Number of victims to unknown virus growing! State of emergency to be imposed in Ukraine?

reply to post by JustMike


I didn't want to say anything before, but I would not be surprised that flights out of Ukraine are running late. They are probably doing extra diligence in screening people for illness. That is why last night I recommended that Asan
take something to deal with symptoms of sneezing or cough if he could to avoid drawing attention to himself.

I do hope he makes it through screening.

Originally posted by Gordi The Drummer
I think most of the previous mentions of Pneumonic Plague in the thread have already been identified as mis-translations of "viral pneumonia", and "plague-like" symptoms.

The current outbreak in Ukraine does seem to be viral in nature, (pneumonic plague is bacteriological, caused by Y.Pestis bacteria)
G

Yes I noticed this too.
But consider this, if politicians will use the public as a means for publicity on this scale then how easy is it to upgrade the spectacle? Incidents like this only fuel terrorists. How east was it to create this panic?
1. perfectly placed communication errors.
2. a public ripe for the condition.
3. rumors and hearsay to fuel miscommunication (like the game 'telephone')
4. politicians who stick with their agenda and play the media.

How to avoid this scenerio
1. create a central medical authority (WHO)
2. have available tests that reveal information with transparency.
3. have media who can quell miscommunication with grace
4. send the politicians to trial or change the election system.

In the event of an actual emergency
1. broadcast with high importance from central medical authority.
(is WHO capable of this?)
2. have government quarantine plan
(this is already in place in most countries, but the general public must prepare personally)
3. media should serve as an efficient communication tool
4. politicians need to protect and serve.

If this was an actual mutation or biological attack in the Ukraine
1. fire WHO
2. make personal emergency kits and have a back up plan
3. be aware of quarantine restrictions and wish for the best
4. we will be in one world power shortly.

[edit on 5-11-2009 by JJay55]

reply to post by former_ussr

Hello and greetings from Prague...

So, most of the cases with pneumonia are younger people? That is rather ominous and also tragic. (All such deaths are tragic but this just makes it more so... )

I wish you all the best ad hope you stay healthy and strong!

Also, I got the latest update and Asen's flight has left and is on its way to its "transfer" airport outside of Ukraine. (I won't post specific details until I'm sure he's out of where he's headed to right now. Just being careful for his sake.)

But I haven't heard from him yet. This is good news in a way as it suggests he made the plane. If he were stuck in Lviv I think he'd have replied immediately like he has before. I expect he'll text me when he has the opportunity.

Mike

I would like to take some time to clarify some things about biological testing and some of the problems that go with the testing. Mods if this is not helpful just delete the post.

Sampling biological systems, human flu virus in this case, runs into a number of problems.
Taking the sample. You have a training issue with the person taking the sample, if they have not been trained to do it right they can botch the sample collection and you can get a false positive or negative when the test is ran. This means that the person ether does not get the sample in the right place or the right amount and it shows negative or they contaminated the sample and it comes out positive when there is not virus there. It happens one way or the other all the time.

Sample transport. Samples have a "hold time" that they need to be testing in. What this means is that you have so many hours or days to run the sample or the sample is not considered a valid sample. It also will have a temperature that the sample must be stored at to prevent degradation. It the sample takes to long to get to the lab or it is not stored at the correct temperature you will get bad sample results.

Laboratory testing. This varies with the test method and the QC/QA program that the lab is working under but what it comes down to is that a lot of things can go wrong in the lab. That is why you make multiple runs on the sample with a standard to compare your results ageist. You may also have a sample spike in the test and some other quality control methods. This comes down to quality of the technician preparing the sample, running the test and the standards that are used to calibrate the test equipment. What you will have to do after running your samples is to run a "correlation coefficient" that will give the technician a indication of the accuracy of the test. If they are not doing this you will get some bad numbers coming out of the lab.

Statistical analysis of the data. This is generally done by some one up the food chain in the testing system. What this means is that, in a good system, a predetermined and validated statistical model is used to go through the data and make determinations of the significance of the information gathered. If the model being used is flawed then you are going to get some data that is of questionable reliability.

So what happens is say 100 samples are sent to the lab. 20 of the samples were not collected correctly and are not ran by the lab as they are not valide samples. 15 samples were not shipped correctly and arive at the lab after to many days/hours and are not valid and are not ran. The ice melted in 5 of the sample boxes and were to hot when they get to the lab and they are not ran. 5 sample when ran are found to not fall within the QC/QA standards of the lab and are not reported. And 5 samples when put into the statistical model fall outside the acceptance region of the statistical model and are not reported.

Results 50% of the samples are reported positive for the flu.

This is an extreme case but in the years that I supervised a lab I have seen each one of these show up on the samples we were dealing with and required re-sampling.

reply to post by nikiano


Dr Nimans company doesn't make vaccines, he holds a patent on a new and novel method for making better ones for license to vaccine companies. He's proven himself to be honest and independent in my opinion. He is not an industry insider in any way and is actually a pariah if anything.

Honestly I don't care if you find him credible or not, I'm not trying to convince you of anything. This has gone beyond discussing the data and into a debate on your conspiracy beliefs. It's not my purpose nor do I want to try and change your beliefs.

I want to know if there's been a mutation, period. I'm not interested in alternate causes for the ill and dead. WHO isn't alone in stating that people are infected with or died from the H1N1 virus and its complications.

[edit on 5-11-2009 by ecoparity]

Originally posted by waterdoctor
I would like to take some time to clarify some things about biological testing and some of the problems that go with the testing....

Yes, you are exactly correct. Excellent post.

And I'll add something else to that.... if the samples were destroyed in shipping, or died , or the ice melted, the lab should have said something like: samples not useable. They said nothing about the remaining 21 samples.

In addition, some virus simply cannot live outside the human body at all, and die almost immediately die upon exposure to air. The other 21 samples could have had a virus like that.

But there should have been a reason why the other 21 sample results were not released, if the results were not being hidden intentionally.

[edit on 5-11-2009 by nikiano]

Originally posted by nikiano
And I'll add something else to that.... if the samples were destroyed in shipping, or died , or the ice melted, the lab should have said something like: samples not useable. They said nothing about the remaining 21 samples.

In addition, some virus simply cannot live outside the human body at all, and die almost immediately die upon exposure to air. The other 21 samples could have had a virus like that.

But there should have been a reason why the other 21 sample results were not released, if the results were not being hidden intentionally.

Excuse me, Ma'am...

Originally posted by Cadbury
Just a slight correction on your maths, here; If there were 31 samples, only 16 samples would be remaining after the 15 confirmed as H1N1.

reply to post by JustMike


THank You Mike!!!

We all down here need a little of humor.
But its getting black.
People calling each other and insted of "Hi, how are You"
getting "Hi, You still alive?"

oh, yeah, the best business in Lviv area is to sew medical masks.
What a naive people.

regards, from the heart of West UKraine,
by the way Lviv is not so nice as Prague,
but its indeed very beautifull, they call it little Paris.

Now im starting propoganda

Originally posted by nikiano

Yes, you are exactly correct. Excellent post.

And I'll add something else to that.... if the samples were destroyed in shipping, or died , or the ice melted, the lab should have said something like: samples not useable. They said nothing about the remaining 21 samples.

In addition, some virus simply cannot live outside the human body at all, and die almost immediately die upon exposure to air. The other 21 samples could have had a virus like that.

But there should have been a reason why the other 21 sample results were not released, if the results were not being hidden intentionally.

The problem I have run into with the problem of bad samples is that no one wants to admit that they made puppies in the process and there is a good ol boy system that tends to protect every one in the chain.

I do wish Asen well but if nobody else has said it, I will. If it turns out to be the dreaded bug, I am glad I am not on that plane with him. I wonder if people here would just shrug their shoulders philosophically if they or theirs were on the same flight and became seriously ill (or worse) as a result.

Originally posted by ecoparity
reply to post by nikiano

 

If 15 of the samples all show H1N1 the others will as well.

Of course they all will show H1N1....if there's a conspiracy involved to make everyone think that it's H1N1 to get everyone to take the vaccine!

Otherwise, it's pretty rare to have all samples show the same results....most of the time there will be at least a few samples contaminated and unusable.

Maybe you know something that we don't, but most people in the world (at least, most physicians) are going to insist on seeing the entire lab report on all the samples before they come to any concrete conclusions.

They'll want to see if the samples were lost or destroyed or unable to use. Or if they are still inconclusive. They will not blindly come to the conclusion that all samples will show H1N1...especially since there are numerous reports coming out of eastern Europe, from physicians and hospitals, that have said that in many of these patients, the virus is not behaving like H1N1.

There seems to be a mix of H1N1 and something else going on.

I myself want to know what the rest of the lab report says....or where it went.




[edit on 5-11-2009 by nikiano]

reply to post by nikiano

I did ask for historical data, as in where did you read about cat to human transmission?
So where is this reputable source(s) on cat to human influenza and where did you get this idea on how logic works?

And we can skip anymore nonsense about being proven wrong is baiting, which you have readily use as an excuse to play victim and assign false derogatory labels. I am not interested in your ego games, just the facts pertaining to the flu. Start supporting your conjecture with reputable links as in prove it. Show me the links.

Add a ferret into humans infecting animals with H1N1 pool. That's assuming the testing is not prone to errors and/or people aren't making up nonsense to push an agenda e.g. Saddam has WMDs.

More info:
----------------------
CDC: Transmission of Influenza Viruses from Animals to People
Influenza A viruses are found in many different animals, including ducks, chickens, pigs, whales, horses and seals.

Antigenic shift, the process by which at least two different strains of a virus (or different viruses), especially influenza, combine to form a new subtype having a mixture of the surface antigens of the two original strains.

Logic, a fundamental part of a classical education, and is now an integral part of disciplines such as mathematics, computer science, and linguistics. Topics include validity, fallacies and paradoxes, reasoning using provability and arguments involving causality and time. e.g. cat to human H1N1 transmission = 0

Fallacy, In logic and rhetoric, a fallacy is a misconception resulting from incorrect reasoning in argumentation. e.g. humans give cats flu, therefore cats give humans flu.

reply to post by former_ussr

Yes, people who had to endure 40 years of Communist control tend to have pretty black humor... I can well believe the new-style "How are you" greeting.

About sewing surgical masks... My wife hard about that the other day and she was stunned. As I might have mentioned, she worked in health care all her life (now retired) and she just shook her head in disbelief. Sewing the masks makes them pretty useless.

Useful tip for anyone: The best way is not to sew them, but to use long strips of "mikropore" medical adhesive tape. Stick it on the edges of the mask and then fold it along its length so it's now stuck to itself -- and then you can tie it just like the normal "ties" that masks have. This works fine and it means there are no holes in the mask from sewing needles. You can even use the mikropore to stick to elastic. (But to use sewing needles? That is crazy...)

Regards,

Mike

reply to post by Cadbury


Sorry! You are so right. I can't add today. Thanks for the correction.

This may be outdated, but here is their most current update:

SITUATION UPDATE : 2009-11-05 04:25:09 - Ukraine

Event ID: UKR-20090602-209
Date & Time: 2009.11.05 05:23:23 [UTC]
Area: Ukraine, Statewide
Description:

Ukraine\'s deadly flu outbreak widened on Wednesday, as government officials announced new emergency measures in an attempt to control the spread of the illness. More than 478,000 people were registered with national health authorities as suffering from the flu, of whom 17 had confirmed cases of swine flu, Health Ministry spokeswoman Lyudmila Luharska said. The nationwide death count from flu-related illnesses since late October stood at 86, Luharska said at a Kiev press conference, according to the Ukrainska Pravda website. Flu infection was highest in Ukraine\'s western Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk provinces, where reports of flu to health authorities had doubled since the weekend, she said. Four deaths from the virulent swine flu strain were confirmed as of Thursday, Luharska said.

One man who died of swine flu was a Kiev resident. A second person in the Ukrainian capital was suspected of having been infected with swine flu. The Kiev swine flu death marked the first jump of swine flu from Ukraine\'s western provinces, where the flu outbreak has been concentrated so far, to Kiev, Ukraine\'s largest metropolitan area. Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said at a meeting that her government would enact more emergency measures to control the disease\'s spread and to combat retail shortages of anti-flu drugs and protective anti-infection masks. Tymoshenko said the government would prepare a plan "within a week" to establish a nationwide chain of state-run drug sales centres to combat what she called hoarding and price-gouging by the private health industry.

The centres, each offering a limited assortment of some 100 basic anti-cold and flu drugs, would operate in government-run hospitals and clinics, and sell medical supplies at a marginal price mark-up, Tymoshenko said. Tymoshenko also instructed Foreign Minister Petro Poroshenko to obtain a "special pandemic price" in negotiations with international drug companies for emergency deliveries of anti-flu drugs to Ukraine. Government textile and clothes factories have received 1 million metres of gauze and cheesecloth from state reserves, Tymoshenko said,and emergency production of surgical masks was beginning. Initial deliveries of cloth masks would reach the general public in seven days, "sufficient to provide every Ukrainian citizen two masks," she said. Factories in Kharkiv and the hard-hit Lviv region would produce the masks, according to Ukrainian media reports. Tymoshenko on Monday said that if necessary, her government would commit 6 million metres of g! auze and cheesecloth to the emergency mask production programme. Tymoshenko was scheduled to travel to the Lviv province, the epicentre of the flu outbreak, on Thursday afternoon, according to a Cabinet of Ministers statement.

Dead(s): 86
Infected (Susp.): 0
Infected (Conf.): 478000
Quaranten: 0

Posted:2009-11-05 04:25:09 [UTC]

reply to post by nikiano


Perhaps you should contact the WHO and ask them then?
I really can't help you, your belief that they can and will lie about the virus is central to everything. I've tried to explain to you - there are too many independent researchers who can make analysis of their own without even using the same samples or data the WHO touched.

Even if they were to try and lie about the virus itself we will find out from any number of these other researchers.

I really don't understand what it is you have such an issue with. You don't believe that H1N1 is the cause of the infections and deaths in Ukraine? O.K. I'm not upset by that but I've reached the end point of the WHO discussion. There's nothing I could possibly say that will have any effect on your beliefs.

Please don't take that as me being angry or hostile, I don't feel either towards you.

Originally posted by unicorn1
I do wish Asen well but if nobody else has said it, I will. If it turns out to be the dreaded bug, I am glad I am not on that plane with him. I wonder if people here would just shrug their shoulders philosophically if they or theirs were on the same flight and became seriously ill (or worse) as a result.

Not sure if I follow you exactly. Your post seems to imply that Asen is the only person on that flight who might be infected and that all the other passengers are unaware of the circumstances. However, that is far from the reality.

The plane took off from Snilow airport in Lviv, a city of 1 million which has been one of the focal centers of the outbreak, with around 10% of its population infected. It's a regional airport that serves that area, not a main hub like Kiev. It's hard to imagine that anyone on that plane would not be fully aware of what has been going on, and it's possible that several of them might already be infected or at least suspect they are.

Forgive me if I've somehow misunderstood you but I feel I needed to clarify what the situation is. No offense intended.

Mike

Edited to fix a posting glitch. (I meant to quote and not just link. Sorry.)

[edit on 5/11/09 by JustMike]

Polish Health Minister cut off after accusing WHO of spreading disinformation in Ukraine
November 5, 2009
digdeep1.wordpress.com...

TV transmission of a live parliamentary debate in Poland was cut off for fifteen minutes today after the Polish Health Minister Ewa Kopacz said that WHO was spreading disinformation in the Ukraine concerning the „swine flu“ pandemic.

Kopacz has come under fierce criticism from some quarters after she said she will resist pressure to press ahead with the mass vaccination of the population with untested swine flu jabs that could cause damage and death to more people than the swine flu.

The unexpected interruption of the TV and website transmission of the debate in parliament will fuel fears that portions of the Polish media and government allied to big pharma and banks are censoring critics of WHO and of the toxic and untested swine flu jabs.

The Polish Health Minister was cut off in the middle of answering questions on the „swine flu“ jab and footage of French President Nicholas Sarkozy was shown, it is reported.

Kopacz has been celebrated as a „hero“ by the general public for her stance in putting the health of the general public before the profits of big pharma and WHO.

In looking at the information on the number of samples sent and reported at this point, without doing a statistical validity test for the number of samples reported, I think that the sample set is way to small to generate compelling conclusions at this point. Only if the dominant strain of the virus were to have a mutation would it be found in the samples reported at this time unless by just dumb luck. If there is a mutation reported in any of the samples then we have a big problem.

I at this point am trying to figure out if all the missteps are a result of a well thought out, well carried out plan that has hundreds of really smart people involved or this is just a case of complete and total dogs breakfast by a large number of incompetent people. I am sorry to say that I am leaning towards the dogs breakfast.

Quarantine in Ukraine extended to the 10th region - Kirovogradsk oblast.
news.liga.net...