Number of victims to unknown virus growing! State of emergency to be imposed in Ukraine?, page 137

reply to post by nikiano

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The outbreak in Ukraine is already designated as an epidemic simply because the speed at which infections are occurring. There may be some reason to question this, however as they are using trends to determine the danger.

They look at the speed of infection and calculate it against the length of time the outbreak should last based on comparison to how long outbreaks lasted in the past.

The issue with doing that in this case is that the severe outbreaks of this virus don't seem to last as long as historic ones did. Rather than rising smoothly on the graph to a peak in six months time and then trending down (just an example, not accurate) the outbreaks with this virus skyrocket in a three month or so period (we're probably on month 2 in Ukraine) and then fall off. The high fatality period hasn't lasted very long in previous places like Mexico, Argentina, the USA and so on.

There's every reason to be concerned just based on current activity and trending but if it holds true to the pattern the high rate of deaths will peak and then decline back to seasonal flu or less within the next 30 days if not sooner.

In Mexico the first outbreaks occurred in February. Most of the first victims who died died of pneumonia after a prolonged illness. (There were other types such as the rapid death kind and so on but not in large numbers).

Then, in April the number of deaths in short amounts of time infected began to skyrocket with the climax of the week long period when the World media attention began and the WHO became involved.

The trends looked pretty bad then as well but then just as quickly the outbreak of quick deaths fell off and returned to seasonal or less type
activity.

This virus is very, very strange in behaving this way. It seems to fall outside the model which lends credibility to suspicions it is not a naturally evolved virus. . .

reply to post by nikiano

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I have trouble believing the statistics that 20% of the population get flu each year. This would mean very roughly that 1 in 5 of the people I know come down with it. This simply is not the case. As for me, I am 59 and only had real flu twice in my life. Of course it might be that developed countries have less incidence but then undeveloped countries would have to be having, say 30% incidence.
Heaven knows where they get these figures. Unless it's because people often think a bad cold is flu?

WHO Continues To Deceive: Assumes That Ukraine Plague Is H1N1 Swine Flu
www.globalresearch.ca...

Junk Science and Contradictions Dominate WHO Pandemic Statements and Policies
preventdisease.com...

Originally posted by seattletruth
According to the military, the bug the soldier got in Afghanistan is NOT unknown.. It's a crimean-congo bug.. Coincedentally it was discovered in Crimea (which HASN'T been hit by h1n1 OR the mystery bug)...
[edit on 6-11-2009 by seattletruth]

Just to clarify, Crimea has been hit by either H1N1 or the mystery bug.
As of yesterday (Nov 6), 12,694 cases had been reported there. So it's not at epidemic levels yet but heading in that direction.

Here's a link to a stats page which shows these infection figures.

That's the Ukraine Ministry of Health website. They report on these cases and include them in their overall figures because the Crimea (Crimean Peninsula) is part of Ukraine.

It's the first region listed in their daily stats charts for this epidemic.

Here's a link to "map of ukraine . net" which shows the region of Crimea and gives a potted history.

Anyway, in light of what you've found out about that soldier in Afghanistan, it's probably not significant that he contracted a disease that was first discovered in Ukraine's Crimean region.

But it might be.

Many thanks for the information.

Regards,

Mike

reply to post by JustMike

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Oops, you're right about Crimea. I remembered seeing the statistics last night and seeing it wasn't at epidemic levels. But they are getting hit by influenza.

Today's chart from the Ministry of Health has total deaths at 135

(From yesterday)

FluTracker - H1N1 Swine Flu

Originally posted by kid_of_3NKi
reply to post by JustMike

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109 dead out of 762,835 infected, thats 0,014 % !!
I realy don't see any reason to be concerned about this year's flu viruses.

Ko3

Your math might be sound, but you're overlooking some incredibly important details.

Firstly - the infected number takes into account ALL types of flu like infections. As sources have indicated that there may be 3 or possibly even 4 different diseases, then this number is very misleading.

Secondly - the death rate. That is how many dead over what period of time.


To clarify I will give you a likely scenario - then perhaps armed with this new model you might look at this outbreak with some new respect.

Lets make some assumptions (based on evidence that has been presented so far). Some might balk at the idea of assumptions, but all logic and all scientific theory is predicated upon making assumptions, because unassailable facts cannot exist.

Assumptions;

1. The disease responsible for most of the death is a mutated flu virus, its basic characteristic is H1N1.

2. Three other viruses were introduced or appeared into Ukraine at about the same time. Two seasonal flu varieties, and the ho hum, run of the mill H1N1. These maintain their normal characteristics, with fatality rates around 0.01% - therefore not responsible for many deaths.

3. Testing for H1N1 will detect the new virus, and not differentiate it from H1N1. That is, the testing kits or processes WILL detect the mutated virus, but will incorrectly identify it as run of the mill H1N1.

4. The three basic flu strains were present in Ukraine, and after a period of time a mutation appeared, being the new deadly variety. It's principal killing mechanism is cytokine storm - that is - over stimulation and inflammation of the immune system, so that the hosts immune system kills them.

5. The initial number of infectious cases 4 weeks ago, was about 1,000. Of these reported cases, none of them was the mutated virus. (I made this number up - it may be fairly wrong percentage wise, but its not important to the model, only that the number was low with respect to the current 1/2 million cases).


The figures included in the following example are roughly based on reported numbers, but rather than look them up exactly I will use round numbers and estimates. This does not undermine the model - it is indicative, rather than empirical.

Now lets roll back time to 4 weeks ago.

Of 1,000 cases, none were deadly - death rates were 0.01% or thereabouts. At this point the new virus mutated into existence.

It began to infect the population, but was not symptomatic.

After 1 week, 3,000 flu cases had been identified, of these a small handful lets say 30 were the new strain.

One week later the fatality rate suddenly began to increase. This is because those who first contracted the new and deadly virus had become symptomatic.

We can see that deaths were added daily. 1, 3, 5, 10, 30, 50, 80, 100. Those numbers I have posted are not accurate - but they indicate what I am talking about.

The deaths have occurred over a very short period of time - and they are increasing quickly. The total population infected has also been increasing - but the death rate is applicable to the infected population as it was when people first contracted the disease.

To determine the death rate, you have to have an idea how long it is from contracting the virus, until death.

Then you look back into the past and check how many people were infected at that time. Then you divide the numbers to get a result.

As my scenario suggests - the number infected is bloated by people who did not have the deadly infection - but rather had either a seasonal flu, or the standard H1N1.

So use the 109 deaths I last saw reported to create a model regarding the death rate.

Lets assume;

1. It takes 2 weeks from infection to death.

2. A few weeks ago, 20% of recorded infected cases was the new virus.

3. For illustration I will make up some numbers for infected cases 2 weeks ago. Lets say it was 6,000.


Now, 20% were infected with the deadly virus, meaning 1,200 cases.

Now we have 109 dead. Lets allow that some were killed by seasonal flu and regular H1N1. So we allow 9 deaths for that.

Fatality rate then is 100/1,200 = 8%


If you wish, I suggest you go have a look at the actual infected number from 2 weeks ago.

Also the above model assumes that this new virus went from 0% of the infected population to 20% of the population in one week - unlikely. More likely it was a much smaller percentage.

If you reduce the percentage of the population infected by the new virus, it increases its death rate.

For example; lets say that instead of 20% it was actually 5%

Now; 5% of 6,000 = 300

Fatality rate = 100/300 = 33%


I encourage people to go and have a look at the data and decide for themselves if they should be concerned or not.

According to the World Health Organization: "Every winter, tens of millions of people get the flu. Most are only ill and out of work for a week, yet the elderly are at a higher risk of death from the illness. We know the worldwide death toll exceeds a few hundred thousand people a year, but even in developed countries the numbers are uncertain, because medical authorities don't usually verify who actually died of influenza and who died of a flu-like illness."

From wikipedia: en.wikipedia.org...

Lets not spread fear and panic.

[edit on 7-11-2009 by DwaynetheSpecious]

A lot of very sharp people have been looking at the swine flu and swine flu vaccine program, but they don’t know the larger picture.
...
The secret purpose of the swine flu vaccine is not obvious until you fully understand what the vaccine does. And you must combine that information with the understanding that the real Pandemic is just around the corner.
...
It (the swine flu vaccine) contains an immune adjuvant called squalene MF-59
...
This vaccine is a very powerful immune stimulator (due to the inclusion of squalene MF-59) and carries the real possibility of making the lethality of the virus much greater.
...
... the vaccine will greatly boost the Cytokine Storm, increasing the chance that people will die from the silly swine flu virus before the vaccine can kill it off.

www.ken-welch.com...


Please see my thread at;

www.abovetopsecret.com...

To learn ways to reduce the impact or alleviate the cytokine storm associated with these viruses.

[edit on 7-11-2009 by Amagnon]

reply to post by seattletruth

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No problem... Unless you live in Europe it's probably easy to forget where Crimea is.

But isn't it interesting that of all the times in the past 8 years that a US soldier in Afghanistan could have fallen ill with that particular illness -- one first discovered in Crimea (Ukraine) -- it has happened right now when this Ukraine crisis is fully underway.

This is another one of those coincidences that gets me suspicious.

Mike

reply to post by Amagnon

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I follow what you are saying and in fact we had some discussion about this in the past few pages. Realistically, it's far too early to get any idea of the true mortality rate. You point this out yourself by referring to (estimated) figures for two weeks ago, when this apparently all really started moving there.

All the rest is assumption and you certainly state that very clearly... But until we get some decent data and information about the pathogen(s) involved, we should be wary of calculating mortality rates of eg 33% for an as-yet unknown and unproven, especially lethal pathogen.

You could be right; I'm just saying we need to cautious about making calculations that show very alarming rates of lethality.

Regards,

Mike

Wow, yet another military exercise takes place before something terrible happens? Again, a coincidence? Yeah right -> "As this Interpol release discloses, a full scale bioterrorism exercise was being conducted by the agency in Central and Eastern Europe, including in Ukraine, just one month before the emergence of the mystery epidemic now sweeping the country."

reply to post by squiz

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The only two Ukraine-based members who have posted significantly are the OP (asen) and "former_ussr". I don't recall either of them saying that they had any pictures or had even seen any. Perhaps it was in another thread.

You can check all the posts of any member on a thread by finding just one and clicking on "thread" at the bottom of it. They are then displayed and can even be bookmarked in the normal way.

To check a list of their last 250 posts (ie from any threads), just click on "posts" at the bottom of one of that member's posts.

Mike

Originally posted by Souljah
Wow, yet another military exercise takes place before something terrible happens? Again, a coincidence? Yeah right -> "As this Interpol release discloses, a full scale bioterrorism exercise was being conducted by the agency in Central and Eastern Europe, including in Ukraine, just one month before the emergence of the mystery epidemic now sweeping the country."

Excellent find. Interpol is deeply infiltrated like the UN and WHO.

edit... this was in the comments:
"
The foreign minister of Belgium, Yves Leterme, was recently approached by an unknown foreign leader (prime minister, president?) while attending a UN meeting, IF HE WANTED TO HELP STOP POPULATION GROWTH AND HELP MURDER PEOPLE TO REACH THAT GOAL.

Now Yves Leterme was very shocked by the question and in an interview in the Belgium edition of ParisMatch he talked about this happening and the impact it had on him. He is not willing to reveal which foreign leader did this request at him
See Belgium Newspaper DeMorgen www.demorgen.be...
I have not been able to find ParisMatch Belgium edition in shops or online so we have to work with the details from DeMorgen Newspaper


[edit on 7-11-2009 by JJay55]

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