Noaa: Third Coldest October on record...

reply to post by voodmon


Yeah ok whatever

Im beginning to run out of troll food here, so if you have a point to make or even a contribution to the OPs thread, which isnt incoherent babbling or outrageous assumptions...make it already

Please stick to the topic at hand.

Thank you in advance.

reply to post by plumranch

Global Cooling Chills Summer 2009

One would be foolish to challenge space-borne satellites that gauge Earth’s mean temperatures — cold, hot, and average. Here again, evidence of global cooling piles up like snow drifts.

Oh geez, no.

That's a dreadful representation of the data. The creator has just thrown a polynomial trend on the data, lol.

ABE: same dataset (UAH) with 12 month running means, 5 year running means, and linear trend.



[edit on 10-11-2009 by melatonin]

Originally posted by plumranch

It's probably too early to make any overall conclusions based on a few month's weather

Ya think? The issue is CLIMATE, not weather.

but at least we can put global warming on the shelf for a while

In what way?

Record breaking weather swings in Florida

Temperature Statistics in Western Australia including October 2009

As the average temperature goes up, LOCAL weather gets more unpredictable, not only record highs but also record lows are recorded as the pendulum swings wider. Droughts and floods increase in severity and frequency.

reply to post by melatonin


Or just look at the UAH raw data since 1978:

reply to post by plumranch


Thats bizzare

Its kind of interesting to see that the CO2 output hasnt dramatically changed as you would have expected

reply to post by rnaa


check out the map here: www.abovetopsecret.com...

Florida was the only state to have an above normal temperature average in October. It was the sixth consecutive month that the Florida's temperature was above normal, resulting in the third warmest such period (May-October).

Australia is currently having increased temperatures related to El Nino. These should persist into 2010.

reply to post by OzWeatherman

Its kind of interesting to see that the CO2 output hasnt dramatically changed as you would have expected

The CO2 curve is amazingly stable but slowly rising. The only way to dramatically affect CO2 is to shut down the activities of mankind, suddenly switch to nuclear power, zero point, 100% green power, all those impossible things!

Originally posted by plumranch
reply to post by rnaa

 

check out the map here: www.abovetopsecret.com...

Florida was the only state to have an above normal temperature average in October. It was the sixth consecutive month that the Florida's temperature was above normal, resulting in the third warmest such period (May-October).

Australia is currently having increased temperatures related to El Nino. These should persist into 2010.

Yes. And your point is?

From the conclusion in the paper I posted about WA temperature change:

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has analysed temperature trends over the past 100 years.

Since 1910, the Bureau estimates that average mean minimum temperatures in Western Australia have risen almost 1 degree C (.05-.2 degrees C per decade) while average mean maximum temperatures have risen by about .7 degrees C (.05-.2 degrees C per decade). See maps of minima and maxima or timelines of minima and maxima from 1910 to 2008.

Eastern Australia is affected by El Nino/ El Nina. WA is more affected by an analogous event in the Indian Ocean. Never the less, these events are wave patterns with a frequency of a few years, certainly less than a decade.

The trend over the last 100 years is clearly and unambiguous for both the maxima and the minima moving higher. And the trend is accelerating.

Due to the water showing up on the surface of mars and one of the other planets if I recall correctly as well as the sun showing very little flare activity. I think what is causing the changes throughout the galaxy is of a cosmic origin.

It was the coldest October here in NZ for over 60 years.

And we seem to have lost our long hot summers.

Winter is reliable - horrible.

And Autumn is reliable - probably the best season.

reply to post by rnaa

Yes. And your point is? From the conclusion in the paper I posted about WA temperature change:

I was responding to this Australian chap that said it was darned hot where he was.

And I made the same conclusion from your rather complicated paper that in deed you are heating up over there rather slightly and gradually. But my point is that El Nino causes a little peak in the temps. Unfortunately El Nino is NOW and I am feeling it here in Alaska. We have warmer temps which is nice but that brings in more nice warm Pacific air that results in increased snowfall. So I have already had to put on snow tires and started up my snowplow truck!

Anomalous weather factors

Low solar activity is the rather obvious factor, as we are still in an extended solar minimum. It's presumed that 2009 will be the fourth greatest period for sunspot-free days since 1900.

Another big factor would be global dimming, caused by an increase in particulates and aerosols that reduce the Sun's direct irradiance of Earth.

Add in climate change and our atmospheric soup can have all types of anomalies that don't seem to fit into our preconceived interpretations of normal weather.

We now have an epic Southwestern US heatwave too, which is not typical of an El Nino period either. Arizona Heat Wave: Hottest November day on record

More info:
How Sunlight Controls Climate Scientific American
Solar Wind Loses Power, Hits 50-year Low NASA
Solar variation Wikipedia

More climate instability is the long term forecast and when the sun wakes up it's BBQ time.


[edit on 11-11-2009 by Regenmacher]

Originally posted by vita eternus
And here in Adelaide, South Australia .... we're currently in the middle of breaking Springtime heat wave records right this moment with 5 consecutive days of temps in excess of 35c ... and we still have two weeks of Spring to go before we hit our summer ! Last summer we hit 46c and broke records and the way things seem to be getting hotter and hotter here in S.A., I wouldn't be too surprised to see us hit 49c/50c within 5 years.

Mon: 35c
Tue: 37c
Wed: 39c
Thur: 39c (predicted)
Fri: 39c (predicted)
Sat: 33c (predicted)

Just an update:

Sat: now predicted an increase from 33c to 39c
Sun: now predicted 36c

So our previous spring heat waves well and truly melted !

Can almost feel that 46c summer day heading this way once again

[edit on 11/11/09 by tauristercus]

Sorry Auzies, about your baking climate down there, but here in Canada I gotta say Yay! Go El Niño! After several years of cold winters with heavy snow I look forward to a mild one, which is what El Niño does for us in this neck of the woods.

After a cold October, yes November has been much warmer so far.
El Niño spells relief!

reply to post by OzWeatherman


How long a period would you say is reasonable to study climate change, bearing in mind the age of the planet?

Would you say it is unreasonable to base findings on, say, the last half of the 20th century?

Would it not also be correct to say that this is like judging a test match on the last 3 seconds of play?

Originally posted by rnaa
Ya think? The issue is CLIMATE, not weather.

...........really

In what way?

Record breaking weather swings in Florida

Temperature Statistics in Western Australia including October 2009

As the average temperature goes up, LOCAL weather gets more unpredictable, not only record highs but also record lows are recorded as the pendulum swings wider. Droughts and floods increase in severity and frequency.

ha ha, it is not weather it is climate, then you use particular WEATHER data to back up your view on the issue.

Originally posted by plumranch
Or just look at the UAH raw data since 1978

Yeah, it shows warming. All the major datasets do - UAH, RSS, NASA-GISS, HADCRUT

I just posted the same data above. Just in various forms. This last decade has been the warmest in the observational record.

even if data since 1978 showed "warming"- how can anyone seriously formulate a large scale policy involving ever more cross border regulation, taxation etc, on a timescale of 30 years considering the age of the earth (that is without even getting into a debate about whether recent years are actually cooling or warming).

A chap in the UK won a successful appeal to challenge his dismissal from his employment due to this environmental beliefs- he challenged that successfully under legislation designed for religious beliefs, the irony was not lost on me..............