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Number of victims to unknown virus growing! State of emergency to be imposed in Ukraine?

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posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:16 AM
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Originally posted by JustMike
reply to post by ahemot
 

Ahemot, unless that article has been changed in the past few minutes since you posted (which I admit can happen on-line) it doesn't use the term "pneumonic plague". It refers to "6 people with suspected A H1N1 flu". The term "pneumonic plague" doesn't appear anywhere in that report. Within the article it only speaks of influenza, not "plague" (pneumonic or otherwise).

Best regards,

Mike


I haven't read through the last few pages - seems to be numerous pages more to read through, each time I come back here. Anyway.....

Just wanted to say that the only time I've seen pneumonic plague in a report was from the RSOE EDIS website about half way down the page in red.


Situation Update No. 4 On 30.10.2009 at 12:16 GMT+2 05:39 p.m.

A closed meeting has been held in Ivano-Frankivsk, at which participants agreed that epidemic of the so-called "pneumonic plague" is being spread throughout Ukraine. But the problem is its form is unknown, it is ATYPICAL nobody knows how to treat it.

PNEUMONIC PLAGUE has an acute course than other forms, over and is accompanied by a very high mortality rate. The incubation period of primary pneumonic plague rarely exceeds more than 1-4 days. It begins, as a rule, suddenly - with shivering, fever, headache, myalgia, weakness, nausea. The symptoms of pneumonia - cough with phlegm, chest pain, shortness of breath - usually appear on the second day of the disease. Blood spitting, growing respiratory disorders, heart failure, respiratory failure, shock are being observed. In primary pneumonic plague phlegm usually is watery or mucinous, foamy, with blood or visibly bloody. A secondary pneumonic plague occurs as interstitial pneumonia. Phlegm is scanty and more dense and viscous than in primary pulmonary plague. It is believed that in this regard, patients are less contagious.


It doesn't seem to have been mentioned again in any further updates but I might have missed it.

Not trying to rock any boats - just trying to be helpful and give a reliable source that did mention the pneumonic plague and I haven't got time now to read back through the last few pages to see if anyone else had mentioned it before me.




posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:16 AM
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reply to post by Haydn_17
 


Apparent Flu, but the infection rate is quite high.
Higher than what has been occurring in other parts of the world.



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:18 AM
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Originally posted by martin3030
Of those said to be ill 123 are alleged to be in a critical condition.
The swiss yesterday sent 300 million doses of Tamiflu.

www.russiatoday.ru...

It was 300 thousand doses of Tamiflu, not 300 million. This has been reported already in the thread.


Originally posted by martin3030

Slavakia has handed Ukraine 200 million face masks-which equates to half ofg their stocks.

en.rian.ru...

Hate to be picky but Slovakia is sending 200 thousand surgical masks, not 200 million. I reported this earlier in the thread with a translation of the original news report.

Just want to keep the facts straight.


Mike

[edit on 2/11/09 by JustMike]



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:19 AM
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Death toll from the flu - 67 people



Newspaper in Kiev, 02.11.2009
The death toll from the flu epidemic in Ukraine has reached 67 people. This at a press conference, said deputy Minister of Health Mr. Lazoryshynets. In particular, 29 people died in the Lviv region, 14 - in Ternopil, 12 - Ivano-Frankivsk, 5 - Chernivtsi. First Deputy Minister added that all the deaths "are similar. According to preliminary information, its primary cause was influenza virus A (H1N1), but research is still ongoing.
In general, he said, in Ukraine 250 thousand people suffering from SARS and avian influenza, of which 15 thousand are hospitalized, 17 (people) - in intensive care.


Translation - Google



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:23 AM
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Summary: Information on the incidence of influenza, acute respiratory infections and their complications (pneumonia, etc.) at 8-00 hr. 2009 р. November 2, 2009

255504 suffering from Flu/ARI
Hospital admission 15,677
Intensive Care 174
Deaths 67

[edit on 2-11-2009 by infinite]



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:31 AM
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reply to post by infinite
 

Wait a minute -- they're saying that people are suffering from Avian flu? Now that is something that has not been reported before and it requires checking up! (No I'm not shooting the messenger, don't worry!
)

Also their figure of only 17 people in ICU sounds a bit suspicious. It's an incredibly low percentage of the total.

Edit: Even the figure of 174 ICU cases that you reference in your next post is very low. I wonder how far we can trust these official figures?

Just an observation: in four days, the number of infected went from about 36,000 or so, up to circa 80,000, then about 160,000, then around 250,000 (which is possibly not a final figure for that day). That is virtually a doubling of the numbers every 24 hours of reported cases -- without considering those who don't go to a doctor or hospital but prefer home care of their own.

Mike


[edit on 2/11/09 by JustMike]



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:34 AM
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reply to post by infinite
 




Sorry Mike yes you are correct-thank you for pointing it out.



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:35 AM
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reply to post by JustMike
 


174 in ICU, according to the other set of figures I've posted.

Btw, does anyone have a running up-to-date (hour-by-house) news from Ukraine? The site I was using is now down



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:38 AM
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Originally posted by Zosynspiracy
reply to post by ranswer
 


67 dead thats' it? Out of 15K hospitalized? That's 0.4%. This is getting silly people.


I would like to point out that swine flu didn't kill many people in other places either.

What I would also like to point out, is that the 'unknown' virus, has infected an 'unknown' number of people.

People seem to be wondering what the problem is - the problem is not the number of deaths, it is the death RATE, and CAUSE of death.

Well - let me speculate, and create a hypothesis.

Lets say 192,000 or whatever people are infected with something. Of these lets say 100,000 have seasonal flu - ok - how many die? Lets say 1.

Now, lets further assume that 91,800 are infected with swine flu - of these 5 die.

Now lets assume 200 people have some unknown virus which they contracted in the last few days. Of these 60 are dead, and the other 140 can't be distinguished from any of the other flu victims until they drop dead!

Now, does that look like a problem?

It looks like a problem to me. As far as I can make out, seasonal flu and swine flu have obviously been around for a bit - because there are so many infected cases.

Information on the plague cases seems to indicate they only live at most 4 days - so the number infected is likely to be small - but how the hell do they determine who has the deadly disease, and who has a seasonal flu?

They can't TELL! By the time they can tell, the person is dead, and has spread the disease to X number of others.

Furthermore, there are a number of rumours that death rates are being concealed. Granted that there were the same rumours with the initial swine flu outbreaks in Mexico - so it is purely speculative.

The point that I am trying to underscore here is - 60 deaths is not significant, what is significant is the rate and number that are dying from this unknown factor.

The problem for doctors is hundreds of patients, but they all have to be separated and treated as if they have something deadly - until you can prove otherwise - which at the moment, they probably can't.

If my scenario is correct - then it is going to be hell to try and treat them all.

[edit on 2-11-2009 by Amagnon]



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:39 AM
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reply to post by martin3030
 

No problem.
One of those articles you sourced actually used the word "million" in place of "thousand". A journalistic slip-up (I guess) that was not noticed by the editors. These things happen, which is why it's good when we can get the data from multiple sources.

Mike



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:42 AM
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On finnish news it says now similar outbreak in city of Sinaia, Romania in a hotel used to give housing for foreign students from 31 different countries. 40 taken into hospital.


[edit on 2-11-2009 by 01001011]

[edit on 2-11-2009 by 01001011]



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:46 AM
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Ukraine president addresses media and nation about curresnt situation and plans.
He appears to be blaming prime minister Yulia Tymeshenko for a few things;


www.kyivpost.com...



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:50 AM
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So now we have "reports" (not saying any are confirmed or not) of the following:

Seasonal Flu
H1N1
A/H1N1 (I think there is a difference, question mark?)
African Swine Flu
Pneumonic Plauge
Unknown

Again, not all of these are confirmed but they have been rumored or reported to be.



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 07:56 AM
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Originally posted by martin3030
Ukraine president addresses media and nation about curresnt situation and plans.
He appears to be blaming prime minister Yulia Tymeshenko for a few things;


www.kyivpost.com...


Good article, nice find. Good summary of the government planing to plan, haha.



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 08:03 AM
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reply to post by Amagnon
 


You make a good point in that there could "could" be another infection out there that is at work. Until postmortems are completed on all fatalities we will not have this resolved. And that is assuming that they take a hard look at each case and do not take the easy way out and say that it was XXX that killed them.

IMO the critical thing that has come out of this is the transmission rate of what ever this is in the Ukraine. If we see this repeated in other countries you will have a hard time with keeping the country functioning normally. You will see disruptions in trucking, food distribution, and a host of other issues. The official numbers show that after about 4 days you have 1/2 of 1% of the total population of the Ukraine sick. At the current infection rate you could see 50% of the population sick in a week. Now most of these would be mild cases, just out of work for a few days but still the impact on the economy would be very large.



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 08:05 AM
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This might actually see the president and the prime minister working together for the first time.....theres no place for political point scoring here.
They have to try and forget their differences for the moment and get on with looking after their people.



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 08:09 AM
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I know RT is not the most reliable source, but in this case I count it more reliable than most western media's are:

Here are few news resources with some statistics

www.russiatoday.ru...

en.rian.ru...

Trust them or not, decide yourself.


For me, the big panic and uncomfirmed reports are all about soon starting new gas crisis and elections, but of course, like we have been discussing throughout the thread you guys mostly disagree
.



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 08:10 AM
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Here's a factor to consider, and not only for Ukraine, but any country faced with a rapidly-spreading and dangerous infectious disease outbreak:

the number of hospital beds available.

I did a search and found that the number of hospital beds in Ukraine has been falling since the end of the Communist era. This is not surprising as the same has been happening in my country. Without a "cradle to grave" socialist system in place, health care becomes a major financial burden, especially in post-communist countries which now have to face up to real-world considerations of costs and efficiencies. Several hospitals in my country have been closed as part of cost rationalizations, and the others have not had their numbers of beds increased. All the same, we still have more beds per thousand than many other countries.

Here's a comparative table: Hospital Beds by Nation.

Note that the US is well down the table with only 3.6 beds/1,000 people. The UK has only 4.1. Not much better.

Ukraine is not listed in this table, which I find odd as historically (even on the same site) it ranked quite well, but perhaps they are not reporting these days. But anyway, here is their historical chart:

Ukraine Hospital Beds Historical Data to 2003

Even if we assumed that they have lost half their beds since 2003 (which is actually not so likely, but maybe up to one-third could be possible), then they would still have 4.4 per 1,000, which is still better than the UK or the USA.

So let's calculate. Ukraine has around 46 million inhabitants. That's 46,000 "thousands". So if it has only 50% of its 2003 rate of 8.8 beds/1,000 (making it 4.4), then the number of beds would be 46,000 x 4.4, which is 202,400 beds.

However, not all of those beds or even hospital wards would be available for admitting infected patients from an epidemic. The trick would be to find out what the reserve capacity would be in such a situation.

It's also highly significant that some major countries actually have very low rates for beds per thousand of population. True, the overall standard of health might be better in some respects, but this will not necessarily offset a deficit of beds in a major epidemic or pandemic.

Then there's the issue that health care workers are also being affected. This places greater stress on the others and also increases their workload. In any epidemic with an unknown pathogen, we have to expect health care workers may be significantly affected in the earlier stages.

Just some food for thought.

Mike

[edit on 2/11/09 by JustMike]



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 08:17 AM
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reply to post by Zosynspiracy
 



67 dead thats' it? Out of 15K hospitalized? That's 0.4%. This is getting silly people.



I think it's important to note that the 60+ deaths are only those REPORTED. We have seen from previous outbreaks of H1N1 globally, that the quantification/reporting often lags far behind the actual numbers. Particularly in this situation in the Ukraine, where there may be more than one infecting agent at work.

Not fear-mongering, just a reminder.

[edit on 2/11/09 by argentus]



posted on Nov, 2 2009 @ 08:28 AM
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reply to post by argentus
 

Agreed, it is a fact of life that reporting can lag and in some cases will be incomplete. I said the same thing in my post here, and by implication, as the number of actual cases may well be higher than the reported figure, the number of deaths may be as well.

And you're right: it's not scare-mongering, it's just the way these things usually go.

I wonder at the fact that the number of reported infections has virtually doubled daily, so that it's now over 7 times what it was four days ago, but the number of deaths has increased in that time by less than 100% from 37 to a stated figure of 67.

Either this illness has suddenly become less lethal or the reports of mortality are lagging a great deal. Again, that's not scaremongering, just an observation based on the official numbers we are getting, as best as we can interpret what they are saying to us.

Mike



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