Well, the world has seen many, many, many plagues before. IF this turns out to be something truly horrible (it very well might) then many of us will suffer and possibly die. Things will then go on. I'm curious as all hell to know what is really going on and can't take my eyes off of these Ukraine Flu threads for long but life will continue. There are no promises in life. Flu or no flu, any of us can go tomorrow.

The calculation is not based on sound assumptions. For example, the assumption is that the rate of infection will continue as it has, which may not be the case. Those who are more vulnerable to this strain of virus may already have fallen ill. Those who haven't may mostly be people who, for various reasons, have some sort of immunity.

Another consideration is that the disease was spreading for a while before quarantine efforts were put into effect. These efforts - closing of schools, public gatherings, etc. - may help to reduce the numbers of people infected.

Most important, however, is the possibility that the Ukrainian government is not being truthful, that they are inflating the numbers for political purposes. For example, there is an election of some sort that may be delayed as a result of this virus. Also, there are various economic problems that are now being ignored in light of this panic. This virus makes an excellent distraction from the other woes, while leaving the government free of blame. After all, it's a virus. Can't blame the government for that.

bla, bla, bla,....as long as you avoid all vaccines for the rest of your life, you will be healthy as an ox.

oxygen therapies and nutrition are all you need.

two cheap ones are mms, mms-2

hydrogen peroxide 35% is great too. these things will take care of anything in hours. if you got a cancer lump, maybe it will take a month or no more than 6 months, depending on your physical condition.

if you feel yourself getting sick, its so simple,...all you got to do is mix up 15 drops of mms and 1 teaspoon of activator, wait 3 minutes, add cup and a half of water, then down it. cured! do that again an hour later at the same dose or maybe half the dose.

i haven't tried the calcium hypochlorite yet. but i know it will purify the blood pretty quickly of anything and everything.

Originally posted by chiron613
Most important, however, is the possibility that the Ukrainian government is not being truthful, that they are inflating the numbers for political purposes. For example, there is an election of some sort that may be delayed as a result of this virus. Also, there are various economic problems that are now being ignored in light of this panic. This virus makes an excellent distraction from the other woes, while leaving the government free of blame. After all, it's a virus. Can't blame the government for that.

I have to agree with this statement.

This would not have been the first time a goverment has done something like this

I had hoped that folks here would think through this a bit, after all the title does say IMPLICATIONS.

Ok, I guess I'll have to spell it out for you:

Over 900,000 of 46 million are sick, right?

In one region of the Ukraine, right?

They had no vaccines until Wednesday or Thursday, right?

It takes a week for the vaccines to be effective, right?

It'll take at least two days (at least) to get everyone vaccinated, or to run out of vaccines anyway, right?

So that means they are looking at at least nine more days of a highly virulent virus spreading before it begins to be checked, right?

Each sick person will be sick for around 12 days, and take another week or so to fully recover, based on 1st person reoprts here on ATS, right?

Each sick person will require the attention of one or more healthy people, depending upon how sick they are, but at least one to one, right?

So to gauge the economic effects, you have to double the number of sick to account for the diversion of time and energy to tend the sick, right?

That means that an additional 900,000 people, mostly working age adults, are currently diverted from productive economic work.

So, right now, nearly 2 million out of 46 million are not available for economic activity. Deduct children and you're still around 1.2-1.5 million diversions, at this time, will zero increase in caseload. If normal demographics apply here, about half the total population is in the workforce pool.

So that means, that right now some 5% of the entire workforce pool is either sick or treating the sick. If the virus proceeds in the other regions of the Ukraine as it has in the western part, then in another week we can expect at least another 5-15% diversion from the economy before this is over. I see no reason other than wishful thinking to assume it has peaked there.

So what happens to a country's economy under these circumstances? I don't think anyone in modern times has ever experienced this before, please correct me if I'm wrong (with citations, please).

I don't know enough about the patterns of work and production in the Ukraine to give an educated guess. Any economists here who can predict in general? Anyone familiar enough with the Ukraine's economy to know whether things like crops will go unharvested or undone that are time dependant, i.e., do it November or lose the opportunity?

That's what I was asking originally. I know most people will eventually recover, that the dead, while numerous, are not that many in the grand scheme of things, so please don't go there, that's stipulated. I'm looking at the economic consequences of a huge number of sick people at the same time.

Any answers, anyone?

Reasonable speculations?



[edit on 8-11-2009 by apacheman]

This isn't the first time the a part of the world has been hit by disease. I'm sure time and time again, people will always assume their generation or lifetime is the "end time".

If it is, why worry? You can't stop it, so why dwell on it? Because you're going to die? Your loved ones are going to die? Well if that freaks you out, then welcome to Earth, because you must be new here.

Originally posted by apacheman
I had hoped that folks here would think through this a bit, after all the title does say IMPLICATIONS.

Ok, I guess I'll have to spell it out for you:

Over 900,000 of 46 million are sick, right?

In one region of the Ukraine, right?

They had no vaccines until Wednesday or Thursday, right?

It takes a week for the vaccines to be effective, right?

It'll take at least two days (at least) to get everyone vaccinated, or to run out of vaccines anyway, right?

So that means they are looking at at least nine more days of a highly virulent virus spreading before it begins to be checked, right?

Each sick person will be sick for around 12 days, and take another week or so to fully recover, based on 1st person reoprts here on ATS, right?

Each sick person will require the attention of one or more healthy people, depending upon how sick they are, but at least one to one, right?

So to gauge the economic effects, you have to double the number of sick to account for the diversion of time and energy to tend the sick, right?

That means that an additional 900,000 people, mostly working age adults, are currently diverted from productive economic work.

So, right now, nearly 2 million out of 46 million are not available for economic activity. Deduct children and you're still around 1.2-1.5 million diversions, at this time, will zero increase in caseload. If normal demographics apply here, about half the total population is in the workforce pool.

So that means, that right now some 5% of the entire workforce pool is either sick or treating the sick. If the virus proceeds in the other regions of the Ukraine as it has in the western part, then in another week we can expect at least another 5-15% diversion from the economy before this is over. I see no reason other than wishful thinking to assume it has peaked there.

So what happens to a country's economy under these circumstances? I don't think anyone in modern times has ever experienced this before, please correct me if I'm wrong (with citations, please).

I don't know enough about the patterns of work and production in the Ukraine to give an educated guess. Any economists here who can predict in general? Anyone familiar enough with the Ukraine's economy to know whether things like crops will go unharvested or undone that are time dependant, i.e., do it November or lose the opportunity?

That's what I was asking originally. I know most people will eventually recover, that the dead, while numerous, are not that many in the grand scheme of things, so please don't go there, that's stipulated. I'm looking at the economic consequences of a huge number of sick people at the same time.

Any answers, anyone?

Reasonable speculations?



[edit on 8-11-2009 by apacheman]

i bet this swine hypo is some sort of radioactive poisoning, don't you find this interesting - craze in ukraine, but nothing in the neighbouring countries, Ukraine has a log history of democide (remember Chernobyl etc),

they have those all nuclear factories, sure swine flu is radioactive poisoning !!!

There was a guy a few months back that said "Baxter" was going to release something in the Ukraine. He called into radio stations declaring this and they all thought he was crazy. From what I hear... he was actually one of the guys who helped engineer this bug, and wanted to clear his conscious. He was then arrested by a small army and sent back to his country Ill try to find the thing later on it,.

All that is very interesting but not on topic.

If your going to post here please say something relevant.

I don't care too much about who may have done what for whatever reasons, except insofar as it pertains to the questions I've posed.

Thanks for paying attention.

Latest reports show 969,247 ill; 48,972 hospitalized.

Caseload daily increase has dropped from 127,242 to 42,468. What is notable is that this is stated to be the first day the number of new cases hasn't increased from the day before. This is good news if sustained, and not just a temporary dip.

What does the Ukraine usually produce in November? Anyone know? Are things going unharvested because of this? Are mines or timber or anything else running at reduced capacity? Are any industries in particular more effected than others? Or is there enough slack that there is no particular disruption of the economy ?

We have any locals who can fill us in on the current economic fallout?