The Chinese economy grows as USA fails, page 2

reply to post by SLAYER69

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They are an economic superpower. They equalled America's GDP for a day in the 90s.

My point is this China bubble will last for a while. Heck, America depended on thin air for 75 years, innit?

I personally think that China is just playing with the numbers to make themselves look better than what they really are.

Bogus data?
China’s data are suspect, to say the least. For instance, the government there considered loans issued to companies by the government as part of the GDP. In other words, billions and billions of dollars worth of stimulus loans suddenly helped to bump up China’s GDP. This questionable way with statistics creates a false image of growth.

Another example of why we should question the extent of China’s “recovery” can be measured by power consumption. When the GDP growth for the first six months was announced, the Chinese also said that overall electricity consumption dropped sharply. How can you have a boom time in manufacturing without using electricity?

www.skykasper.com...

reply to post by autowrench

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That in itself is disgusting and there should actually be laws against it,
what would really not be a surprise is if it was traced back to to a company owned by what I would consider traitors, just like our flags, I needed a new one and had to search for one made in the states.

reply to post by eldard

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U.S. Economy: Leading Index Climbs More Than Forecast

More than $2 trillion in government stimulus programs worldwide have revived growth from the U.S. to China, signaling the worst global recession in the post-World War II era has come to an end. Caterpillar Inc. and Google Inc. are among the American companies reporting better-than-anticipated earnings and saying sales will probably improve next year.

“The recovery is here and it’s going to get a little stronger too,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York

reply to post by jam321

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What are their categories used in their index?
Are they considering currency, investments, trades, stocks as production related lines within their reports?
I'm not a negative nancy or doom sayer yet I do not see how this will not pop soon and the fall out be a great undoing or catalyst for panic and revolt, especially timed well with winter knocking.


[edit on 22-10-2009 by HappilyEverAfter]

reply to post by SLAYER69

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I saw that earlier and looked at the position eliminations and layoffs imposed to reach those numbers and realized it wasnt a true gain, it was achieved due to an adjustment, sadly once again its personnel.

reply to post by HappilyEverAfter

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Really not sure what categories they use in their index.

I just find it interesting that production is increasing while exports are decreasing.

Maybe I am wrong. But wouldn't that mean that they may be making more than what they can sell which will ultimately lead to excesses.

China’s exports fell the least in nine months in September and new lending grew by more than economists forecast as the world’s third-largest economy leads the recovery from the global recession.

Exports declined 15.2 percent from a year earlier, the customs bureau said on its Web site today. Imports dropped the least in 11 months. New local-currency loans climbed to 516.7 billion yuan ($75.7 billion) from 410.4 billion yuan in August, the central bank said.

China’s shipments to the U.S. and European Union rose to the highest since exports collapsed in November, spurring gains in stocks worldwide on optimism the global economy is strengthening. China may report next week that its economic growth accelerated to 8.9 percent in the third quarter, a Bloomberg News survey of economists shows.

www.bloomberg.com...

reply to post by jam321

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Maybe youve seen this prior, but alot of goods are sitting, and Im thinking there are some numbers being played with as well as far as production, and profits, I actually believe its worse than reported.

www.dailymail.co.uk...

reply to post by ziggy1706

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you think you have more freedom than a Chinese right now

reply to post by SLAYER69

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totally agree, the Chinese economy is still in a developing phase and face many challenges and issues, bubbles included....

the difference will be in the people's confidence of how it will work out eventually, while in China the people feel they are becoming untouchable with a limitless prospective, in USA the people are pessimistic and feel the USA has peaked.... a pity to see a great nation collapsing like this way, the core of the problem in USA is not China or any other outside forces, it is the people inside USA who already lost faith.....

From: China's hidden debt problem

China's debt may be closer to 60% of GDP, putting it in virtually the same league as the United States, which was at 70% at the end of 2008 before it launched its massive economic stimulus program.

China's biggest problem and greatest risk is its debt. The external debt is visible and huge. The internal debt is also about 20% of GDP and is even shakier as many of these are simply defunct and should have been written off. China, unlike the US has a much less efficient system, both the Socialist/Communist government and the good old boy business system which is so much like Japan before the collapse in Japan in the 90's.

China made the huge loans to the US this year thinking they would be used wisely by Obama and Congress to stimulate business and the economy so that the US would return to the China market place to help out the Chinese economy. That didn't happen. Instead the Stimulus was wasted on make work pork, union paybacks, and political paybacks. It wasn't used to stimulate business and give business the breaks it needed to get the economy rolling again and make new jobs. We have already lost 2,700,000 jobs and rising.

Till the US gets rolling again, China will not go anywhere and there is no hope in site with this president and Congress. Right now it is a do nothing Obama leading a do nothing US.

With the right leadership this country could be up and rolling again in less than a year and be around 15 Trillion. That would be 3 times larger than it's largest competitor nation.

Who might that be? China? Russia? Keep guessing...



[edit on 22/10/09 by plumranch]

reply to post by jam321

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that is what happened in the Great Leap Forward, playing with the data and figure causing a well intended policy to become disastrous, if Chinese leaders still repeat the same stupid disastrous mistake, then China does deserve to go down under and to be bursted, unfortunately for the doom-thinkers, this country is still in a developing phase which the over majority is only starting to realize they are lucky enough to witness the transformation of a country full of poverty towards a country full of opportunities and prosperity. The export-based based model in the coastal provinces has done it's job, it will last for a few more decades because of the established infrastructure, it is time for changing this model, new policies from the central government are being introduced, and you will see a change of economic structure in China, for now it is still go China.....

reply to post by dooper

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Correction of one thing, China has no difficulty in finding labor, it has still hundreds of millions available workforces, it is the COMPANIES in the more developed coastal provinces who are facing difficulties finding the labor, these are the manufacturers who did not catch up in time with the right processes and who were unwilling to move to other areas, or because after calculating still believing the underdeveloped （infrastructure etc) areas inland is still not worth the move of easier finding slightly cheaper labor. Labor issue is the companies, not China's.

reply to post by plumranch

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Competitors....it is amusing how Westerners love to speak in terms of competition at all level.... maybe this is one of the reason why a big portion of the US policies is still by conquering and still the resources you want for your country.....

Anyhow, don't forget one thing, in terms of population USA is a HUGE country, almost three times the size of Japan the closest so-called developed "competitor".... so no wonder the economic size should be also at least twice as big.... if we talk about population and people do stop to look into the differences of culture and take away borders eventually certain areas (aka countries) will inevitably become bigger than USA, India and China... give them enough time and peace and it will happen inevitably, be glad that somewhere far away from your neighbour the Indian or Chinese is also living at the same basic standards Americans are enjoying.....

why be afraid of it instead?????? there are still plenty of resources in the world, and with the daily technological revolution new technologies are resolving problems of so-called scarcity, there is NO scarcity in the world, it is the people who think in terms of competition who created the idea that everything is scarce..... causing people to wanna compete for the resources around themselves.... scarcity is a concept that is merely lied upon and abused by certain people to keep their own power in place.....

[edit on 22-10-2009 by yiersan]

reply to post by yiersan

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Competitors....it is amusing how Westerners love to speak in terms of competition at all level.

And Easterners are not competitive?

I simply meant competitors in the sense that statistics compete with themselves and yes the Japanese (not the Canadians, Brazilians, any Europeans unless you consider the EU to be an entity) are 1/3 the size in terms of GDP. A FACT that nearly everyone insists on ignoring and I like my fellow Americans don't even give a rip. Just wanted everyone to know and be edified (educated).

Let me begin by saying that I have stared your posts so I think we agree on some things.

. maybe this is one of the reason why a big portion of the US policies is still by conquering and still the resources you want for your country.....

I have a problem with "conquered". For instance I don't think present day Japan and Germany feel that they are a conquered country. Spain conquered the Mayans and Incas, the US occupies and replaces governments with (hopefully) better governments.

Anyhow, don't forget one thing, in terms of population USA is a HUGE country, almost three times the size of Japan the closest so-called developed "competitor".... so no wonder the economic size should be also at least twice as big.

And economy is what makes one economic power more powerful than another. Is what puts money in the bank, buys goods, puts battleships on the worlds seas, powers the worlds economy, brings enemies to the bargaining table and on and on!

if we talk about population and people do stop to look into the differences of culture and take away borders eventually certain areas (aka countries) will inevitably become bigger than USA, India and China...

I have no problem with that eventually they will. But not in the next 50 to 100 years and there is good reason for that. You Easterners have a whole lot of problems (as I have mentioned) that the US doesn't.

Make a guess about what Eastern country might, might have a chance at challenging the US on a world power scale in the next hundred years...

I'm waiting...

Originally posted by plumranch
reply to post by yiersan
I have no problem with that eventually they will. But not in the next 50 to 100 years and there is good reason for that.

You have a crystal ball or something? I remember "experts" used to say that China won't overtake Japan for X number of years. Guess what? The only difference now is some $600 billion. That's just one Shell.

Make a guess about what Eastern country might, might have a chance at challenging the US on a world power scale in the next hundred years...

I'm waiting...

India? No they won't. It would take several generations before they(collectively) think on the level of current developed nations. The Chinese will get there faster. Look at Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

reply to post by HappilyEverAfter

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Just more evidence that the economists were right when they started saying three or four years ago that the US dominance was sliding, and that either Russia or China were in line to become the next global leader.

It's inevitable, the US simply cannot afford to be the global power any more. This should have been clear when it was shown that America wasn't producing. The same happened with Britain.
As soon as a nation stops producing enough to remain self-sufficient, their dominance and power will inevitably collapse because they rely on outside forces. That causes weakness and dependence on others, which is NEVER conducive to leadership in any way.

The ONLY way any nation can remain economically sound in our current world of global trade is for it to be able to produce enough for its own people. As soon as your production slips below the threshold, dominance begins to move to another. This will happen over and over if we continue with global trade the way we have been. If China or Russia become the next dominant power, and they fall into the same comfortable trap, become greedy and want more and more, the same will happen to them and power will again shift to the next large nation still above that production/population threshold.

If China becomes the next global power, they'll likely become comfortable but greedy, they'll drop production in favour of service. In about twenty years they'll be unable to feed their own people themselves and will be importing from the US and others (because by this time you will have had to have reverted back to agriculture to survive). And then the power will shift again.

That's the way I see it anyway.

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