It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Thank you.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008.
[doc_id=864]
[English]
Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.
Orographic cloud in a GCM: the missing cirrus
Journal Climate Dynamics
Publisher Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
ISSN 0930-7575 (Print) 1432-0894 (Online)
Issue Volume 24, Numbers 7-8 / June, 2005
DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0020-9
Pages 771-780
Subject Collection Earth and Environmental Science
SpringerLink Date Monday, May 02, 2005
PDF (702.7 KB)HTMLFree Preview
Orographic cloud in a GCM: the missing cirrus
S. M. Dean1 , B. N. Lawrence2, R. G. Grainger1 and D. N. Heuff3
(1) Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK
(2) British Atmospheric Data Centre, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Oxfordshire, UK
(3) Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Received: 13 September 2004 Accepted: 25 February 2005 Published online: 27 April 2005
Abstract Observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatalogy Project (ISCCP) are used to demonstrate that the 19-level HadAM3 version of the United Kingdom Met Office Unified Model does not simulate sufficient high cloud over land. By using low-altitude winds, from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Re-Analysis from 1979 to 1994 (ERA-15) to predict the areas of maximum likelihood of orographic wave generation, it is shown that much of the deficiency is likely to be due to the lack of a representation of the orographic cirrus generated by sub-grid scale orography. It is probable that this is a problem in most GCMs.
The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville.
Instead of creating more clouds, individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds, says Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist in UAHuntsville's Earth System Science Center.
That was not what he expected to find.
"All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds, which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases," he said. "That amplification is a positive feedback. What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback. As the tropical atmosphere warms, cirrus clouds decrease. That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space."
The results of this research were published today in the American Geophysical Union's "Geophysical Research Letters" on-line edition. The paper was co-authored by UAHuntsville's Dr. John R. Christy and Dr. W. Danny Braswell, and Dr. Justin Hnilo of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA.
Originally posted by john124
I intend to join friends who are associated with "Friends of the Earth". I disagree with those who are associated with greenpeace who climb on top of government buildings to make a point, as it's only detrimental to the cause, and I prefer that people educate themselves with the science, rather than instead provoke an entirely emotional response from people, so the people can hopefully make up their own minds correctly.
Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
reply to post by shamhat
The real problems are not being tackled like you said, instead you have die hard people who have made Global Warming their religion, and claim "it is all the fault of the western world",
well sorry to say that most of the plastic which is found in the oceans has been thrown into rivers by thrid world nations like India, Mexico, CHina, Russia, etc, etc,
yet these countries want for the western world to pay for the problems they created, meanwhile the world is in an economic crisis. The war is going to start for all this ordering of some countries who want to get paid for the disasters they have caused, and they want to tax to death the rest of the world after they have taxed and subjugated their people...
Originally posted by shamhat
Your photos quite brilliantly demonstrate the greatest threat, currently, to our healthy and continued existence on this planet, the waste that we produce and how we dispose of it.
..........
Originally posted by shamhat
....................
Dhavari is one of the most densely populated places on the planet and was, according to Wikipedia, up until this year, the worst slum in the world. I should imagine, having seen Slum Dog Millionaire, and looked at your pictures, that no-one chooses to live there. The people in those slums have not benefitted from the industrialisation that has occurred in their country over the past two centuries, and they, no more than you and I, should be penalised for it.
That manufacturers, importers and exporters of mass produced goods, and the petro-chemical industries are doing nothing to help us is a real problem and one that will lead to all of us being penalised financially. .
.............
Originally posted by shamhat
The only difference in our arguments is that I know that the countries that you cite are never going to agree to it as they have no way of meeting those targets, they are economically incapable of doing so. We on the other hand have no such excuse and could direct more resources to helping others to solve their environmental problems.
.....................
Indian innovation thriving despite downturn and terrorism
MUMBAI, India – A grueling 20-hour flight from Silicon Valley, India’s megacity of Slumdog Millionaire fame seems far removed from the U.S. economic meltdown. Shoppers and diners fill stores and restaurants in the upscale Phoenix Mills shopping center and the trendy SoMo (South of Bombay) neighborhood.
Ritzy hotels are filled with business people and investors betting on the economic future of India. And nearly three months after the terrorists’ attack that led to 188 deaths here, locals and tourists still flock to the imposing Gateway of India monument and the Taj Mahal Palace and Tower, which is open but surrounded by heavy, armed security who eye every visitor –- especially a foreign journalist shouldering a heavy black laptop bag.
Why China is thriving despite the downturn
ROSS GITTINS
IF YOU want a lead on how the world economy is affecting our economy, take my tip: forget theUnited States and study China.
That's not easy, however, because the Chinese publish much less information about their economy and some of what they do publish isn't reliable.
But it's clear from the Reserve Bank's latest statement on monetary policy that it is putting a lot of effort into monitoring the Chinese economy.
China Boosts Military Spending
Senior U.S. Official Presses Beijing to Clarify 'Plans and Intentions'
By Edward Cody
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, March 5, 2007
BEIJING, March 5 -- China announced Sunday that it will increase military spending at a sharply higher rate this year, budgeting a rise of nearly 18 percent, and a senior U.S. official immediately called for clarity on the planned expenditures.
China's Military Budget Reported at $59 Billion
Sharp Buildup Raises Concern in U.S.
By Jill Drew
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
BEIJING, March 4 -- China announced Tuesday that it will again sharply increase its military spending this year, budgeting a 17.6 percent rise that is roughly equal to last year's increase.
Disclosure of plans for a $59 billion outlay in 2008 followed a Pentagon report Monday that raised questions about China's rapidly increasing military budget, and came less than three weeks before a presidential election in Taiwan, the self-governed island over which China claims sovereignty.
China admits to building up stockpile of gold
Alfred Cang and Tom Miles, Reuters
Published: Friday, April 24, 2009
SHANGHAI/BEIJING - China revealed on Friday that it had secretly raised its gold reserves by three-quarters since 2003, increasing its holdings to 1,054 tonnes - or a pot worth about US$30.9-billion - and confirming years of speculation it had been buying.
Why China wants to buy $93 billion worth of gold
2009-03-01 15:15:00
BEIJING: Chinese investors beware! Don’t get trapped in the glitter of gold. In China, investors have been rushing to gold following the crash of global markets.
But, the investment in gold is also riddled with risk and this is a critical time now where investors should be cautious with their gold investment.
Gold soars after India's buying spree
Analysts urge calm as price rockets to all-time high
By JOHN MORRISSY, Canwest News ServiceNovember 4, 2009
Indias purchase of 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund sent the precious metals price to a record high yesterday, but fears that the move indicates lurking inflation or is a sign of further weakness in the United States dollar are misplaced, analysts say.
Russia's Central Bank Plans To Continue Buying Gold - Reuters
Tue, Feb 17 2009, 04:45 GMT
Russias Central Bank Plans To Continue Buying Gold - Reuters
Russias gold and foreign exchange reserves were at about $385 billion Feb. 15, compared with $383.5 billion Feb. 6, Reuters reported, citing an interview Monday with Alexei Ulyukayev, first deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia.
China Wants a New Global Reserve Currency
Zhou Xiaochuan Asks for an International Currency Other than USD
Calls are getting louder to create a new global reserve currency in the current financial crisis which began in 2007 with the crisis of sub-prime mortgages in the United States.
Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin calls for end of dollar stranglehold
Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin has called for concerted action to break the stranglehold of the US dollar and create a new global structure of regional powers.
MARCH 24, 2009 China Takes Aim at Dollar
BEIJING -- China called for the creation of a new currency to eventually replace the dollar as the world's standard, proposing a sweeping overhaul of global finance that reflects developing nations' growing unhappiness with the U.S. role in the world economy.
The unusual proposal, made by central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan in an essay released Monday in Beijing, is part of Chinas increasingly assertive approach to shaping the global response to the financial crisis.
Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
What?..... Are you not aware that the western world is in an economic crisis?... Are you not aware that countries like China are thriving meanwhile the western world is not thriving?....
Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
Ritzy hotels are filled with business people and investors betting on the economic future of India. And nearly three months after the terrorists’ attack that led to 188 deaths here, locals and tourists still flock to the imposing Gateway of India monument and the Taj Mahal Palace and Tower, which is open but surrounded by heavy, armed security who eye every visitor –- especially a foreign journalist shouldering a heavy black laptop bag.
Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
These countries are THRIVING, they have been buying billions of dollars worth of gold, and they have increased to more than doubled their spending in military...
These countries ARE MORE THAN CAPABLE to take care of the mess THEY created in their own nations, but they don't want to. Instead they blame the western world and want to put us down the drain and demand for the western world to pay them more money, and to give them more technology...
Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
These countries are counting on gullible people like yourself to further put the western world into a deeper depression meanwhile they make more money, meanwhile they redistribute wealth to the nations that are THRIVING at the expense of the western nations that are in an economic depression....