Will the Australia economy keep its head above water?

reply to post by Amagnon


Carbon Emissions Scheme , Cap and Trade ........its got that many names that I just call it what it is......Carbon Tax. A rose by any other name.......

They haven't implemented it YET but it's coming down the pike.
The details and costings of the Carbon Emissions Scheme are being nutted
out by the Libs at the moment, so it's definately going to happen at some point.

The carbon tax is going to push what little manufacturing is left overseas. Because it will be to expensive for Australian companies to compete with China.
It is basically going to push up the overheads for every business and household in the country, and of course this always effects the consumer and this time it will be 2 fold at home and the price of goods will increase.
We are paying off our stimulus package and then some.


Edit - Typo




[edit on 19/10/2009 by wycky]

reply to post by wycky


Yeah, either all our manufacturing jobs will go to China OR the added costs will be transferred to the consumers.
I can see a lot of companies going bankrupt when this kicks in. No matter how Labour tries to convince us otherwise.

Originally posted by wycky

Originally posted by dingleberry77
reply to post by beta.services

 

Hey, I think the housing shortage argument is a bit of a joke. Sure, there might not be a lot of new housing being built, but that's not the point. Where is all the money going to come from to keep the bubble inflated. Wages and hours are going down, and banks aren't willing to lend as much. Who's going to continue to pay the stupid housing prices?

I agree.
I have a relative in Mexico who is wealthy.
He came to Australia to visit and while here looked at some properties to invest in, he couldn't beleive the prices, he has properties all over Mexico and the US and a few in other countires, he bought nothing in Australia, he said it comparison its not worth it, and beleive me he is not short on cash.

That doesn't surprise me in the least. I travelled to Canada before the GFC hit and was blown away by the affluence there. They have so much more variety and choice and the price of everything there was so cheap! We only have a mere fraction of what they have IMHO. And I was told that the Canadians complain that they don't have as much variety and choice as the Americans across the border. So it truly boggles the mind to think how much more a country can have!? Even my relatives told me that with all the stuff we have we could feed the whole world 10x over at least! And it's so true. I saw some beautiful cottage houses for a mere $50,000 otherwise if you want a 2 story house (and in this case it'd be more like a 3 story house since they make use of the basement to create another level with toilet, bedrooms, living quarters, kitchen, etc.) you could pay roughly $400,000-500,000 or less--you had so many you could choose from that you could adjust your budget accordingly. Whereas here in Oz the housing prices are unaffordable and unrealistic--totally overinflated. I mean it's cheaper demolishing your house and rebuilding on your own land (if you live close to the city or in the 'burbs) for $300,000 rather than buy a new house somewhere in the outer 'burbs for $500,000 where you have to commute longer etc. to get to the shops, schools, rail, jobs, etc. I just saw one 2 story house the other day in the southeastern suburbs of Melbourne go for 1 mill!!! And it wasn't even brick! It was aluminum or something--whatever it is that looks like it's weatherboard or clapboard, but isn't?! (I don't know what the term is).

[edit on 20-10-2009 by theluckycountry]

I have absolutely no idea why house prices in Oz are so expensive.
We're 24 hours flight away from the rest of the world, which is a huge burden for business people.
And although our cities are beautiful it's not like they are the pinnacle in world
culture or history or anything to warrant such hefty prices.

I've read that Sydney is only just less expensive than New York and is more expensive than cities like France and London.

Ridiculous.

Sorry to Australians on here but I think you're going to have a tough time of it. I know your country pretty well (worked there for some time) and my take is that the optimisim is misplaced.

Sure, Australia's got mineral resources etc - lucky. But the water situation is severe, especially in a country that's mostly desert and the population is mostly clustered in cities and their suburbs. Your farmers are feeling the crunch and Aborigine tribes and urban groups suffer the same problems they've suffered for a few hundred years after white colonisation.

The most negative fact apart from that harsh reality of post colonial effect is the billions of dollars that have been given in funding for the native people. Where is it going?

It doesn't seem to be making any real difference and there are the same ol interest groups in the native community pocketing the money or the same problems of money being squandered on drink and drugs. Non native govts and individuals are also misusing the money.

Whites talk about the 'handout' mentality and tho I've heard Australians accused of being racist when they say this, sorry it's a big problem among some Aborigines.

As for the job future etc - I saw too much of a welfare mentality. Australia's generous - financial help with phone bills, rent, you name it. It is targeted but the level of welfare Australians can get is probably the highest in the world apart from Sweden, Denmark, the UK.

I also saw that many new migrant arrivals are also developing the welfare dependency, refugees too. Australia also changed its education system some time back to make it an international industry. There are some bad colleges out there that try to make a killing off international students.

There's also the issue of non Australians who study in Australia to be able to get residency after their studies. They compete with Australians for jobs and housing because Australians are too dependent on govt jobs and there's not enough careers in private business.

Housing? The bubble is plain dumb. Australians shouldn't be in a housing bubble. A lot of its artificial but some of it is because of the shortage of housing that came with giving priority to refugees and migrants. I don't think ordinary Australians will want to suck it up for much longer.

I love your country and the attitude of a lot of people there but if the economy nosedives then it's not going to be a good place with all those welfare dependent and the high taxes that are paid to support them plus the lack of job opportunities.

reply to post by dontbelievehype


Wow, for someone who doesnt live here, you have enough Xenophobia or bigotry against our Ingingenous people to cover the rest of us. Thx. Your entire responce is pretty much blaming immigrants/refugees or indigenous people for the a potential collapse in the OZ economy LMAO. So as we have had this indigneous program and migrant and refugee program for some time and it hasn't collapsed us, how will it now? We spend more on "us" than on them.

Not only do you express the Xenophobic ideal but our Indigenous popoulation who we have managed to pretty much reduce to a mere semblence of the complex societies that use to be, you also take exception to and blame for our potential country collapase.

Where are you from? Perhaps we just import more of you the "right" kind of person Your clone-migrants/refugees can finish off the job we started on disseminating the original inhabitants of this land, who incidently we spend NO WHERE near the same amount of money as we do on oursleves. Our govt funding to manage unemployment, public education, obesity and other medical issues relating to alcohol and cigarettes within 'white' communities BLOWS our indingenous funding program out of the water. But because they are black I see your point, why should they be covered off with the basic human right of education and health, we've taken everything else, give them nothing at all!!! Let them stay intoxicated from loss of identity, yeah, your so right, they deserve nothing. They ARE responsible for the GFC and Australia will go into a recession because of them, my god, how did we not see this before?...Our years of support (after near genocide or indigenous cleansing programe) is the reason we will suffer in this financial crisis.

This country was built on the backs of migrants, you have no idea what you are talking about. My father who came as a refugee without 20 cents in his pocket, opened a business and employed many many people. I was educated by his private funding not government, and now also employ many people. The hand outs you talk about, hasn't collapsed us through the worst of the GFC, when the rest of the world nearly impolded. The handouts are designed to encourage self sufficiency and contribution back to society, not perfect, but a decent model.

An indigenous Australian taught me, the land doesnt belong to us, we belong to it, I apply that rule when letting any human exist here and provide for their family. Who am I to become a racist xenophobic loser when my own family went through the same deal and managed to help create this great country.
Zazz, a proud WOG.




[edit on 21-10-2009 by zazzafrazz]

Umm, you picked out what you wanted to get politically correct about and ignored the perspective which I was putting the whole Aborigines issue in. You opted to go on a rant, not a rational analysis.

Your rant included being taught by Indigenous people etc etc. You're missing the points.

I won't get into the shocking revelations of child abuse in a number of native communities plus the other shocking revelations of millions and millions squandered on giving family members government money which went into four wheel drives, alcohol etc.

I was in Australia when these terrible things came out and I know for a fact the reality came out then but it had gone on far longer. The Aborigine issues are a festering sore in Australia and billions hasn't solved the housing, health and other huge problems. That's something that will keep dragging Australia down and it's not and won't help the country's economic health in these desperate global meltdown times.

Yes, you are the offspring of migrants who came to Australia and did well. Congratulations, yours is a common story in my home country the US too. I'm the son of migrants and grew up in the working class migrant made good and got educaton and employment way beyond what would have been the case anywhere else (except countries like Australia, Canada).

BUT that was THEN, this is NOW. If you think the Australia and US of before is the same now you are seriously deluded (as well as having very little to offer in the way of analysis or counter arguments.).

When I worked in Australia at employment that was not run of the mill but work that exposed me to much firsthand knowledge of govt, finance etc, I was surprised to see just how dependent Australians are on a heavily hit midde class. The middle class (including the 'upper' middle class of professionals) in Aus carries a very big tax burden to pay for all that welfare.

This can't be sustained. Too few people support a welfare system that in its own way is as big as that in the UK - with far less people. Part of the problem is Aus is attracting the needy rather than those who can help the tax base. No it's not like the old days of your dad or my dad. Those days are gone.

Australia's second great migration and building period was from the immediate post War period to the 70s.

The uncomfortable truth is Australians have an apathy of the kind that there's a strong notion that things are going to go on forever. Water. Welfare. Money for each and every cause and all the needy who come to live off the welfare state because it's damned hard to find jobs in Australia.

Australia lacks a genuinely strong private sector that can consistently provide new jobs. Australians are too dependent on government in every way. It can't last - the terrain and the lack of water are huge problems that aren't being faced.

Housing is a big problem because the population is concentrated in urban areas. People will not move to the country. New arrivals like refugees and migrants are in need rather than being able to contribute. With the economy down their contribution will be delayed a long time.

The fact you went on to a rant about how rosy everything is and how I was supposedly 'blaming' certain groups shows the kind of denial that will have Australia in big trouble sooner rather than later.

Id like to add one small thing here......

have all the aussies here seen the reports in the last week or so of talk in the papers of the possibility if 7 consecutive rate rises in the next few months?

even talk of that the rates might rise .5% onmelbiurne cup day?

My take on this is that it is a major scare tactic....something is going to happen that will bring about the real economic depression that everyone has been speculating over...the banks know it is coming so they are scaring everyone into thinking, maybe I should fix my interest rates now......

so the average person fixes their home interest rates at say 6% for arguements sake...not sure exactly what it is.......but its a bit higher than the variable rate....then in a month time, the "incident" occurs....economies "really" crash to the point that rates will be as close to zero% here as they have ever been and a large portion of thepopulation is paying this 6% + fixed interest rate that they were scared into fixing.

anyone else see this coming?

reply to post by dontbelievehype


No You missed the point, this topic is about will the Australian economy stay afloat in this constructed GFC, and again youve just had a RANT at indigenous people and their way of life/plight, which have nothing to do with the economy, I call racism when I see.

reply to post by Melbourne_Militia


If a depression hits, I don't think it really matters if everyone is fixed at say 6% - everyone and everything will tank anyway.

I think it's more of a scare tactic to get people to buy property and fix, thus keeping the housing bubble inflated.

But at the end of the day who knows? Things are so weird at the moment it's hard to pick. I'm just going to go surfing every day and not worry about it.

reply to post by zazzafrazz


I agree, I call racism too.

See, not one line.

Any (grown up) Australians on this thread willing to keep to the topic and talk about the issues I've raised as somebody who worked in your country?

Australia's weaknesses that will make it vulnerable more and more the current meltdown:

Water in short supply, getting worse because of droughts that won't stop.

Lack of solid, big employing private business to give those needed jobs.

Over dependence on welfare, govt jobs.

Lots of desert that can't be farmed, unwillingness of new arrivals to go to the countryside and lack of political will to make them in order to revive the countryside.

Govts unable to make hard decisions on native issues, refugees, migrants who end up on welfare for a long time.

Housing that's over inflated and in short supply near the city.

Calling adult Australians who can talk about these global meltdown issues in an intelligent way. That's what these forums are for.



[edit on 22-10-2009 by dontbelievehype]

reply to post by dontbelievehype


Perhaps you should have listed it like that to start with

You really can't debate anything rationally to save your life, can you?

I'm glad you've answered - you've actually demonstrated the validity of my questions on this thread.

Obviously you represent those Australians living in the past who are doing themselves no favors by thinking like Santa Claus there's an endless supply of water and money etc when the warning signs to the contrary are around. And who try to censor any debate by screaming the free pass (no brainpower required) of racism when you'd have to supply evidence rather than politically correct or personally resentful assertions.

I'm glad I met Australians who understand what's going on. You're not one of them but it won't stop you posting your sad semi literate 'thoughts'.

Oh and the board has a policy of no one line posts. I know that's a little difficult for you to comprehend because you struggle with expressing yourself - because there's not much to express.

[edit on 22-10-2009 by dontbelievehype]

reply to post by dontbelievehype


Shall I quote you?
What you posted the first time is not what you just posted.

... the billions of dollars that have been given in funding for the native people. Where is it going? It doesn't seem to be making any real difference and there are the same ol interest groups in the native community pocketing the money or the same problems of money being squandered on drink and drugs. Non native govts and individuals are also misusing the money.


I also saw that many new migrant arrivals are also developing the welfare dependency, refugees too.

They compete with Australians for jobs and housing because Australians are too dependent on govt jobs and there's not enough careers in private business.

A lot of its artificial but some of it is because of the shortage of housing that came with giving priority to refugees and migrants. I don't think ordinary Australians will want to suck it up for much longer.

I am a "ordinary australian" who is white enough, blonde enough and green eyed enough for you, but also the daughter of 2 refugees. Who are you to decide what "ordinary Australians" are? All of us bar the indigenous brethren came from somewhere else.

This thread is about the economy, you blamed the indigneous hand outs and welfare, I am entitled as a citizen born here to think you are very misguided. You are welcome to continue disagreeing.
I'd rather this thread disucsses the real issues about the economy.
I adressed your xenophobia and racism above, I will not address you again until you stop attacking indigenous people, refuges /migrants as the source of Australias woes. I dont care whether you think I am semi literate, that's also a personal attack, and irrelavant to the discussion.

EDIT: "I know that's a little difficult for you to comprehend because you struggle with expressing yourself - because there's not much to express. "

If you are unsure of what I am saying feel free to u2u me, but the terms I used to describe your way of thinking are pretty self explanatory and expressed exactly what I think.



[edit on 22-10-2009 by zazzafrazz]

reply to post by dontbelievehype


Hi there im a new member living in Western Australia and i find this thread interesting. i think something has got to happen here in oz and happen soon. I am a self employed man with wife and two kids renting my parents investment property because after using my first home owners grant in a previous relationship and it turning sour within 12 mths. I did not make any profit to speak of from having to sell this house and now like many others i imagine am in a quandery. With house prices so high and banks requiring around 20% deposit how can the average australian realistically find a way into the market to try and gain a foothold? The median house price is $480K. I dont know too many people with a lazy 80 to 100 grand lying around or the ability to raise this much. When the first homeowners grant is dropped things can only go from bad to worse because there wont be assistance for anyone. My partner enquired about Govt housing and was told there was roughly an 11 year wait list...

I'm not surprised. When I was in Australia I saw the bubble and I thought it was crazy because Aus. (apart from the welfare system) is not similar to countries like the UK where housing went thru the roof for a number of reasons.

Australia is largely desert, your water is running out, people won't move to the countryside (including new arrivals like refugees and migrants who are not getting work for some time) and so the availability of public housing has been reduced.

My field of work is in economics so I was interested to see the way in wich Australia keeps taking more and more people tho it's very much a country dependent on taxpayers. There's a lack of private industry to provide the new jobs Australians need.

Regardless of the childish ranting and attacking with the bogeyman word 'racist' of those who find thinking difficult - yes, new arrivals who are not financially secure or independent will cause new strains on housing.

When the demand for housing near or in locations with access to services increases and people can't rely on public housing because it has been earmarked for newcomers then yes, that's part of the cause of the housing bubble.

Another part is the way Australia has sold itself as the place to go for higher education, promising the chance of residency. I know in Sydney one of the causes of housing shortage and hence bubble was the number of international students needing housing.

Prices for house/apartment rent were advertised but the landagents engaged in an auction type process and international students who offered more got the place. Sydney newspapers ran articles on this.Australia's getting caught up in the market forces that once upon a time they had more protection against.

Your population will hit 21 million - and I think that's scary. The US is screwed up in many ways but I think Australia had the opportunity to be in much better shape than it is.

I'm American but I had interesting discussions with Australians when I lived there and they said that the public wanted to debate the numbers of new people (especially those who would wind up being welfare dependent) coming in to the country but political correctness and vocal interest groups who refuse to engage in rational debate are stopping this needed debate.

And speaking of housing - one of my Australian friends emailed me with the news stories of yet again the huge problem of Aborigines' housing. This problem never ends regardless of the billions given so that tells all normal people with the ability to think that things are not being done correctly there by the government and others.

I feel regret that Australians have been shortchanged by their government - you would have been in a much better economic position and you should have been.

[edit on 22-10-2009 by dontbelievehype]

[edit on 22-10-2009 by dontbelievehype]

reply to post by dontbelievehype


Some of your statements are on the money... some are just generalizations and should be treated as such. I doubt I can add anything that hasn't already been said in the debate other than to say that I believe Australia will weather the storm better than the US and some European nations.

Australia's economy is currently boosted by riding the Asian economic wave... China owns America's ass right now. Australia's economic relationship with China is quite positive in comparison - though we share some of the pitfalls associated with the economic down turn due to globalization. It's inevitable. When America sneezes, we all get a cold!

The amount of money thrown at the Indigenous Australians is barely worth a mention by global standards. It's a straw man. That's where I disagree with you the most.

As far as international students and PR are concerned.. well... that's right up my alley, I teach them. You are off the mark there simply for the fact that even with the education we attempt to give them, they only get the crappy jobs us Aussies don't want... and that's only the students that are successful in gaining PR (which is a small percentage)... We actually have the better side of the stick with the financial trade-off. It's worth billions to Victoria alone each year.

IRM

Originally posted by dontbelievehype
I was in Australia when these terrible things came out and I know for a fact the reality came out then but it had gone on far longer. The Aborigine issues are a festering sore in Australia and billions hasn't solved the housing, health and other huge problems. That's something that will keep dragging Australia down and it's not and won't help the country's economic health in these desperate global meltdown times.

How f*cken dare you blame our economic problems on our indigineous residents....how f*cken dare you

You do not have a clue about what it means or what it is to be Australian.

You have no clue about how our country works or the respect that we have for each other. You also have no idea about the services, non-government organisations that are here to assist aboriginal
people, or the measure we have taken to help assist them to get the education they so badly deserve.

You dont solve problems by blaming one race of people.....especially considering you dont live here, and I doubt you have never even spoken to an indigenous person here about how difficult it is for them to function.

I didnt think ignorance could get any worse on this website, but you just took it to a brand new level.

So to you...shut the hell up....and go put your head up your own behind in your own country