Asteroid explosion over Indonesia raises fears about Earth's defences, page 1
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Topic started on 27-10-2009 @ 12:42 PM by Silcone Synapse

Asteroid explosion over Indonesia raises fears about Earth's defences



www.telegraph.co.uk...

On 8 October, the rock crashed into the atmosphere above South Sulawesi, Indonesia. The blast was heard by monitoring stations 10,000 miles away, according to a report by scientists at the University of Western Ontario.

Scientists are concerned that it was not spotted by any telescopes, and that had it been larger it could have caused a disaster.
The asteroid, estimated to have been around 10 metres (30ft) across, hit the atmosphere at an estimated 45,000mph.
(visit the link for the full news article)

Edit,fix link

[edit on 27/10/2009 by Silcone Synapse]


reply posted on 27-10-2009 @ 12:42 PM by Silcone Synapse
This shows how easy it is for a space based object to be missed by earth based observers.
Had the asteroid been a little bit bigger,this could have been catastropic,the story goes on to say.
It makes you wonder how many other asteroids there are on a collision course with Earth that no one has yet noticed.

[url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/6444895/Asteroid-explosion-over-Indonesia-raises-fears-about-Earths-defences.html]www.telegraph.co.uk[/u rl]
(visit the link for the full news article)

From NASA:

A report from Elizabeth Silber and Peter Brown at the University of Western Ontario indicates that several international very-long wavelength infrasound detectors recorded the blast and fixed the position near the coastal city of Bone in South Sulawesi, island of Sulewesi. They note that the blast was in the 10 to 50 kT range with the higher end of this range being more likely. Assuming an estimated size of about 5-10 meters in diameter, we would expect a fireball event of this magnitude about once every 2 to 12 years on average. As a rule, the most common types of stony asteroids would not be expected to cause ground damage unless their diameters were about 25 meters in diameter or larger.


neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

No telescope spotted the asteroid ahead of its impact. That is not surprising, given that only a tiny fraction of asteroids smaller than 100 metres across have been catalogued, says Tim Spahr, director of the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Yet objects as small as 20 or 30 metres across may be capable of doing damage on the ground, he says. "If you want to find the smallest objects you have to build more, larger telescopes," says Spahr. "A survey that finds all of the 20-metre objects will cost probably multiple billions of dollars."


www.newscientist.com...

[edit on 27/10/2009 by Silcone Synapse]


reply posted on 27-10-2009 @ 02:57 PM by andy1033
reply to post by Erasurehead



How do you know that there are not loads of people not looking out there. Did someone not say once, that half our sats point outwards, for some reason. Was it stanton Friedman?

I am sure there is some group somewhere doing what you think, they are not doing.

I would not worry about it.

All the money they spend on black projects, you cannot tell me they never thought to protect the earth. I think its protected already.


reply posted on 27-10-2009 @ 03:19 PM by Erasurehead
Originally posted by andy1033
reply to
post by Erasurehead



How do you know that there are not loads of people not looking out there. Did someone not say once, that half our sats point outwards, for some reason. Was it stanton Friedman?

I am sure there is some group somewhere doing what you think, they are not doing.

I would not worry about it.

All the money they spend on black projects, you cannot tell me they never thought to protect the earth. I think its protected already.


You can keep thinking that if it makes you feel better.

There is not enough funding or people available to watch the entire sky for potential collisions. Another thing is that there really isn't anything they could do about it anyway. There currently is no plan for dealing with a planet killing impact.


reply posted on 27-10-2009 @ 03:41 PM by C.H.U.D.
Originally posted by Silcone Synapse
Had the asteroid been a little bit bigger,this could have been catastropic,the story goes on to say.



A little bigger? No...

Earth's atmosphere is quite capable of absorbing the impacts of large asteroids. It takes a really big asteroid to make it to the ground and potentially cause serious damage.

Perhaps if it was double the diameter (around 10x the mass of this one?) it might have made it down to the ground with some portion of it's cosmic velocity intact. Many will just explode high in the atmosphere relatively harmlessly (like this one did) due to the forces involved during atmospheric entry.

The energy released can be comparable to that delivered by a nuclear weapon in such an event, and with really big objects, it can cause damage on the ground, much like the blast in Tunguska in 1908 which was thought to have been caused by a fragment of a comet.

Also, the chances of something big hitting a populated area are still very low. Two thirds of our planet is ocean, and something like 80% of the remaining land surface is basically remote, and uninhabited.

As for those saying we should have spotted it before hand or we did have the capability, you have been watching too much Star Trek NG... we cant just "order a scan of the entire quadrant"!

Our solar system is huge, and even the larger/more dangerous objects are tiny in comparison. On average, most asteroids are darker than coal, so they are extremely dim and hard to detect optically. Right now optical detection is the only way we can find NEOs, and even when these pass by relatively close to us they are so dim that they are 10's if not 100's or times dimmer than the unaided eye can detect under the most pristine and unpolluted skies.

Most of these objects are kicked out of the asteroid belt, where there are potentially millions of rocks capable of destroying earth as we know it. We can't even resolve objects of this size (1 km +) that reside there, and yet people expect us to know of the existance of every tiny 10m asteroid. Well, you're living in cloud cuckoo land if that's what you think.

Asteroids have been hitting Earth since it was formed, and will continue to do so no matter what we do, at least until we learn to mitigate the threat, which is still a long way off.

It's not even been a year since the first recorded observation of an asteroid before it entered our atmosphere was made. I think we have to learn to crawl first, before we can walk, let alone run.

[edit on 27-10-2009 by C.H.U.D.]


reply posted on 27-10-2009 @ 03:50 PM by andy1033
Originally posted by Silcone Synapse
reply to
post by projectvxn



That "lady" was werner von braun,I believe



The poster meant werner von braun assistant. It was on disclosure videos, where she spoke of it.

I still say we have weapons already that can destroy asteroids, even if they where big enough to come through atmosphere.

I think there is plenty of different weapons out there, we never hear of.



reply posted on 27-10-2009 @ 04:30 PM by Silcone Synapse
reply to post by C.H.U.D.



op by C.H.U.DA little bigger? No...

Earth's atmosphere is quite capable of absorbing the impacts of large asteroids. It takes a really big asteroid to make it to the ground and potentially cause serious damage.

Perhaps of it was double the diameter (around 10x the mass of this one?) it might have made it down to the ground with some portion of it's cosmic velocity intact. Many will just explode high in the atmosphere relatively harmlessly (like this one did) due to the forces involved during atmospheric entry.


Well thats good to hear.I imagine asteroids of the size you describe may be easier to spot,and hopefully we will be able to do something about them in the not too distant future.

reply to post by andy1033


The poster meant werner von braun assistant. It was on disclosure videos, where she spoke of it.


I realised that after I posted...But Projectvxns comment gave me a proper chuckle,as I pictured Von Braun hard at work in Peenemunde wearing a dress and wig.

Thanx Projectvxn,that was a cracker.


reply posted on 27-10-2009 @ 08:54 PM by C.H.U.D.
reply to post by CAPT PROTON



You bring up a good point, but if you look at the evidence left by past impacts in recent history, lumps of iron that big are relatively rare. Rare enough that they only hit us on a time-scale of the order of tens of thousands of years, so although we could in theory be hit by something that big (and hard) tomorrow, realistically the chance of it happening in our lifetimes is quite small. There's probably more chance of someone winning the lottery 5 weeks in a row, with the same numbers.

As 27jd says, the gas giants like Jupiter and Saturn sweep up many of the dangerous objects that might otherwise hit us. Without them we would probably be pummeled!

In fact, he is also spot on with what he said about this being about the right level of "bombardment". We actually need some objects to hit us, and we would not be here today because of it if we had not been hit in the past. It is thought that most of our water came from comets.

For life to start (if it did indeed start here), it turns out you need not too many, and not too few impacts.


reply to post by Silcone Synapse



Yes, in general, the larger it is, the easier it is to spot. However, it's very hard to continue to monitor all of the sky all of the time.

Right now we can only do it bit by bit, and there are blind spots due to not enough resources in the southern hemisphere as well as the part of the sky that the sun is in at any given time.

It's very hard to spot even large objects if they happen to approach you from the direction of the sun. For that we need space based platforms dedicated to watching for objects 24/7.

We also need to figure out the best way to deal with something if we do spot on heading in our direction. There are lots of good ideas, but nothing has been tested, and until it is we do not know what potential flaws there may be.

Trying to use weapons against it could potentially make things worse... even if we did have some kind of space-based weapons as some are suggesting here. It's not quite as simple as just sending Bruce Willis in to "nuke it".

Stuff like this is not worth worrying about IMHO due to the low probabilities involved. It's mostly all bark and no bite, so just enjoy the fireworks if you are lucky enough to see them or even feel/hear them!
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