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WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. (WLFI) - Two Purdue University math researchers have predicted the novel H1N1 flu will peak so early that planned vaccinations will not have a large effect on the number of people infected.
Sherry Towers, from Purdue's statistics department, and Zhilan Feng, from Purdue's math department, used a mathematical model to predict the spread of the disease. They used data collected by the Centers for Disease Control in May, June, July and August.
The result? The model predicted that H1N1 infections will reach their peak in either the week before or the week after Halloween.
The researchers said this early peak for the disease mean that the vaccination campaign will only reduce infections by, at most, 6%. However, as the model also predicted that 63% of the US population will have been infected by the end of the year, a 6% reduction could still mean that the vaccinations could save thousands of lives.
Department of Health and Human Services Secretarial Declaration of a Public Heath Emergency
Declaration: The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency; or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.
Declare an emergency under section 564 of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (FFDCA) authorizing emergency use of an investigational product. In this case, the Secretary must determine under section 319 of the PHS Act that there is a public health emergency that affects or has significant potential to affect national security that involves a specified chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) agent. The Secretary’s declaration of an emergency under section 564 of the FFDCA can also be based on a: a) determination by the Secretary of Homeland Security that there is an actual or significant potential for a domestic emergency involving heightened risk of attack with an CBRN agent; or b) determination by the Secretary of the Department of Defense that there is an actual or significant potential for a military emergency involving heightened risk of attack to U.S. military forces with a CBRN.
The President may declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act by transmitting a proclamation to Congress that is published in the Federal Register. Upon such declaration, authorities or powers made available by statute for use in an emergency are exercised only as specified by the President in his declaration or an Executive Order. The emergency may be terminated by Presidential proclamation or a joint resolution by Congress. In regard to international emergency economic powers, the President may declare an emergency to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the U.S. to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the U.S.
sanctions under the Emergency Medial Treatment and Active Labor Act (EMTALA) for redirection of an individual to another location to receive a medical screening examination pursuant to a state emergency preparedness plan or transfer of an individual who has not been stabilized if the transfer arises out of emergency circumstances. A waiver of EMTALA requirements is effective only if actions under the waiver do not discriminate on the basis of a patient’s source of payment or ability to pay;
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel posted this photo essay showing the HUGE lines of people being forced to wait outside in the rain for flu shots.
Photo six is posted below- Mike O’Keefe brought a plywood sign, “Welcome to Government health care.”