reply to post by Anti-Evil
I am a professional advisor and you are wrong my friend, and I'll explain why. There are two types of stock movement, macro and technical. Macro is
when a stock, currency, commodity, etc are moving because of an underlying issue. Technical movements are when something is moving for reasons as you
describe such as charts and moving averages. Sometimes they can couple, but if the underlying macro reason for the move isn't fixed, the overall
direction of the asset in question won't change.
Given why the dollar is getting crushed, this movement isn't likely to abate for sometime. There will be times when the dollar as small rally's or
movements up. But you also have to keep in mind that the dollar has its own value to each currency out there. So it may rally against the British
Pound, but continue its decline against the Japanese Yen.
Additionally, for something to make a purely technical movement, there needs to be a huge amount of people trading the same way. The US dollar is so
widely traded and used, and people speculating on dollar movements only account for 10% of dollar trades. My point is, your reasoning is sound if we
are talking about a stock like Google or Apple, but it is wrong when applied to the dollar in this current environment.