US - Economy in Recovery or just smoke and mirrors?

Originally posted by ugie1028
this economy is watered down with fake numbers, and massive govt spending.

This is the case world wide. The US isnt the only country trying to prime the pump with Government spending.

For example
Fiscal Stimulus Isn't Forever In China

It's getting harder for the naysayers to doubt China's economic recovery. It's also going to be a challenge for Beijing to rely on stimulus spending to keep growth going.

For sure, the $585 billion fiscal stimulus enacted last autumn has been a success, in terms of getting China's GDP growth rate back above the magic 8% level: it reached 8.9% on-year in the third quarter. The stimulus, and the accompanying expansion in bank lending seen in China this year, have underpinned growth through the global downturn.

Nor is the fiscal stimulus over. It was always designed to be a two-year program at least. The central government--responsible for about a third of the total extra spending--will have disbursed only half of its $173 billion allocation by the end of this year.

[edit on 29-10-2009 by SLAYER69]

reply to post by ugie1028

this is just plain manipulation, plain and simple, they play some good news to keep peoples hopes up instead of telling the truth.

There might be some manipulation going on. But is there any proof of that?

Is the obama administration using different formulas to estimate than the previous administration? As far as I can tell, they aren't.

Job loss is happening still. But aren't jobs the last part of a recovering economy?

And don't people lose their houses more when unemployment is higher?

reply to post by jam321



The deal is everybody states that it's been the "Stimulus" spending that has kept the US afloat. But only about 1/4 of the stimulus package money earmarked has been spent. The rest will come next year.

The bulk of this growth has come from the Consumer.

Meltdown 101: Why did GDP rise _ and will it last?

CONSUMER SPENDING

HOW MUCH IT GREW: 3.4 percent rate in third quarter, best showing since early 2007.

CONTRIBUTION TO OVERALL GDP: 2.36 percentage points of the 3.5 percent third-quarter growth in GDP came from consumer spending. Car sales alone represented 1 percentage point of total growth, reflecting the success of the government's Cash for Clunkers program.

PROSPECTS: This is the biggest question facing the fledgling recovery, given that consumer spending represents 70 percent of total economic activity. Can consumers keep spending with unemployment at a 26-year high of 9.8 percent and expected to keep rising until next summer?

reply to post by SLAYER69


I agree with you about the stimulus.

Word has it that consumers will spend less this year during the holidays. How do you think that will effect the recovery?

Currently, Americans estimate they will spend an average of $801 on Christmas gifts this year, down from $909 reported in October of last year.

www.gallup.com...

On the positive side,

Tax refunds are right around the corner. Can't wait to spend mine.

I'm trying to find the source I read the other day about the exact figure of the stimulus that has spent already. The news sites are flooded with the "Growth" stories this is the closest I could find at the moment.


US economy grows 3.5 percent in third quarter

Only about half of the stimulus money has been spent so far. Congress is currently debating extending some of its measures, including longer unemployment benefits and tax credits for home buyers.

Originally posted by jam321
reply to post by SLAYER69

 

I agree with you about the stimulus.

Word has it that consumers will spend less this year during the holidays. How do you think that will effect the recovery?

I'm not going to be overly optimistic.

Let's just consider the present situation and think for a second. Right now we have a whole lot of nothing going. If they want to look at ghosts of Christmas past spending spree then yes it will be down but if we consider that a little bit of something is better than a lot of nothing and we see sales increase that is always a good sign

Especially since the American Card holders have paid down their personal debt.

reply to post by SLAYER69


Here you go as of Sept. 9. Might want to post that graph they got on there.

We updated our Stimulus Progress Bar [1], which shows total stimulus spending thus far as $63 billion in tax cuts plus $89 billion in direct spending from federal agencies. That’s a total of $152 billion—just shy of 20 percent of the $792 billion authorized by Congress under the Recovery Act.

However, as we noted last week [2], that spending continues to be spread unevenly among different federal agencies. As our Progress Bar shows, 14 agencies have spent less than 5 percent of the total funding available to them. A handful, including the departments of Energy, Defense and the Interior, have each spent less than 2 percent.

www.propublica.org...

Especially since the American Card holders have paid down their personal debt.

This gives me hope that consumers will be out spending more than the estimate. Savings

[edit on 29-10-2009 by jam321]

Originally posted by jam321

This gives me hope that consumers will be out spending more than the estimate. Savings

I don't know. Several surveys out there show conflicting reports

U.S. consumers optimistic ahead of holidays: survey

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bruised U.S. retailers might find some solace in Deloitte's most recent survey that showed American consumers were more optimistic about the economy as the holiday shopping season kicks off.

The annual holiday survey released on Wednesday showed fears about the recession slowly subsiding, with about 54 percent of the participants expecting the economy to improve in 2010. This compared with just 28 percent responding favorably last year.

The optimism is also trickling into Americans' shopping plans for the holiday.

More than half of consumers -- about 51 percent of those surveyed -- hope to spend more or the same on the holidays, an improvement from last-year's 41 percent, Deloitte said.

U.S. holiday spending could again be cut: survey

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) Two-thirds of U.S. adults plan to spend less this holiday season and 6 percent say they still are carrying debt from last year's holiday purchases, according a new Consumer Reports Holiday Shopping Poll released on Thursday.

As recession lingers on Main Street and job losses mount, 65 percent of Americans say they plan to cut overall holiday expenses such as gifts, travel and entertaining.

Originally posted by jam321
reply to post by SLAYER69

 

Here you go as of Sept. 9. Might want to post that graph they got on there.

Here you go.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/a5581d412cf5.gif[/atsimg]

The bulk of this growth has come from the Consumer

reply to post by SLAYER69


This is SO true,and this is-I feel-why they are putting out so many 'feel good' reports (real or imagined)about economic growth and recovery.

Feel good,gain confidence,and the people will loosen the hold on their wallets and purse strings-spend more,stimulate the economy,and tada,they have moved the pawn exactly as planned.

After the holidays when the bills come rolling in and we are no better off financially than we were before....but the 1st quarter will look good,gov't will be happy,throw more happy words around--most people are scratching their heads again,wondering who these people are that are doing so well,but believe it MUST be true because the numbers say so

We must learn to change our habits and trust our own instincts,otherwise this cycle just continues.Live within our means,as hard as that is,and put a little back each month-even if it's only 5 bucks--it's 5 bucks more in your pocket than not.
---
...and to whoever that was who mentioned Obama not doing anything that Bush didn't do or some such thing...who cares? We're living IN the moment.I mean,Bush was a jerk,is that what you wanted to hear,but he can't hurt or help us at this point,so... who cares?

reply to post by SLAYER69


Now we just need to find a way to not create a double dip W recession.
Another cash for clunkers for 2010?

[edit on 29-10-2009 by Eurisko2012]

Here's a interesting news story just released and it's after the fact.
Home sales rise to highest level in 2.5 years

WASHINGTON - Home sales surged for the second month in a row in October, climbing to the highest level in 2 1/2 years as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of an expiring tax credit.

Home sales nationwide are now up nearly 36 percent from their bottom in January, data Monday showed, though they are still 16 percent below the peak in autumn 2005. At the current sales pace, there is only a 7-month supply of homes on the market and in some areas there are bidding wars.

Despite some economic improvements, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Monday it's still too soon to declare that the budding recovery will last. (Dec. 7)

Growth of U.S. Economy Fastest in 6 Years

WASHINGTON—The U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis today released the advance estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2009. Real GDP rose 5.7 percent at an annual rate, the second consecutive advance and the strongest increase since the third quarter of 2003.

"Today's strong GDP showing represents important economic progress that must now be translated into new jobs," Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said. "Further Recovery Act spending, measures like the $5,000 small business tax credit President Obama announced today and growing confidence among U.S. businesses will help put Americans back to work.”

reply to post by SLAYER69


We have been down for 2-3 years. It is only a matter of time before things start picking up.

This is why I predict Obama will win reelection. Unlike the first Bush, Obama had a bad economy at the beginning of his election.

Of course, there are still many issues that our politicians have to address to avoid a repeat of what we have been going through.

reply to post by jam321


As I stated on the first page of this thread last fall. I was trying to look at it from a battle damage stand point. As in what do we have that is still good. I'll post some Economists reaction and provide a link

Check it out.
Economists React: Too Soon to Declare ‘Recovery Accomplished’

#Today’s report that GDP grew at a 5.7% annual rate is good news, but it’s far too early to break out the champagne and declare ‘recovery accomplished.’ Even if this growth rate were to be sustained for 3 years we would still not create enough jobs to climb out of the hole caused by this recession. Worse, this growth will not be sustained. This quarter’s growth was driven largely by a restocking of business inventories that will not be repeated in coming quarters. –Josh Bivens, Economic Policy Institute

#GDP growth broke to a level above expectations based primarily on stronger than anticipated inventory… While consumer spending, the housing markets, and export growth all played a role, the 3.4% contribution to headline growth from inventory expansions remains easily the biggest factor in today’s GDP release… Also note that much of the inventory improvement was limited to non-durable goods and the auto industry, the latter of which is building inventories with questionable short term sales prospects. This inventory-driven GDP number also calls into question the sustainability of this type of growth–there’s no reason to anticipate that inventories will continue to build aggressively with consumer spending remaining somewhat stagnant. –Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott

#Real final sales , GDP minus the impact of inventory adjustments, rose by 2.2% as compared to a long run average of about 2.7%. While today’s reading was better than expectations, we must note that real final sales rose by 5.6% or so on average through 1983. Gross domestic purchases, which measure purchases of both goods and services by U.S. residents wherever they are produced, rose by 5.1% in the quarter. This is a very impressive reading, having averaged 3% dating back to 1975. In 1983 though, this measure averaged 9.35% per quarter. –Dan Greenhaus, Miller Tabak

#Growth was also healthy beyond the inventory component, however. Real final sales (GDP less the contribution from inventories) rose by 2.2%, up from 1.5% in Q3. We had expected an increase of just 1.1% in final sales, so the report was meaningfully better than expected. Accelerating growth in final sales is the best evidence yet that the economy has turned the corner and is unlikely to slip back into recession. –Zach Pandl, Nomura Global Economics

[edit on 30-1-2010 by SLAYER69]

Something to think about, and I don't have hard data, but many of the jobs lost were "bubble jobs" i.e. jobs that were only created because of the "bubble" economy. What we could be seeing is the economy re-setting itself to the state it can sustain going forward and may be stronger in the long run, for doing so.

I doubt we will see the same numbers of jobs return that were lost, in the same industries that they were lost in. Workers who have been replaced or displaced will have to consider this. People cannot sit around on unemployment and wait for jobs to return that may never come back...





[edit on 30-1-2010 by LadySkadi]

reply to post by LadySkadi



The only problem with your logic is that the "bubble" jobs that were lost originated due to the manufacturing jobs that have been lost over the past 30 years. So if the bubbles have been lost and manufacturing jobs are finished......what possible jobs are Americans going to default to?

Look the US economy is DONE! FOR A LONG TIME! Our standard of living has been propped up by wars and a debt based monetary system. Some people REALLY FAIL to grasp just how serious the situation is. Reminds of the situation out here in California with our water supply. The west has a complete water crisis but you'd never know it out here. People keep living like nothing has happened. That's what's going on with the economy. Generation after generation has been living off the wealth, innovation, prosperity and work of our great grandparents and grand parents. Besides the internet what major breakthrough has revitalized the US economy? Or what will?

reply to post by Zosynspiracy
Well, it's not a problem with my logic per se, but it is a problem. It's a very good question. What industry will replace the Manufacturing and compensate for the jobs that we lost? What will be the next industry to lift us up? Some say it will be in Technology. But, the question has yet to be answered... we will see.







[edit on 30-1-2010 by LadySkadi]

Originally posted by Zosynspiracy
Look the US economy is DONE! FOR A LONG TIME! Our standard of living has been propped up by wars and a debt based monetary system. Some people REALLY FAIL to grasp just how serious the situation is.

True however some people are reading way too much into it.

Besides the internet what major breakthrough has revitalized the US economy? Or what will?

NANOTECHNOLOGY

Manufactured products are made from atoms. The properties of those products depend on how those atoms are arranged. If we rearrange the atoms in coal we can make diamond. If we rearrange the atoms in sand (and add a few other trace elements) we can make computer chips. If we rearrange the atoms in dirt, water and air we can make potatoes.

Todays manufacturing methods are very crude at the molecular level. Casting, grinding, milling and even lithography move atoms in great thundering statistical herds. It's like trying to make things out of LEGO blocks with boxing gloves on your hands. Yes, you can push the LEGO blocks into great heaps and pile them up, but you can't really snap them together the way you'd like.

In the future, nanotechnology will let us take off the boxing gloves. We'll be able to snap together the fundamental building blocks of nature easily, inexpensively and in most of the ways permitted by the laws of physics. This will be essential if we are to continue the revolution in computer hardware beyond about the next decade, and will also let us fabricate an entire new generation of products that are cleaner, stronger, lighter, and more precise.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c6a55983cdfc.gif[/atsimg]
Medical Benefits of Molecular Manufacturing

Medicine, especially medical research, demands cutting-edge, high-tech tools. These are naturally expensive to manufacture, especially if they must be kept sterile. With a molecular manufacturing system, the cost of production is unrelated to the complexity of the product. Design and testing will still be costly, but once designed, tools can be manufactured in quantity.

The incredibly small component size will allow new kinds of tools: for example, a complete surgical robot can be built smaller than a hypodermic needle, and a chemical sensor can be small enough to fit inside a living cell. Because the human body is so complex, accurate knowledge of its state requires gathering large amounts of data. The small size and low cost of nano-built sensors will allow hundreds or thousands of them to be used for routine diagnosis, whereas today only a few data points can be gathered. Integrated sampling and analysis tools will allow real-time monitoring; there will be no need for a separate "lab" to run the tests.