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* Temperature Highlights - October
* The average October temperature of 50.8°F was 4.0°F below the 20th Century average and ranked as the 3rd coolest based on preliminary data.
* For the nation as a whole, it was the third coolest October on record. The month was marked by an active weather pattern that reinforced unseasonably cold air behind a series of cold fronts. Temperatures were below normal in eight of the nation's nine climate regions, and of the nine, five were much below normal. Only the Southeast climate region had near normal temperatures for
And here in Adelaide, South Australia .... we're currently in the middle of breaking heat wave records right this moment with 5 consecutive days of temps in excess of 35c ... and we still have two weeks of Spring to go
El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niños also have produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.
Originally posted by plumranch
reply to post by vita eternus
Conditions in Australia are forcast to be warmer 2009- 10.
Oh gawd I got them mixed up, I meant to say its wicthing to an El Nino phase
Originally posted by vita eternus
reply to post by OzWeatherman
Oh gawd I got them mixed up, I meant to say its wicthing to an El Nino phase
No probs ... we get the idea you're presenting !
Let's just put the error down to the heat up around Woomera, shall we ?
It's probably too early to make any overall conclusions based on a few month's weather but at least we can put global warming on the shelf for a while.
April 2009 was the fifth warmest April since global surface records began in 1880 for combined global land and ocean surface temperatures. April land surface temperatures were fifth warmest, while ocean surface temperatures tied with 2003 as the fifth warmest in the 130-year record. The year-to-date (January-April) land and ocean combined temperature tied with 2003 as the sixth warmest on record.
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the fourth warmest on record in May and the fifth warmest on record for boreal spring (March-May). The year-to-date (January-May) land and ocean combined temperature tied with 2003 as the sixth warmest on record.
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the second warmest on record in June, behind 2005, and tied with 2004 as the fifth warmest on record for the year-to-date (January-June) period. The global ocean had the warmest June on record.
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the fifth warmest on record in July and tied with 2004 as the sixth warmest on record for the year-to-date (January-July) period. The global land surface tied with 2003 as the ninth warmest July on record, while the global ocean surface had the warmest July on record.
The combined global land and ocean surface temperatures for August 2009 ranked as the second warmest August on record since records began in 1880. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.05°C (0.09°F) short of tying the record set in 1998. Sea surface temperatures (SST) during August 2009 were warmer than average across much of the world's oceans, with cooler-than-average conditions across the higher-latitude southern oceans and the northern parts of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The August 2009 worldwide ocean SST ranked as the warmest on record for a third consecutive month—0.57°C (1.03°F) above the 20th century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F). This broke the previous August record set in 1998, 2003, and 2005.
The combined global land and ocean surface temperatures for September 2009 ranked as the second warmest September on record since records began in 1880. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. Similar to the combined global land and ocean temperatures, the worldwide land surface temperature was the second warmest September on record, behind 2005
Ocean surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have warmed further and now exceed levels typical of an El Niño event by their greatest margin of the year. Similarly, the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index has fallen to its lowest value since 2007. Leading climate models suggest tropical ocean temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least early 2010
The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface remains warmer than average and exceeds El Niño thresholds in central to eastern regions. The central Pacific has warmed further and now exceeds average values by the largest amount since late 2006.
The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has warmed further in central regions over the past two weeks, and now exceed 4°C above normal in some regions.
The SOI has rapidly fallen through October with a current (26 October) 30-day value of approximately −12.
Trade winds have continued to weaken across the tropical Pacific in the last two weeks. Weaker than normal Trade flow is now evident across most of the equatorial Pacific.
Cloudiness near the date line has generally been greater than the long-term mean over past months. However, when compared with other El Niño events, the current trend in cloudiness is weak.
Most leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) to remain above El Niño thresholds until at least early 2010.
The Pacific Ocean sea surface remains significantly warmer than the long-term mean over the main El Niño regions. The SST anomaly map for October is available here; the map shows warm anomalies covering most of the tropical Pacific, with anomalies in excess of +1°C evident across much of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. The central equatorial Pacific has warmed significantly through October, while the western Pacific has cooled. The preliminary monthly NINO indices for October are +0.8°C, +1.0°C and +1.2°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively. When compared with September values, NINO4 has warmed by +0.4°C while NINO3 and NINO3.4 have remained similar in magnitude.
The chance that the average November-January maximum temperature will exceed the long-term median maximum temperature, is between 60 to 75% across most of Queensland and northern and eastern NSW. In contrast, the chances of exceeding maximum temperatures are between 35 to 40% for a small region in eastern WA.
The chances of exceeding the median rainfall for November to January are between 25 and 40% over southeast Queensland and the eastern half of NSW (see map). This means that for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven years are expected to be drier than average over these regions, while about three or four years are wetter.
Contrasting this, the chance of wetter than average conditions is between 60 and 65% for western and central parts of the NT and northeast WA.
Across the rest of the country, including Victoria, SA, much of WA and Queensland, the chances of exceeding the median rainfall for October to December are between 40 and 60%, meaning that above average falls are about as equally likely as below average falls in these regions
Originally posted by voodmon
do you..OZ weatherman take us all for complete morons?