It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
Originally posted by chiron613
Most important, however, is the possibility that the Ukrainian government is not being truthful, that they are inflating the numbers for political purposes. For example, there is an election of some sort that may be delayed as a result of this virus. Also, there are various economic problems that are now being ignored in light of this panic. This virus makes an excellent distraction from the other woes, while leaving the government free of blame. After all, it's a virus. Can't blame the government for that.
Originally posted by apacheman
I had hoped that folks here would think through this a bit, after all the title does say IMPLICATIONS.
Ok, I guess I'll have to spell it out for you:
Over 900,000 of 46 million are sick, right?
In one region of the Ukraine, right?
They had no vaccines until Wednesday or Thursday, right?
It takes a week for the vaccines to be effective, right?
It'll take at least two days (at least) to get everyone vaccinated, or to run out of vaccines anyway, right?
So that means they are looking at at least nine more days of a highly virulent virus spreading before it begins to be checked, right?
Each sick person will be sick for around 12 days, and take another week or so to fully recover, based on 1st person reoprts here on ATS, right?
Each sick person will require the attention of one or more healthy people, depending upon how sick they are, but at least one to one, right?
So to gauge the economic effects, you have to double the number of sick to account for the diversion of time and energy to tend the sick, right?
That means that an additional 900,000 people, mostly working age adults, are currently diverted from productive economic work.
So, right now, nearly 2 million out of 46 million are not available for economic activity. Deduct children and you're still around 1.2-1.5 million diversions, at this time, will zero increase in caseload. If normal demographics apply here, about half the total population is in the workforce pool.
So that means, that right now some 5% of the entire workforce pool is either sick or treating the sick. If the virus proceeds in the other regions of the Ukraine as it has in the western part, then in another week we can expect at least another 5-15% diversion from the economy before this is over. I see no reason other than wishful thinking to assume it has peaked there.
So what happens to a country's economy under these circumstances? I don't think anyone in modern times has ever experienced this before, please correct me if I'm wrong (with citations, please).
I don't know enough about the patterns of work and production in the Ukraine to give an educated guess. Any economists here who can predict in general? Anyone familiar enough with the Ukraine's economy to know whether things like crops will go unharvested or undone that are time dependant, i.e., do it November or lose the opportunity?
That's what I was asking originally. I know most people will eventually recover, that the dead, while numerous, are not that many in the grand scheme of things, so please don't go there, that's stipulated. I'm looking at the economic consequences of a huge number of sick people at the same time.
Any answers, anyone?
[edit on 8-11-2009 by apacheman]