are smarter and can think with more logic than someone who doesn't think like them.
While i see more logic in your replies than i see in theirs.


To answer your question.
Considering the evidence i saw over the years on this site and elsewhere.
And also hearing it first hand from others in my personal life,i think the probability of extraterrestrial life is close to a 100%.

"Doomsday Rex" has a point. Dr. Frank Drake himself is not confident that the variables for his equation can be properly filled in based on what we know. His equation is an interesting tool for the sake of the debate, but it can't be properly calculated because most of the variables require us to take "wild guesses" based on incomplete understanding of those variables. Once you take these wild guesses, the equation becomes statistically meaningless (albeit still worthy for fueling discussion).

My own personal opinion is that life MUST exist elsewhere in the universe, and most likely within our own galaxy. I base that on the shear number of stars (and probably planets) in the universe and what I know about extremophile life on Earth.

HOWEVER, that's just my opinion, and I have no real evidence of this.

[edit on 11/28/2009 by Soylent Green Is People]

reply to post by Soylent Green Is People


This is the beauty of the equation. Of course the variables will change as knowledge increases. Nobody said we were trying to get an absolute number. We are just discussing the probabilities based on the available evidence through math and reason.

We can look at the available evidence and weigh it as to what's the most likely explanation based on abduction cases, radar reports, mass sightings, trace evidence, videos, pictures and more.

reply to post by Soylent Green Is People


You dont need evidence!!!

You are here?? is that not enough? hello? look up?

for you to BE here mathmaticaly is MORE than enough!! addimiting it in front of your pears who base there entire LIFE and socitety on GOD is problem.

like when people talked about the earth NOT being the center of the know universe?

Who was the people saying YES it is THE CHURCH

why? because the one thing they hate more than anything is a person with MIND to think for them self

Let me remind you if "evolution" is correct.. then we as humans are being controlled

You are FREE to do ANYTHING .. let me state this again

YOU ARE FREE AS A HUMAN NOT TO PAY ANY TAX

your choice? be a sheep? or question why it is we live this way..

had to make correction

[edit on 28-11-2009 by 13579]

Just wanted to add this listen close to what they say.. by the way this was a kids programm..

very telling



[edit on 28-11-2009 by 13579]

That video in OP's post made me mad. It seems like everything cool will be coming out "in about 100 years." It seems like everything that I want to happen will be happening long after I'm dead.

Probability of any form of organic life in our galaxy/universe?
100%

Probability of intelligent life in our galaxy/universe?
99.999999%
The small chance of their not being life comes from the idea that all UFO's are hoaxes/hallucinations. If intelligence is indeed a rarity, then there is always the chance that when it does sprout up, it is destroyed either by themselves, or by some natural cataclysm that unfolds before they have the power to stop it.

If their is intelligent life that has conquered space...
Probability that they know of our existence? 100%. Logically, if they have conquered space, they will have developed technologies to find life anywhere they want to.

I personally believe they've been visiting earth forever, because of its beauty and because of us; not because we are special, but because we are intelligent. Like human's interests in monkeys. Have you ever watched the great apes in a zoo? Amazing.

They had note of us probably as a simple curiosity, until 1945 hit and we detonated the nuke. Then things changed; we have probably been of great interest ever since.

Originally posted by Matrix Rising
Yes, you can input the new data into the Drake Equation.

No one is saying you cannot input new data into the Drake Equation. What we are saying is that many of the factors we simply cannot know yet beyond conjecture.

Originally posted by Matrix Rising
Drake's equation is a helpful tool to look at the probability of extraterrestrial life based on new discoveries.

It was never intended to be. It is not a law or even a theory. It is a tool for debate. Nothing more. You have ignored this and continue to act as it is something more...

The real value of the Drake Equation is not in the answer itself, but the questions that are prompted when attempting to come up with an answer. Obviously there is a tremendous amount of guess work involved when filling in the variables.

Originally posted by Matrix Rising
We can also weigh these things within reason. We do this everyday and in all walks of life. Not what's possible but what's the most probable answer based on the available evidence.

Some of these factors we cannot weigh with any realistic eye towards reason, but rather conjecture. It varies based on the person working the equation, that is why you can get a number from single digits to hundreds of thousands. Because we do not know. That is why there is no one true answer for the equation.

Originally posted by Matrix Rising
Now I have made the pseudoskeptic doomsday look silly before where he had to lie and make up things.

I did not make a single thing up. Either have a reasonable, rational discussion, and lose the ad hominems, or I will have to ask a mod to step in.

Originally posted by Matrix Rising
Doomsday, I ask you nicely not to try and turn this thread into a silly debate about your pseudoskepticism.

Then stop the ad hominems. Stop the lies. You cannot point to one single place I have lied. In fact, as previous threads show, you are the liar here, Matrix Rising. Please, if I have made one thing up or have lied about anything, please point to where I have done so. Otherwise, stop the accusations, stop the ad hominems and have a civil debate.

Addendum...
Matrix Rising accuses me of being a pseudoskeptic and a liar in every thread he sees me in. So we're settling this. The only liar here is Matrix Rising. This is a guy who creates a thread titled What's the evidence against extraterrestrials and or extraterrestrial visitation? , then claims he never asked for evidence against extraterrestrials, then when I call him on it accuses me of being a liar and making things up. Review the thread to see the full story. He will claim he exposed me making things up, but as anyone will be able to see, I never made a single thing up. He lied to get out of another lie.

Matrix Rising is a liar and not an honest debater. He cannot have a civil discussion and resorts to ad hominems any time someone has the slightest disagreement.

[edit on 28-11-2009 by DoomsdayRex]

You can't estimate probability based on a sample of one item.

The best we can do is to say that the possibility of life in this Universe is non-zero, because we are here. We have no way of saying whether we are unique. My guess is that the conditions for life and for the development of technology are met in many places throughout the Universe, but it's a guess. Others guess, with equal validity, that there is no other case of intelligent life in the Universe.

Furher, I'd like to know where Matrix Rising gets off calling me a pseudoskeptic for pointing out the acknowledged short comings of the equation, acknowledged by the creator no-less and criticisms of the equation that have existed since the day Drake came up with it. How does that make me a pseudoskeptic?

Doomsday:

No one is saying you cannot input new data into the Drake Equation. What we are saying is that many of the factors we simply cannot know yet beyond conjecture.

Yes you can know some of these things beyond conjecture based on recent discoveries. This was the whole point. That you can input new data based on new discoveries. Again, your debating a point just to make your pseudoskeptic opinion known. I have already listed the evidence that we know beyond conjecture.

It was never intended to be. It is not a law or even a theory. It is a tool for debate. Nothing more. You have ignored this and continue to act as it is something more...

Again you lie. I never said anything about Drake equation being law. Please quote me where I said Drake equation is law.

You do this silly nonsense in every thread you get on. You debate against a point that was never made.

ome of these factors we cannot weigh with any realistic eye towards reason, but rather conjecture. It varies based on the person working the equation, that is why you can get a number from single digits to hundreds of thousands. Because we do not know. That is why there is no one true answer for the equation.

Again, you don't know what your talking about.This has nothing to do with an equation. You can weigh what's most likely and what's less likely based on the available evidence. People do it in all walks of life.

Many of these cases have been investigated for years and based on the available evidence you can draw a conclusion as to what's most likely and what's less likely.

You have been caught lying and reading into things before. You do it all the time. Like I never claimed Drake's equation was a law but this is what you are debating against.

You have made your feelings known. You don't think you can weigh the probababilities. Other folks don't feel the same.

Now can we please debate the subject at hand and not your pseudoskepticism.

If uou don't feel you can weigh the probabilities and you said that, then what are you debating?

[edit on 28-11-2009 by Matrix Rising]

reply to post by DoomsdayRex

That is why there is no one true answer for the equation.

well that is because the equation it self was wrong?

It is based upon APPLIED math not REAL Math..

here

1+1 = 2 = applied math
1+1 = 3 = you doing math

if one is to understand that the PROMBLEM is MATH when dealing with such a subject all becomes clear

What is the probability of life OUTside of planet earth

simple answer is 1 over 0

Because YOU are ASKING

do you not understand that part of the equation??

For YOU to even ASK why or even THINK of aliens IS MORE than the chances of a HUGE fireball of marshmellow hitting earth?

We ARE the reason for EVERYTHING to happen because WE are EFFECTING the VERY outcome of EVERTHING by BEING HERE

we create it by being here... math shows us that in EVERY CASE you care to bother to study.

why do you think we have 2 legs and 2 arms? because it looks pretty?

or is it the fact we have them because it has RULES called ORDER

and from this ORDER came LIFE ITS SELF and its not exscusive to HUMANS

look at a tree or a cat? do they ask WHY they are here? do they THINK you are ALIEN?

what makes YOU special? NOTHING that is what.. and thinking we are alone in the universe is the very same reason you watch tv all day use the internet and use money//

LACK OF BRAINS and a willingness to accept you just like me are no more special than a ROCK...

god made rocks and ME and YOU

get with the programm kiddo.... and you wonder why we have a NWO maybe its to keep the crazy ones in ORDER..

lion / gizel

kiss kiss ; )

reply to post by Matrix Rising


If it's not a law, then it's only conjecture.

You can either treat it as a law and call it a law (which it is not) or you can treat it as conjecture and it can be dismissed or embraced as such. You can't have it both ways.

(And for the record, Matrix, you fired the first volley at Rex, and attacked him personally. That's not cool.)

reply to post by Matrix Rising


ET's are demons... The God of the bible created the universe. Case closed.

There are more stars in our galaxy alone than all the grains of sand on the planet Earth. I don't do math.

WG3

reply to post by Israel Versus Iran


yeah sure they are and you as born a sinner so best you repent..

give me a stick and ill give a carrot...

reply to post by waveguide3


hm.. i have doubts . Let say you have 10 000 grains of sand in one killo. It means that 200 000 000 000 grains (repersenting the number of stars in the Milky Way)would make 20 000 tones of sand. Not quite all the sand on the Earth.

[edit on 28-11-2009 by Romanian]

reply to post by Israel Versus Iran


well, can you spuport that with any evidence? I guess people should STOP trying to fit God in a box, it is really not us who can elect what God can or cannot do.