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Graduating During A Recession Has Big, Long-Lasting Negative Consequences

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posted on Oct, 25 2009 @ 06:18 PM

Over the summer, there was a tendency for rising senior interns to ask me if I had any advice for someone set to be graduating into the face of a horrible recession. Unfortunately, the best advice I can think of is “hope the United States rapidly becomes more committed to equality and social justice” because the empirical evidence is that you’re screwed.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.

Matthew Yglesias points out that a one-percentage-point increase in the national unemployment rate is associated with a 6 to 7 percent loss in initial wages, and while the negative effects decrease over time there is still a significant impact 15 years later.

And he's talking about only a 1% increase in unemployment, not the numbers we're seeing now.

You never quite catch up to what your earnings would have been in a strong economy.

Yglesias speaks mostly about college graduates. I expect the numbers are even worse for high school graduates and below.

Still better to graduate than not, I think, but you'll be feeling the effects years down the road.

Good news, I guess, for those who profit off of cheap labor but not so good for the laborers.

[edit on 25-10-2009 by Sestias]

posted on Oct, 25 2009 @ 06:42 PM
Holy s*** since I'm 14 that means to future for me! I guess I better be homeless

posted on Oct, 25 2009 @ 07:13 PM
Did you not read between the lines when the president said that people must go back to school and re educate themselves. Sure he was talking to the older Folks, but what he meant was. There are no jobs out there, If you go back to “school’ and educate yourself further you’ll “hopefully” be better qualified to be employed.

Which is true, but what he’s trying to hide is the Unemployment rate, which is a lot higher than what they tell you on T.V. In fact there is 3 of them, each taking into account different factors. The highest one takes all factors into account and is around 20%.

I’d say go back to school and learn something else.! Yeah get into more debt !

posted on Oct, 25 2009 @ 09:49 PM
reply to post by SharkBait

Which is true, but what he’s trying to hide is the Unemployment rate, which is a lot higher than what they tell you on T.V. In fact there is 3 of them, each taking into account different factors. The highest one takes all factors into account and is around 20%.

Just to set the record straight, therre are SIX different measures of unemployment, U1 through U6:

* U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
* U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
* U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
* U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
* U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
* U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons.
The latest figures available, for September, 2009 show U6 at 17%, not 20%.

posted on Oct, 25 2009 @ 09:59 PM
So by Matthew Yglesias' logic, should people stay in school until the recession is over?

How about the Big, Long-Lasting Negative Consequences other things, like oh...... say........tuition?

I guess that one missed the deadline.

When you have to go into debt, just so you can get out of it, there is something wrong with that scenario.

What about the people that can't afford higher education because of the recession?

I guess there are no Big, Long-Lasting Negative Consequences to that either, at least none that would be fit to write about.

posted on Oct, 25 2009 @ 10:03 PM
reply to post by reticledc

One suggestion that I would make to college graduates is to try to find a low-paying, or even non-paying internship, in the short haul. The experience is invaluable, and if the company likes your work, they may be able to find a spot for you on a more permanent basis. This is the same advice that I gave to grads that were having a hard time finding jobs, when I was still teaching, and several of them took the advice, and most of those ended up with full time jobs with those companies.

posted on Oct, 25 2009 @ 10:28 PM
On one hand college is a complete waste of money nowadays. On the other it's becoming the high school diploma. Without one you'll never get ahead. What's really sad is all the kids that can't or aren't even graduating high school these days. I am an RN and I chose the profession for many reasons. I think it's one of the last few hybrid careers so to speak. Meaning, you can find a good paying job, that is in demand, fairly technical, fairly rewarding with lots of advancement opportunities and ability to make a living WHILE you further your career and you can get done in a few years. I have a two year college degree, but it's also two+ years of prereqs. There aren't many careers left like nursing. Engineering, law, medicine, teaching (masters is usually preferred) all require lots of education and advanced degrees yet nursing pays probably as much (save for an MD) starting out.

posted on Oct, 25 2009 @ 10:29 PM
reply to post by ProfEmeritus

By no means am I saying that there are not some solutions, and I thank you for pointing that out.
Given that we are bordering on depression, I would suggest that every bit of preemptive help that can be utilized should be.
Which is where the bulk of any stimulus should be directed.
Everyone loves to attack the after effects instead of the causes.

[edit on 10/25/2009 by reticledc]

posted on Oct, 26 2009 @ 01:32 PM
reply to post by reticledc

I don't think Yglesias is telling young people to stay in school. He doesn't really offer any advice as to what they should do, except hope for a country that becomes more committed to equality and social justice.

In the best of worlds a good college education would be attainable at a community college or other state-funded university without going into debt for the rest of one's life.

The job market being what it is, however, a degree from a more prestigious institution often does open some doors. But there's the debt factor to weigh.

The truth is that many employers just want to see a degree to prove that a job applicant is capable of focused effort and perseverance. Most don't consider a degree sufficient to qualify one for any particular job they have available, just a means of pre-screening. They usually have to train the new hire in the specific job they are to perform and that costs money, time and resources. Companies are therefore choosy and very few entry level positions offer high starting salaries.

Of course students can choose not to go to college at all. There are some skilled trades like plumbing, heating and air conditioning, etc. that require training but not necessarily higher education and can provide a good living. As a rule, though, the lower and working classes suffer even more in a recession than college graduates, as they often don't have savings to fall back on.

So it's like being caught between the devil and the deep blue sea -- you have higher lifetime earnings on average with a college degree than without--but it takes money to make money. Just as it takes money to start a small business or begin almost any financial enterprise.

I personally would encourage young people to go ahead and get a college education, even in a community college, rather than drop out. Prof. Emeritus has a good suggestion when he mentions internships, I think.

It's a case of damned if you do and damned if you don't. It's each person's individual call.

posted on Oct, 26 2009 @ 01:37 PM
reply to post by Zosynspiracy

My husband is an R.N. and he also has good things to say about it. He makes more money than I do as a teacher. We recommend nursing as a career for those who are considering one.

posted on Oct, 26 2009 @ 01:38 PM
reply to post by Sestias

It's not just a matter of getting a college education anymore. That window is closing. Now as college degrees become a dime a dozen it matters what you get your degree in. There's a big difference between getting your degree in psychology vs. engineering.

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