Originally posted by willow1d
Here is something that is indeed extremely important to the Climate Summit in Copenhagen and the Cap & Trade bill.
Why?
Even at the current rate we'll see rapid climate change, with or without failure of ocean and terrestrial sinks. Just even more rapid with
failure.
It shows that the balance of absorbed CO2 in the air/earth hasn't changed since 1850, the beginning of the industrialized age. So it seems
that the earth can absorb a lot more than the climate change computerized models claim. Who ya gonna believe, hard facts or a computer
simulation?'
Doesn't actually show that. It shows that since 1850 the absorption ability of sinks hasn't changed. It's only very recently that a small number of
studies have suggested reductions. What the situation is in 50 years is still up in the air.
This article doesn't even go there.
For example, the study the author is actually criticising is Canadell et al (2007). In their paper they show an increase in Airborne Fraction (AF) of
0.25% per year (+/- 0.21%) at only a probability of .89 (11% of false positive). Using the error range for confidence intervals, the actual figure
very likely lies between +0.04 to +0.46% per year increases in AF.
In Knorr's paper he finds 0.7% (+/- 1.4%), Again, using error bars the confidence interval would be -0.7% to 2.1%. Due to the high error range, this
data says probably no difference as it covers 0.
But the two datasets overlap considerably. The issue with Knorr's article is the very large uncertainty in the data (error) which covers negative to
positive trends, but still overlaps with Canadell's data.
ABE: I made a pretty picture for all y'all:
Canadell's article is freely available on the PNAS website, worth a read. As it clearly points out that most models that even include variations in
sink activity involve a negative trend in AF during the 20th century, and only turn positive during the 21st century.
And we don't really know for certain that will not be the case. The Knorr article doesn't even go there, being solely based on the carbon cycle in
the past. Moreover, his data covers the potential for a large positive trend, and even has a mean which is positive (increasing AF).
This throws a monkey wrench into formulas that they have been using to come up with caps on emissions. This should be something that causes a
rethinking and rewriting of the treaties/bills that they are wanting to be approved. Like maybe they should drop this nonsense!
Of course. One study that says absorption by sinks in the recent past might not have altered, even though few have suggested it has (two/three), is
just going to magic away our emissions, their accumulation, their future effects, and any potential future changes in the carbon cycle, lol.
The responses to this study are actually very funny. If someone presented a polka-dot banana and said it clashed with AGW, a similar set of responses
would likely appear. This paper has no grand impact on AGW, just raises further questions about the future status of the carbon cycle.
[edit on 12-11-2009 by melatonin]