posted on Nov, 9 2009 @ 04:23 PM
This is a good thread to distance from the main one.
We know that Ukraine was already struggling to pay for its October gas bill of $500m.
Part of the IMFs last tranche from the $16b loan was used for this.
Previously we have heard of complicated payments in that bank printed money-gave to Natfgas who in turn paid Gazprom.
If we are going to look at the implications of the Ukraine economy after the flu-we must first be aware of the position BEFORE it.
Ukraine is already in dire straits.
The IMF have said the 4th payment of the IMF loan will not be repaid until the election is over.Yushenko originally sought to prolong bthe election
until May but over the weekend came the IMFs decisions.
Yushenko knows if no election in January this means no money.
It looks like he has faced up to that scenario.
The recent visit of Lukashenko the only communist leader in Europe coming to visit from Belarus is very timely.
Lukshenko is no fool and his socialist regime has kept him in power for many years.
A former collegue of Putin and ex KGB himself Lukashenko has played with the West and Moscow.
If the Ukraine president can be instrumental in bringing Belarus to the European table then its something that all would welcome.
Lukashenko knows that the Ukraine president is on his way out,but sees Lushenkos close ties with the West as a bargaining chip.
I personally think the aftermath of Ukraines current problems will not depend one one or two issues,but many.
Medvedovs announcement of greater ties once a new government is established is worthy of observation.
Trade between Russia and Ukraine amounts to a lot of money.
Yushenkos against Moscow stance has done him no favours if we remember that Ukraine South and East are predominantly Russian supporting.
So what of the Orange revolution ?
Whether rightly or wrongly the people have revolted against Lushenkos grip on the economy amid a prime minister who has done nothing but embrace its
old Father Russia.
Moscow too has seen a resurgance lately in people who march for returns to communism but we dont see the young people on these marches-it is the old
who have little voice today.
Lushenko has caused divisions in saying that the lease for the Russian black sea fleet will not be renewed in 2017.
What politician or leader can see ahead 9 years ?
Why has he chosen to make this such an issue ?
The West and the EU has kept a wary distance because they still see Ukraine as being the child Russia still wants to come home.
Putin is known to have said that Ukraine was the jewel in the Russian Crown which he says Russia did not want to lose.
I would never have believed that Romania would be in the EU 5 years ago.
Corruption there was just as bad if not worse than Ukraine.
But the distinctions there end.
I believe the future economy and direction of Ukraine can be hard to analyse at this moment in time.
Greater ties with Russia will give them some hope but it would have to be at the expense of no integration of the EU or Nato...Russia are watching for
Heightened relations with Belarus could offer some comfort-as would Poland who are still wounded by Russian war games simulated against them
Ukraines main industry has been iron ore and mining.
It will need global demand to increase and for them to be competitive-China and India are both good markets for that.
Insofar as Ukraines standing in the West-I cant really see them getting much benefit once Tymoshenko takes Ukraine to Moscows shirt tails.