Dubai is just a harbinger of things to come for sovereign debt

I couldn't agree more with this article................



blogs.telegraph.co.uk...


I was wondering why people were getting so bent over this. After all 80 Billion isn't much considering the amounts of trillion the major global nations have been printing out of thin air. I think the writing is on the wall here and it is saying Dubai is not the going to be the last!!!

Originally posted by ARNOMANNN

I couldn't agree more with this article................



blogs.telegraph.co.uk...


I was wondering why people were getting so bent over this. After all 80 Billion isn't much considering the amounts of trillion the major global nations have been printing out of thin air. I think the writing is on the wall here and it is saying Dubai is not the going to be the last!!!

I didn't know this was happening until today but I did know that Dubai among the other nations where having trouble with their finances. I think this is more of a problem that is being acknowledged. If you go to CNBC, they are being highly optimistic about this default (thats exactly what it is). They say that this 80 to 90 billion dollar problem is controlled and won't be a problem, thats what they where saying about the sub-prime meltdown when it got started. That started a chain of events that couldn't be seen. This will cause a chain also, for one I don't believe it's only 80 to 90 billion dollars. If you followed Dubai and it's excesses and the man made Islands and such and the attempt to build the biggest office building in the world, you would know the amount of money needed for all of that would be closer to 500 billion dollars. Two, I will use an example. If you, british bank or american bank XYZ decide to loan big money to a sovereign country most of the time the country sells you their treasury bond or bond of some type and the country is responsible for paying the rates on the bond for the amount of time agreed upon. So lets say XYZ bank you buy 1 billion dollars of Dubai bonds at 3 percent (being conservative) for 5 years. The country will pay on that bond for use of that money and then they pay back the billion dollars and whatever fees. So if Dubai defaults on their bonds (missing a payment or changing the terms without an agreement) then you money from your bank may never see it's money or if it does it wouldn't be for some years.

So XYZ bank your out 1 billion dollars for the immediate future and possibly longer, and on top of that your not getting your monthly or quarterly payment. So depending on how your accounting is set up you may accounted for that billion dollars still being in your possession because of the optimistic projection of getting the payments and principle back. And by you accounting for it and the payments being on your books you being a bank may have loaned out by 7 or 19 or whatever times through fractional banking. So you XYZ bank may have guaranteed up to 19 times that billion dollars plus payments you don't have to other investment vehicles (derivatives, lines of credit contracted for, insurance, etc. etc.). And that doesn't even take into account the individuals that received the money doing the same thing in order to make money and increase their balance sheet. So you see the links and subtle links to that 1 billion dollars aren't seen or talked about to the public because people would say no more to fractional lending or derivatives (which many banks make their money).

Finally it has to do with surrounding the wagons. You see all the con men know the same scam in the banking system, they will wait and see how things shake out before they will lend or support anybody. Because they see a rich Arab oil kingdom go essentially broke tells many in the game that many many banks and institutions where handling hot money in that area and have gotten burned. They will wait it out and see where the bodies will float up. If you don't believe me, look at those big banks that failed last year after the CEO of the bank was saying everything was alright and there was nothing to worry about and then Sunday night/Monday morning before the markets open news comes out that it has been taken over or has gone bankrupt. You don't have a billion dollars and I don't have a billion dollars, who has that money are govt. and other institutions. And that is why private money isn't bailing out nothing, because as I stated before the con men and the crooks are having to go to other con men and crooks and sell them the same scam paper in order to hand their problems off, and nobody is biting.

Some very good points there....Lots of reading but you have to read up on this to stay informed...Thanks for the input!!!!

Originally posted by ARNOMANNN

I couldn't agree more with this article................



blogs.telegraph.co.uk...


I was wondering why people were getting so bent over this. After all 80 Billion isn't much considering the amounts of trillion the major global nations have been printing out of thin air. I think the writing is on the wall here and it is saying Dubai is not the going to be the last!!!

ARNOMANNN

Hi:

What is unknown right now is the contagion effect when and if this Corp defaults on their debt - namely, the spin-off effects.

The European banks are are obviously the the main target here right now, but what will be the spin off effects to American banks? What are the unreported derivatives in place that might get triggered?