I personally think its not over yet,I wish it wasnt so but thats what my guts telling me.Alot of homes in Oz are over priced and have been for awhile so I think we are in for a crash on Real Estate.I feel for home ownwers,but I rent and it might be good for me.

The Aussie economy will not crash, it will however find balance.

Real estate for instance has been notoriously inflated to stupid prices over the last few decades.

So do not become upset when these prices crash and many investors lose a bundle because of this.

The economy will find it's own balance despite the many attempts by brokers to inflate and imbalance it.

I personally believe that the Aussie industrial sector is quickly changing just like the American or European economies.

There are new types of jobs appearing and new sectors of the economy being uncovered, as the OLD jobs are disappearing and moving to third world nations. (manufacturing etc)

So do not fret, just update your thinking and move on to the new economy that is rising from the ashes of the old one. Consider it an emerging job opportunity.

For example, consider how many legit jobs you can get on the Internet in Australia. These jobs did not exist 10years ago. But they do now.

And in 10 more years this will be the central economic marketplace, if it is not already.

So in short, NO the Australian economy will not collapse. Neither did America's despite what others will claim.

The economy will SHIFT to a new paradigm though, this is for certain.
Balance will always be found.

Good luck, and keep pushing ahead my friends across the Pacific!

Australian property prices may be overpriced. But in the near future we still have a major housing shortage and until new builds catch up to demand there is little room for a crash.

We do not have any of the fundamental issues that caused the US property crash. In that, most people that have purchased homes over the last few years were actually means tested to be able to afford them.

In the short term, investors that over reached during the boom and are struggling to keep additional investment properties may be forced to sell. And although this may not be an insignificant number, there are still buyers, so it would represent an adjustment, and not a crash.

Until China eases on its resource demands, Australia will continue to be well insulated from a financial crash.

Originally posted by muzzleflash

So in short, NO the Australian economy will not collapse. Neither did America's despite what others will claim.

I think the Australian economy will remain fairly robust because it is underpinned by commodities. Regardless of what else people DON'T need - they will always need food and raw materials - although demand may slump.

Housing prices falling, and interest rates increasing may cause some problems - try to cut debt and increase savings - diversify into commodities and commodity stocks - or bullion.


The American economy has NOT collapsed - YET!

While I am not an expert in a conventional sense - there aren't many on ATS I think who have a better understanding on whats going on with the US and global economy than myself - not that are posting anyhow.

The US economy is being held (purposefully) in a deflationary depression (thats right, depression).

The purpose of this seems self evident - they wish to cause cause domestic bankruptcies. They WANT to force people out of their real estate. The real estate is then transferred through whatever lender - and is washed clean and held by the Fed. This is GRAND LARCENY!

The overflowing 'stimulus' package is a ruse - it was simply to inject liquidity into favored BANKS - not into the economy. This huge amount of liquidity is splashing around in those commercial banks - and they are plugging it willy nilly into the stock market. This has lead the surge of the US market over 10,000. The current P/E of the index is ... wait for it .... 140!!!!

Tell me that is nice and sustainable. It is a deadly bubble - and any moron worth a dime can see it.

To save the domestic economy - the US dollar MUST be devalued by the Federal Reserve. But they ARE NOT DOING IT!? Why not?

Because they don't WANT to preserve the domestic economy - is the only conclusion you can come to.

My view is they want to collect the real estate - in fact they want the commercial defaults to start rolling in more.

Perhaps if you were not so cynical you might say, it is due to international pressure (from China? From Saudi?).

Or perhaps they want to take their hands off the wheel and let the market reset the value of the dollar? That way they can't be directly blamed.

In the meantime - average Americans are going BANKRUPT! The economy is getting crushed - and the false spin up of the markets purely on investment bank speculation is keeping everyones eyes off the road kill.

The exponential increase in debt is required by the fiat currency system - that debt is going vertical is expected, and required. However, it is clearly at the end of its theoretical limit - and banks simply will not lend into a deflationary economy - so despite all the talk of 'injection' of cash - what we are seeing is a massive CONTRACTION of the effective money supply and economy.

There is plenty of money around - but its sloshing around the banks - they aren't lending - and things are going south fast.

There are really two alternatives;

1) Government spending directly into the domestic economy - in whatever form DOES NOT MATTER. Preferably in infrastructure or something of value - otherwise - just throw money into the streets.

2) Reset the value of the US dollar to a lower value. This decreases debt burdens instantly - freeing up liquidity and stimulating business. The effect would be instantaneous.

The stimulus is a hoax - purely to keep afloat the favored banks so the deflationary economy does not send them bankrupt. It has NO USE AT ALL to the economy, or average citizen.

The crash is coming soon - commercial real estate will crash out - then more bank bailouts - new declared losses for the investment banks .. probably then a bank holiday and a reset of the dollars value must occur.

Its coming fairly soon - within 6 months I would guess - but it could be next week.

Originally posted by dingleberry77
Who's going to continue to pay the stupid housing prices?

Exactly.

This will cause prices to fall, and they Should.

These are market forces that exist and actually have far more control over the situation than any one person does.

That is not the problem, the problem I believe, is that there are people who think they CAN control the economy and will attempt to shape it to their liking. However history shows this always backfires.

Supply vs Demand will find balance, it always does.

The only reason our economic situations look somewhat shabby, is because there are people attempting to manipulate these greater market forces without using any foresight or legitimate planning. This is why the situation looks somewhat dire.

But have no fear. The market will recover from their poking and prodding and will resume it's course towards the emerging future.

An investor is like a sailboat, and the market forces are the wind.

Truthfully - what should and must occur to free people from being slaves to the banks - is sound money must be implemented.

Where money is issued debt free, and preferably NOT by a central authority. Personally I can think of a few ways to do it - but the most WIDELY accepted, simplest system is to use silver and gold.

If only people understood how they are slaves to the banks. Click the link on my sig for a video series that describes the basics.

Originally posted by muzzleflash


These are market forces that exist and actually have far more control over the situation than any one person does.

That is not the problem, the problem I believe, is that there are people who think they CAN control the economy and will attempt to shape it to their liking. However history shows this always backfires.

Supply vs Demand will find balance, it always does.

The only reason our economic situations look somewhat shabby, is because there are people attempting to manipulate these greater market forces without using any foresight or legitimate planning. This is why the situation looks somewhat dire.

But have no fear. The market will recover from their poking and prodding and will resume it's course towards the emerging future.

An investor is like a sailboat, and the market forces are the wind.

You haven't got a CLUE what your talking about.

Ok - the guys controlling the economy - own everything - they own every scrap of money in the western world - and they are owed all of it back with interest.

The economy is going to tank - because it is climbing up an exponential curve of debt. It must - the economy MUST undergo growth to sustain the increasing creation of credit - which is an increasing money supply. If it doesn't - there will not be enough money in the world to repay the debt with interest.

What we are seeing is the final stages where the rate of debt increase is trying to scale the vertical asymptote of an exponential curve - it simply can't do it. The collapse is inevitable.

You cannot use an exponetial money system in a world of finite resources.

The monetary system MUST collapse - then we should kill all the bankers, and nuke the vatican etc - get rid of the problem elites.

Then replace with a sound money system - silver and gold is my favorite - but there are alternatives. Then you outlaw the charging of interest on lending money.

One thing you must also do - is destroy the entire concept of a coroporation - and the entire legal system. If those contiue - then we will quickly arrive back in a slaves world again.

Go read and research - have a look at the video in my sig as a starter to understand money - watch all the parts - my sig only links part 1.

Australia will keep its head above water, if china continues to place bricks under the feet of the Australian.

our mining boom is throwing buckets of cash into our economy, its creating thousands of jobs which pay good.

it causes positive reactions, growth in confidence and spending.

Yes, today Australia looks good.

God forbid should China go down ,if China goes down our mining boom goes down, and that’s the 'only' thing keeping Australia on top.

China will sink, if America sinks.

And America will sink if American people don’t wake up and start a revolution.

The economy will go to hell in a hand basket when this carbon tax gets up and running.

My Aunt who is a Pensioner just saw a 30% increase on her past Electricity Bills and the thing hasn't even started yet.
When the price of essential items like food petrol etc go through the roof, people will spend even less than they are currently and the SHTF big time.

People also are going to be pretty peeved as the carbon compensations will go nowhere near covering the costs.

There already is a huge shell game that's started by the government.
Example......

They recently gave Pensioners a $30 per week raise in their pensions BUT did away with all their allowances which amounted to $650 a year roughly.
The raise equals $1,400 .......so in actual fact Pensioners are really getting
$750 extra a year. But wait, electricity bills just went up 30% which for my Aunt was an extra $60 so times that by 4 and you have $240.
$750 - $240 and we now have .......$510 extra a year.
Which equates to $9 per week.
But wait, grocery items have also risen which equals an extra you guessed it, $9 a week on a $90 a week shop.

So now Pensioners have a taxable extra $1,400 that has already been gobbled up in lost allowances, price rises and now they have the added burden of an extra taxable income that will mean even more income loss.

So they are now WORSE OFF than if they never got the raise in the first place. And yet the government is beating it's chest saying how generous the Pension raise was.

Of course, this doesn't include those in government housing who will have to pay 25% of that in extra rent. Which will also make them 25% worse off than if they didn't get the raise.

So, if they handle the rest of the economy like the hatchet job they just did to the pensioners, then I think we are in a LOT of trouble.

The situation with my Aunts pension has made me realise how figures can be manipulated to where they no longer resemble the reality of the situation.

Just wanted to add that the rise to the old age Pension is expected to have an inflationary effect on the economy and with retired people not getting any real benefit, you have to ask yourself why they even bothered.


[edit on 19-10-2009 by Flighty]

Access Economics was predicting a far worse crash at the start of the GFC.
In fact their predictive modelling for our ecomny is so dissapointing since this trouble, that I rarely read them any more. Though our GDP has been declining and now inclinig we never hit the techincal term for recession.
Whilst we are in Chinas' sights for trade and China is trying to avoid buying US bonds, we will be fine.
The Aussie dollar is now back over 90 cents to the us dollar, a long way from the start of the crash where it hit low 60s, mostly from global panic than a true reflection of our trade value.

If the USD collapses, we will be in trouble, we are the same fiat currency however, our strong trading partnerships with asia, and our raw resources will keep us above water.

[edit on 19-10-2009 by zazzafrazz]

Originally posted by Flighty
The economy will go to hell in a hand basket when this carbon tax gets up and running.

I haven't lived in Oz for about 3 yrs - whats this about carbon tax? They are implementing a carbon tax?

Bah - filthy NWO - lets start killing all the western politicians and bankers - they are worse in the UK and Australia then in the US - its just the standard of living in Oz is still ok.