Abiotic or non-abiotic doesn't really matter (I tend to think non-abiotic however). Whatever the mechanism for geologically producing oil it is
slower than our demand for oil by a huge magnitude.
The Russians are peaking as the world peaks.
Russia Oil Output Expected to Drop
MOSCOW -- Russian oil output has risen this year, against expectations, but industry participants and analysts say the world's biggest energy
supplier faces an inevitable decline in production.
Russian oil firms have cut investment programs following a drop in crude prices from last year's record highs, but have surprised many by squeezing
more hydrocarbons than expected out of maturing fields in Siberia.
But this may prove unsustainable, with a steep drop in drilling this year pointing to lower production ahead, industry observers say. Dwindling output
in Russia, which pumps about 20% of the oil produced by countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, could buoy global
prices.
"Further oil-output growth will be extremely challenging in Russia," said Oswald Clint, an analyst at Bernstein Research in London. He estimates
exploration drilling fell by more than 40% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year, based on statistics from oil-field
service companies and independent energy consultancies.
Predictions of a decline in Russia's oil production come against a backdrop of rising output this year. In total, Russian oil producers pumped 77,000
barrels a day, or 0.8%, more in the first seven months of the year than in the same period of 2008.
Six new Russian fields launched late last year produced a combined 400,000 barrels a day, helping lift total volume. Among the new fields are South
Khylchuyu in the Arctic north of Russia, operated by OAO Lukoil; TNK-BP Ltd.'s Uvat and Verkhnechonskoye fields; and OAO Surgutneftegaz's Talakan
field in eastern Siberia.
But the new fields have already reached peak capacity and are now starting to slowly decline, according to an executive at a major oil-field services
company.
"Exploration activity is sliding and operators will struggle to keep production levels up," said the executive, who asked not to be named.
